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  • Sber CIB expects oil price to hit $100 a barrel by year-end
  • 2022 June 24 12:29

    Sber CIB expects oil price to hit $100 a barrel by year-end

    Sber CIB forecast: RUB65-70 / USD at the end of 2022

    Sber CIB does not agree with the forecasts of international brokers, who expect oil prices to surge to $150 per barrel. Sber CIB assumes that peak prices in the medium term will be reached this summer and will rise to $100 per barrel. Mikhail Sheibe, an analyst at Sberbank CIB, stated this at the Current State and Prospects for the Development of the Russian Market of Bunkering Services Conference.

    Answering a question from PortNews IAA, he announced Sberbank's currency forecast: RUB65-70 / USD at the end of 2022, which will be affected by the gradual recovery in import flows.

    “Russian production is strengthening in this current difficult times. A 30-percent discounts on Russian raw materials do wonders, allowing the country to maintain the level of production at 10.5-10.7 million barrels a day (from the level of 11 million barrels / day in February-March 2022 - Ed. note). We do not see a strong potential for a collapse in Russian production, just as we do not see a surge in demand, which will not stagnate for now. By the end of the year, we expect a price per barrel at $100. In the long term, prices will continue to be high. In 2023-2024, prices will not drop below $75-80 per barrel,” the expert was quoted as saying, repeating Sberbank’s forecast that by the end of the year RUB is expected to weaken towards 65-70 rubles per USD.

    According to him, the level of world reserves is a key factor in crude oil prices. Stocks in 2020-2021 were declining, with oil product market plunging into a state of deficit, he noted.

    “Both oil reserves and oil product stocks are at multi-year minimum levels. In 2013-2014, global demand was 90 million barrels per day, and now it is 100 million barrels per day. In recent months, a shortage of supply has been observed both in the oil market and in the markets of petroleum products due to a lack of refining capacity. The remaining free capacity of the refinery is located in China,” the Sber CIB specialist said.

    The key event of the second half of 2022 will be the visit of the US President to Saudi Arabia in July, which may determine the further actions of OPEC + and the planned deal in August.

2022 August 17

18:37 NFE and Apollo funds complete $2 bln LNG maritime joint venture
18:07 Steerprop to supply a complete propulsion package for first-of-its-kind Wind Installation Vessel
17:31 Svitzer brazil strengthens fleet with two newbuilds
17:23 SFL Corporation agrees to acquire four Suezmax tankers in combination with long term charters
17:12 TransContainer obtains 58.51% of SASCO stake
17:09 SCHOTTEL RudderPropellers to power world’s first hydrogen tug
16:47 Traffic along Rhine further hindered after vessel's engine failure - Reuters
16:14 Iranian company Khazar Sea Shipping Lines launches regular Caspian services between Iran and Russia
15:56 New E-Flexer ferry Stena Estelle takes up operation on 4 September
15:35 SCZONE signs MoU with Toyota Tsusho for infrastructure projects
14:55 Port of Hamburg's total throughput up 0.9 percent to 4.4 million TEU in H1 2022
14:35 Saudi Ports register 16% growth in cargo volumes in July 2022
14:25 Throughput of Chinese sea and river ports in 7M’2022 climbed by 0.1% YoY
13:13 RUSCON launched multimodal service between Japan and Kazakhstan
12:41 DFDS reports strong Q2 results and upgrads its outlook for the full year
12:11 Philippine Ports Authority net income up 9% in 1H 2022
11:42 New floating production unit delivered to ABS Class
11:26 NYK Tokyo Container Terminal starts operations of four transfer cranes
10:58 Global Ports Holding signs 30-year concession agreement for San Juan Cruise Port, Puerto Rico
10:09 Port of Long Beach releases the Deep Draft Navigation Integrated Feasibility Report
09:41 Crowley secures subcontract for hybrid-electric ferry
09:38 Delo Group acquired Sakhalin Shipping Company
09:17 Crude oil futures rise after a fall at the previous session
08:55 MABUX: Global bunker prices to continue firm downward trend on Aug 17

2022 August 16

18:11 Viktor Chernomyrdin icebreaker officially received the status of a passenger ship
17:55 Sailing ship Mir takes on board second shift of cadets this year
17:36 Wan Hai Lines acquired four 3,000 TEU containerships from CSBC Corporation
17:06 Gulf Navigation seals refinancing deal for 5 petrochemical tankers
16:42 ABP appoints the lead for Port Talbot Transformation Programme
16:23 Port of Singapore bunker sales in 7M’2022 fell by 8.6% YoY
16:04 More than 500 workers of the port of Liverpool to strike over an ‘inadequate’ pay offer - Unite
15:38 Port of Singapore throughput in 7M’2022 fell by 3.7% to 339.1 million tonnes
15:14 Reefer container freight rates stabilise but to outpace dry box pricing - Drewry
15:04 A.P. Moller - Maersk to adopt Viking’s HydroPen container firefighting system
14:49 Port of Helsinki throughput in January-July 2022 rose by 8.4% YoY
14:30 Suez Canal Authority and Maersk sign bilateral cooperation agreement
14:20 GoodFuels’ Asia-Pacific branch starts sustainable biofuel deliveries with NYK as first client
14:03 Paxocean, Hong Lam Marine and Bureau Veritas sign Mou to develop ammonia bunker vessel design
13:31 Korea’s automobile exports top US$5bn in July - BusinessKorea
13:02 Ship travel passenger numbers in Helsinki late summer up to 80% of pre-COVID levels
12:38 Equinor extends contracts for AHTS’s in Norway and Brazil
12:37 Vladivostok Sea Fishing Port included into China’s list of Russian fishery products suppliers
12:01 Maersk and Castlery sign multi-year global logistics and fulfilment agreement
11:48 IAA PortNews to hold discussion on fish ports development and fish delivery logistics at Seafood Expo Russia
11:30 Steerprop to supply a complete propulsion package for first-of-its- kind wind installation vessel
11:01 Kalmar and Tropical Shipping strengthen long-term relationship with new order for straddle carriers
10:20 Eneti announces sale of shareholding in Scorpio Tankers
10:09 Ocean Network Express connects to CargoWise to enable automatic digital rate transfer
09:37 Freeport of Riga increased its cargo turnover in 7M’22 by 13.1% YoY
09:18 MABUX: Downward trend returns back to Global bunker market on Aug 16
09:14 Crude oil futures continue decreasing after a fall due to reduction of demand in China
09:13 Furetank and Algoma establish joint venture to construct four climate friendly dual-fuel product tankers

2022 August 15

18:26 Fujian MSA and Fishing Authorities announce the 1st batch of hgh risk warning areas of collision between merchant ships and fishing boats
18:06 Port digitisation project at APM Terminals Liberia set to improve efficiency and ease of doing business
17:55 Vladivostok Sea Fishing Port to convert one of its berth into container storage yard
17:26 King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam breaks container throughput record in June
17:06 Keppel O&M wins US$2.9bn newbuild FPSO P-80 contract from Petrobras
16:41 Zero-carbon fuel readiness on the rise but challenges remain - LR
16:20 Container throughput of Hong Kong port (China) in 7M’2022 fell by 4.3% to 8.65 million TEU
16:01 De-Kastri port to handle four ships loaded with oversize cargo for Amur Gas Chemical Complex in 2022