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  • MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 04, 2022
  • 2022 January 27 10:37

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 04, 2022

    The situation on the European gas market has somewhat stabilized over the past week, although the threat of a conflict escalation Russia-Ukraine still keeps price indices high

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    On a Week 04, the MABUX World Bunker Index remained at stable levels and did not show any significant changes. The 380 HSFO index rose by 1.74 USD: from 544.06 USD/MT to 545.80 USD/MT. The VLSFO index gained a symbolic 0.15 USD: from 695.39 USD/MT to 695.54 USD/MT, while the MGO index added 7.94 USD (from 817.07 USD/MT to 825.01 USD/MT). After solid growth in the first three weeks of the new year, the pace of the uptrend in bunker prices has slowed down.

    The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) weekly average - the difference in price between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - showed a moderate growth by $7.03 during the week, breaking $150.00 mark ($150.99 vs. $143.96 last week). In Rotterdam, the average weekly SS Spread increased even more: from $142.33 to $160.67 (plus $18.34 compared to last week). The average weekly SS Spread index in Singapore, on the contrary, unexpectedly fell by $6.17 to $187.83 from $194.00 last week. In general, SS Spread's performance did not have single trend across the major hubs, but Index was still well above the psychological $ 100 mark. More information is available in the Price Differences section of www.mabux.com.

    The situation on the European gas market has somewhat stabilized over the past week, although the threat of a conflict escalation Russia-Ukraine still keeps price indices high. The price of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) on January 24 was 2333 USD/MT (up 18 USD compared to the previous week). The price of LNG still significantly exceeds the prices of traditional bunker fuels (MGO LS - 805 USD/MT as of 25.01).

    On a Week 04, the correlation of MABUX MBP Index (Market Bunker Prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX Digital Bunker Prices (benchmark) showed that 380 HSFO fuel was overpriced in two ports out of four selected: in Rotterdam - plus $8 and in Houston - plus $ 19. In Singapore and Fujairah, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index registered an underpricing of 380 HSFO by $10 and $4 respectively. There were no significant changes in the MBP/DBP Index’s dynamics.

    VLSFO fuel grade, according to the MABUX MBP/DBP Index, turned out to be overvalued at all selected ports while Houston moved again into the overcharge zone - plus $ 5. For other ports, the overcharge was registered as: plus $ 34 in Rotterdam, plus $ 41 in Singapore and plus $ 45 in Fujairah. Except for Rotterdam, where the overcharge ratio increased by 16 points, changes of the MBP/DBP Index margins at all other ports turned out to be insignificant.

    As for MGO LS, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index registered an underestimation of this fuel grade in three of the four selected ports: Rotterdam - minus $ 13, Singapore - minus $ 23 and Fujairah - minus $ 4. Houston remains the only port where the MABUX MBP/DBP Index recorded overpricing - plus $22.

    In a new white paper, TotalEnergies is forecasting global marine fuel consumption to increase to around 46 Petajoules (PJ)/d by 2050, with oil-based and LNG bunker fuels still accounting for some 21 PJ/d of demand. In its projections for what the marine fuel mix might look like in 2030 and 2050, the company is forecasting bunker demand to rise from the 32 PJ/d level in 2019, to 38 PJ/d in 2030 and 46 PJ/d in 2050. TotalEnergies also reiterates its support for LNG as a key component in shipping’s energy transition. It is forecasting that the LNG bunker market could reach 10 million tonnes by 2025 and suggests it may represent 10% of the bunker market by 2030. Biofuels and biogas will represent only a small part of bunker demand in 2030 and 2050, according to TotalEnergies. Biofuel will account for 1-2 PJ/d in 2030, climbing slowly to around 2.5 PJ/d in 2050. The take-up of biogas will be even less, coming in at under 1 PJ/d in 2030 and rising to around 2 PJ/d in 2050. Electricity is set to match biofuel demand by 2050, at around 2.5 PJ/d.  The demand for hydrogen-based fuels, which covers H2, e-fuels (H2 + CO2), methanol and ammonia is expected to ramp up from around 1 PJ/d in 2030 to 17 PJ/d in 2050, which is still around 4 PJ/d behind the combined total of oil-based and LNG bunker fuels.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX

2022 May 29

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11:38 Port of Virginia to implement a dredging project to accommodate two-way traffic of ultra-large container ships
10:27 CMA CGM further develops the environmental projects portfolio included in POSITIVE OFFSET

2022 May 28

16:31 18 students appointed as inaugural batch of MaritimeSG Youth Ambassadors
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11:29 SSF to help increase the preparedness of French Navy in collaboration with ECOsubsea and Naval Group
10:53 Northern Marine executes MOU with Provaris as technical partner for GH2 carrier development program

2022 May 27

18:37 First steel cut at Flensburger Schiffbau-Gesellschaft for SeaRoad’s newbuild ro-ro vessel
18:07 Houlder collaborates on autonomous vessel project with Maritime and Coastguard Agency
17:50 IAA PortNews’ summary of previous week news
17:37 Siemens to build one of Europe’s largest shore power connections in Kiel
17:34 Any new investments in fossil fuels is “moral and economic madness” - Ship It Zero
17:29 HII’s Newport News Shipbuilding to hire thousands this year to meet the shipbuilding needs of the Navy
17:16 Russian crude exports remain high - Vortexa
17:06 Member approval of North and Standard Club merger
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16:28 USCG assists 2 aboard disabled sailing vessel off Galveston
14:43 U.S. scrubber barge propelled by SCHOTTEL
14:22 Austal Australia delivers 15th Guardian Class Patrol Boat
13:44 The Port of Tallinn and the Port of Gdynia sign a letter of intent on cooperation in the field of hydrogen management
13:02 U.S. and French Navy ships to visit Helsinki
12:40 Special Economic Zone ‘Ust-Luga’ established in the Leningrad Region
12:12 Three Saudi ports hit world records on CPPI 2021
11:35 Kostroma Plant of Marine Equipment delivers survey ship of Project 3330
11:12 Shipbuilding, Ship Repair Corporation launches yet another non-self-propelled dredger of Project 4395
10:24 Enauta’s FPSO Atlanta to be operated to ABS Class
10:07 Arkhangelsk based Association “Sozvezdye” supports Ship Repair, Modernization and Components Conference
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09:11 Crude oil futures decrease after a recent growth
08:52 MABUX: Bunker prices may continue to rise on May 27

2022 May 26

18:06 Russian Maritime Register of Shipping introduces ship’s carbon intensity calculation tool
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17:06 Boskalis receives approval for sale KST and Maju to Rimorchiatori Mediterrane
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15:04 Ardmore Shipping joins the All Aboard Alliance
15:00 Petronas LNG receives a new W-MAX Class LNG carrier
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08:55 MABUX: Bunker prices may increase on May 26

2022 May 25

18:15 Maersk Supply Service wins long-term marine services contract in Angola