• 2019 September 11 16:41

    DNV GL releases Maritime Forecast to 2050


    DNV GL-Maritime has released the third edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050 at London International Shipping Week 2019 (LISW). The forecast examines the future of the shipping industry in a rapidly changing global energy landscape. This year’s report focusses on the challenge of reducing the carbon intensity of the global fleet to meet the ambitious targets set by the imo’s greenhouse gas reduction (ghg) strategy.

    “Existing technology can deliver the future we desire – including meeting the 1.5°C target set out in the Paris Agreement,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV GL. “So far, support for the energy transition has been too sporadic. We need a broad and coordinated policy agenda that supports new technologies as they emerge and sustains that support through the build-out phase.”

    A combination of external market pressure and the ambitious direction set by IMO means that the challenge of decarbonization has been laid squarely on shipping’s doorstep. To answer the question of how shipping will rise to meet the challenge, this year’s Maritime Forecast examines how the world fleet measures up in terms of decarbonization and looks at different strategies and pathways the industry can take to reach this goal.

    The Maritime Forecast to 2050 analyses three regulatory scenarios (continuing under current policies, regulations becoming gradually stricter, or very strict regulations introduced towards the end of the 2050 deadline) and how these could affect the transition to low and carbon neutral fuels. Improvements in general energy efficiency in on-board operations is also included as an essential part of reducing emissions.

    “One of the key components to meet the decarbonization challenge is fuel flexibility, as the fuels of today may not be the fuels of tomorrow,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV GL – Maritime. “This means having a picture of the entire fuel ecosystem is vital, as owners, operators, and the industry itself will have a much tougher time adapting to a low-carbon future if they are locked into a single choice.”

    Fuel flexibility and technologies to bridge changing fuel usage have been identified in the Forecast as essential strategies for both individual owners and the shipping industry to adapt to the energy transition and prepare for a low carbon future. In the deep-sea segment especially, dual-fuel solutions and alternative fuel “ready” solutions could smooth this transition, by laying the groundwork for a future retrofit. Combined with bridging technologies such as adaptable storage tanks, onboard systems and shore-side fuel infrastructure, this could give the industry more options as new fuels and technologies emerge.

    “Ships built today will have to compete with vessels coming onto the market in five, ten or 15 years’ time, and must consider future standards to remain competitive,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen. “Considering the uncertain future that lies ahead, failing to be future-proof in the newbuilding phase could lead to that asset being stranded in the not so distant future. In addition, CO2 emissions could become an important rate differentiator and we have already seen forward-looking charterers start down this road.”

    The Forecast shows that the uptake of low-carbon and carbon-neutral fuels is essential to meeting IMO GHG goals, with carbon-neutral fuels having to supply 30–40% of the global fleet’s total energy by 2050. Under different regulatory pathways, however, the model predicts that a variety of fuels could come to the fore. In all of the pathways, liquefied methane (from both fossil and non-fossil sources) provides a large part (40–80%) of the fuel mix at 2050. The Forecast also suggests that in the deep-sea sector, ammonia, biodiesel, liquid biogas and electrofuels are promising carbon neutral options, with battery, hybrid, and hydrogen solutions being potential options for the short-sea segment.

    The ongoing energy transition is starting to reshape the shipping industry, with much uncertainty on the way to 2050. DNV GL’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 hopes to offer the industry a vision of the changes ahead, offering guidance, highlighting trends, and providing valuable insights for maritime stakeholders. The Maritime Forecast to 2050 is part of a suite of Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) reports produced by DNV GL. The ETO has designed, expanded and refined a model of the world’s energy system encompassing demand and supply of energy globally, and the use and exchange of energy between and within ten world regions.

    ABOUT DNV GL
    Driven by our purpose of safeguarding life, property and the environment, DNV GL enables organizations to advance the safety and sustainability of their business. We provide classification, technical assurance, software and independent expert advisory services to the maritime, oil & gas and energy industries. We also provide certification services to customers across a wide range of industries. Operating in more than 100 countries, our professionals are dedicated to helping our customers make the world safer, smarter and greener.

    ABOUT DNV GL – MARITIME
     DNV GL is the world’s leading classification society and a recognized advisor for the maritime industry. We enhance safety, quality, energy efficiency and environmental performance of the global shipping industry – across all vessel types and offshore structures. We invest heavily in research and development to find solutions, together with the industry, that address strategic, operational or regulatory challenges.




2020 August 5

10:23 Baltic Dry Index as of Aug 4
10:18 Crude futures prices remain nearly flat
09:51 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Aug 05
09:07 EMSA, ECDC release guidance on resuming safe cruise operations in EU

2020 August 4

18:36 UK publishes Guidance on financial sanctions for Maritime Industry
18:21 Avance Gas sells 2003-built VLGC Avance
17:45 Klaveness Combination Carriers takes delivery of the fourth CLEANBU vessel
17:03 Tallink Grupp publishes July 2020 passenger and cargo statistics
16:58 ADNOC L&S and Wanhua Chemical Group form Strategic Shipping Joint Venture
16:33 Dredging of Utrenny LNG terminal’s basin kicked off
16:02 MHI-MME receives generator turbine and VOC firing auxiliary boiler orders for shuttle tankers
15:51 Flag, coastal and port authorities from eight countries come together to encourage development of maritime autonomous surface ships
15:43 Port of Ust-Luga MRC’ priority is taking care of employees
14:50 NOVATEK’s transshipment terminal in Port of Ust-Luga undergoes overhaul
14:02 Stena Line starts new service Liepaja - Karlskrona - Travemünde
13:26 MRA sets its sights on distance training
13:12 DEME repatriates 75 Philippine crew members from 12 vessels worldwide by charter flight from Brussels South to Manila
12:15 Evergreen joins the Ship Recycling Transparency Initiative
11:07 The port of Kiel starts the Cruise Season 2020
10:22 Bunker sales in Vladivostok in Jan-Jul plummet 30%
09:36 Baltic Dry Index as of Aug 3
09:30 Crude oil futures become cheaper
09:23 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Aug 04

2020 August 3

18:43 CMA CGM announces Peak Season Surcharge rates from North Europe to Indian Subcontinent
18:06 Total seven-month cargo traffic in Azov-Don basin in Jan-Jul down 6%
17:55 Inmarsat, Thetius and Shell Shipping and Maritime launch 'Crew Welfare Open Innovation Challenge'
17:25 The PV300 MS Mustai Karim leaves Krasnoye Sormovo Shipyard basin, sets sail for St. Petersburg
16:42 Spot market price for Russian M100 product ended week higher
16:06 Russian Gov’t approves regulation on crab boats construction incentives
15:32 Kalmar delivers four medium and heavy forklifts to support Yizheng Port in meeting safety and environmental requirements
15:26 RZD seven-month loaded freight down 4.4%
14:18 Ust-Luga Company wins the Ust-Luga Cup 2020
13:24 Borr Drilling Limited enters into a new contract and LOIs for three rigs
13:08 Long-awaited project of Kalmykia’s Lagan Port becomes part of the federal transport territorial planning
12:46 MSC Cruises and Palumbo Group form joint venture to operate the Palumbo Malta Shipyard
12:23 OHT wins contract for transport and installation of foundations at Dogger Bank
12:20 RZD to resume traffic via new rail bridge across the Kola as of October 1
11:46 Eagle Bulk reports the successful resolution of security incident onboard vessel
11:10 Buyan-class corvette Grayvoron departs for Novorossiysk sea trials base
09:48 Crude futures prices edge down
09:41 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Aug 03
09:16 Baltic Dry Index as of July 31

2020 August 2

16:03 Kirby Corporation announces 2Q, 2020 Results
15:31 Bollinger delivers second of three USCG FRCs to be home-ported in Guam
14:37 Dennis de Bruin appointed Managing Director of Commercial Shipping Europe
13:52 ABS supports global offshore wind development with updated guidance
12:35 USCG sets port condition Zulu for Ports of Miami and Key West
11:24 Tony Goldsmith announced as new head of marine at law firm Hill Dickinson as David Wareing steps down
10:52 Sea Machines partners with Maine Maritime Academy & MARAD to include intelligent vessel systems in curriculum

2020 August 1

14:21 U.S. appoints coordinator for the Arctic Region
13:14 CMA CGM announces GRR for Asia-West Africa trade
12:44 Polarcus awarded 3D project in Asia Pacific
11:31 Pacific Basin announces 2020 interim results
10:53 EBRD supports decarbonisation of energy sector in Cyprus

2020 July 31

18:26 Fincantieri BOD approves 1H 2020 results
18:07 Vostochnaya Verf to launch 03141-series first crab catcher in autumn 2020
17:36 Holland America Line changes name of newbuild to Iconic Rotterdam and designates it the new flagship
17:07 October Revolution Shipyard rolls out small seiner for a Kamchatka fishing company
17:06 Alfa Lift signs contract for transport and installation of foundations at Dogger Bank
16:44 Ship recycling in Bangladesh leaps forward with third phase of key project signed