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  • 2016 July 21 15:22

    The market is waiting for more clarity of bunker prices trend, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World fuel indexes are still hovering around levels at the close of last week. High levels of refined products are weighing on the market. While there are clear signs that the market continuing down the path towards supply/demand balance, there is still disagreement over how quickly that will arrive. Besides, the fuel market is still concerned that a further slowdown and any major fallout from Britain's recent decision to leave the EU would leave the world even more vulnerable to the risk of a global recession.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) demonstrated insignificant irregular changes with no firm trend in the period of July 14 – July 21:
     
    380 HSFO - up from 230.93 to 231,00 USD/MT   (+0,07)
    180 HSFO - down from 278.43 to 277.00 USD/MT (-1,43)
    MGO         - down from 469.57 to 466.50 USD/MT (-3,07)


    A coup’s attempt in Turkey on Jul.15 rose momentum concerns of possible disruptions in oil traffic through the Turkish Straits, including the Bosphorus and Dardanelles (one of the world’s major chokepoints for seaborne crude, with about 2.9 million barrels of oil passing through daily in 2013). However, the Straits were reopened on Jul.16 after closing for several hours and at present the situation is under government’s control: oil tankers are loading and unloading normally at Turkey’s ports and supplies are arriving in ships as well as in pipelines. The possible impact of failed coup on fuel prices is completely levelled.

    OPEC forecasts higher demand for its crude next year as the global surplus fades, while Saudi Arabia pumped near-record levels amid peak summer consumption. The Organization will need to produce about 33 million barrels a day next year, 142,000 a day more than June output (output in June increased by 264,100 barrels a day to 32.858 million a day). As per Cartel, global oil demand will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day next year to reach an average of 95.3 million a day, with almost all of the growth concentrated in emerging economies such as India and China.

    The EIA in turn increased its U.S. crude output forecast for 2017 to 8.2 million barrels a day from 8.19 million projected in June. Production in 2016 will be 8.61 million barrels a day, up from 8.6 million in last month’s report. As per Agency's evaluation, while the rebalancing of the oil market is progressing, brimming inventories remain a threat to the recent stability of fuel prices. Oil inventories in industrialized nations climbed to an all-time high of more than 3 billion barrels in May, while the volume of crude being stored on tankers at sea has reached the highest level since 2009.

    U.S. crude inventories fell 2.34 million barrels last week to 519.5 million barrels: the longest stretch of declines in the data series which was began gathering in 1982. Supplies remain at the highest seasonal level in at least a decade. Refineries bolstered operating rates by 0.9 percentage points to 93.2 percent of capacity, the highest since November (U.S. refiners typically boost utilization in June and July as they maximize gasoline output for the summer peak driving season). U.S. consumption of the fuel averaged 9.73 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended July 15, down 0.1 percent from July 8. Falling U.S. crude production and inventories have offered support for the market.

    The U.S. rig count increased for a third consecutive time for the week ending on July 15, rising to 357. That brings the total increase to 41 rigs since the end of May, a clear sign that more than a few companies feel that they can get back to work. However, the increase likely has more to do with $50 oil in June than it does with $45 oil in July.

    Chinese refiners have recently begun flooding the market with gasoline and diesel, pushing down product and oil prices. Production rose to a record high of 11 million barrels per day in June, an increase of 3.2 percent from June 2015. China’s domestic market can’t consume that much refined product, so the country has increased exports as well. Meantime, China’s economy continues to slow, although its second quarter GDP growth rate of 6.7 percent beat expectations. Still, it is at its lowest level in decades. That means weaker demand for oil and petroleum products. The IEA cut its oil demand forecast for China by 50,000 barrels per day to a 275,000 barrel-per-day increase for 2016, which may transform into downward driver in a medium-term outlook.

    Almost 400 North Sea oil workers will conduct a 24-hour strike on July 26, that may affect production at some of Royal Dutch Shell Plc fields in the North Sea.

    A venture between Arab Petroleum Investment Corp. and National Shipping Co. of Saudi Arabia is expected to create the world’s largest fleet of oil tankers to support the kingdom’s plan to boost crude exports. A $1.5 billion investment fund is to be formed to add 15 very large crude carriers (VLCC), to the shipper’s planned fleet of 46 such vessels.

    Libya's government of national unity is working to reopen four of the OPEC country’s biggest oil ports after securing a deal to unify the fractured nation's state energy company. Four ports (Es Sider, Zawiya, Ras Lanuf and Zueitina) accounting for about 860,000 barrels a day in crude-exporting capacity have been shut due to political turmoil and fighting. The country currently pumps about 350,000 barrels a day of crude and exports 220,000 to 250,000 barrels a day. It is expected that crude exports from Es Sider and Ras Lanuf will resume within a week. The shipments will be made under the authority of the unity government.

    All in all there is still a continuation of directionless fuel trade, and the market is looking for more clarity on where the fuel indexes are heading. We expect bunker prices will continue irregular fluctuations next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2021 December 3

09:18 Baltic Dry Index as of December 2

2021 December 2

18:36 NRP buys handysize drybulk carrier
18:06 2M Alliance’s Far East liner service „AE 7/Condor“ calls at Hamburg again
17:54 Icebreaker assistance season starts in Big Port St. Petersburg on December 7
17:36 Vitol is first customer to approve completely digital inspection of cargo tanks
17:15 BIMCO launches new contract for employment of security escort vessels
16:45 GTT will design the tanks of four new LNG carriers ordered by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering to operate in Arctic waters
16:25 MOL announces delivery of next-generation coal carrier 'EeneX' series
16:05 PSA & ONE launch environmentally friendly barge service at Jurong Island Terminal
15:42 “K” Line conducts trial use of marine biofuel for decarbonization on car carrier
15:38 Wärtsilä wins order to supply cargo handling system for second LNG bunker vessel being built by Fincantieri Bay Shipbuilding
15:23 Verifavia launches industry’s first real-time carbon intensity indicator dashboard
14:55 Two more LK-60 icebreakers needed for regular year-round navigation on Northern Sea Route
14:28 Equinor and SSE reach financial close on the third phase of the world's biggest offshore wind farm
14:04 Nuclear-powered icebreaker Sibir to commence operation in Kara Sea in early January 2022 – Vyacheslav Ruksha
13:42 MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 48, 2021
13:02 European shipowners call for further action in the Gulf of Guinea
12:40 Rolls-Royce to supply eight mtu engines for new Svitzer tugs in Brazil
12:01 Throughput of Azov port in 11M’2021 climbed by 1% YoY
12:00 NORDEN simplifies business unit structure
11:36 Norway’s Eksfin tops NOK 10bn in offshore wind financing as Dogger Bank C reaches financial close
11:34 Annual throughput of Severnaya Zvezda project on Taimyr peninsula to exceed 7 million tonnes from 2026
11:10 MABUX: Uncertainty on Global bunker market to continue on Dec 02
10:00 Digital Twin Conference 2022 to be held virtually on 11-12 May 2022
09:33 Crude oil prices are rising in expectation of OPEC+ meeting
09:19 Baltic Dry Index as of December 1

2021 December 1

19:15 PortNews to hold Ship Repair, Modernization and Components Conference on 20 September 2022 in Saint-Petersburg
18:31 DP World celebrates 2,000 members of the Digital Freight Alliance
18:07 CMA CGM and Shell perform first Bio-LNG bunkering operation in Rotterdam
17:42 8 new fuel-efficient ships to join the X-Press Feeders fleet
17:26 Danish Smyril Lines Cargo starts second service between Iceland, the Faroe Islands and Rotterdam
17:06 Port of Antwerp invests in digitalisation of radar infrastructure
16:47 Western Australia and Port of Rotterdam to collaborate on renewable hydrogen
16:05 IMO moves ahead on GHG emissions, Black Carbon and marine litter
15:50 Diana Shipping announces completion of OceanPal spin-off
15:41 RF Federation Council approves Federal Law on Ratification of Nairobi Convention
15:04 Yang Ming adds the latest of its 9th 11,000 TEU ship to the Trans-Pacific service
14:07 SEA-LNG backs Europe’s goal-based, technology-neutral regulation for cleaner shipping
13:50 Liepaja SEZ Board appointed Uldis Hmieļevskis, Deputy CEO, as Acting Manager
13:14 Rolls-Royce extends TBO intervals of mtu Series 4000 engines for commercial marine application
13:03 Oil shipments via CPC Marine Terminal in 11M’21 climbed by 0.7% YoY
12:56 Valenciaport tenders the drafting of the urban development project for areas 2 and 5 of the Special Plan for zone 1 south of the Port of València
12:06 Mostotrest conducted 2,177 operations on raising bridges in Saint-Petersburg over navigation season of 2021
11:45 MABUX: Bunker prices may continue to decline on Dec 1
10:49 Russian Railways' network loading climbed by 3.3% in 11M’2021
10:15 Maersk Customs Services USA highlights trends and opportunities for U.S. importers
09:51 Port of Kiel receives funding for digital test field
09:30 Crude oil prices start rising
09:16 Baltic Dry Index as of November 30

2021 November 30

18:35 ICS urges WTO Director General to prioritise maritime transport in multilateral trade negotiations
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16:34 Brittany Ferries takes delivery of Salamanca
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15:50 RF Navy's corvette Gremyashchy and two submarines of Varshavyanka project welcomed in Vladivostok
15:39 Abbey Heimensen appointed to VP of Marketing, MarineMax
15:34 The Port of Barcelona validates its Innovation Plan