MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 06, 2022
MABUX: We see some potential for Global Bunker Market to continue slight upward evolution next week
The Bunker Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
On a Week 06, the MABUX World Bunker Index showed a moderate upward evolution. The 380 HSFO index rose by 6.07 USD: from 567.85 USD/MT to 573.92 USD/MT. The VLSFO index went up more significantly: by 18.94 USD from 713.49 USD/MT to 732.43 USD/MT and is consistently above the mark of 700 USD. The MGO index added 8.21 USD (from 850.37 USD/MT to 858.58 USD/MT). In general, global bunker fuel prices continued to rise following the upward trend in the global oil market.
The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) weekly average - the difference in price between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - continued rising, this time by $9.36, coming close to $160.00 mark ($156.07 vs. $146.71 last week). At the same time, in Rotterdam, the average SS Spread widened even more: from $150.50 to $163.67 (plus $13.17 compared to last week). However, the highest growth of the a of SS Spread average was registered in Singapore: up $21.33 to $189.50 from $168.17 the week before. More information is available in the Price Differences section on mabux.com.
Natural gas markets in Europe have stayed rather volatile for the past months. Persistent lower pipeline supplies from Russia and low inventory levels keep the price floor high.
The price of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) on February 07 was 2217 USD/MT (down 156 USD compared to the previous week). The price of LNG still significantly exceeds the prices of traditional bunker fuels (MGO LS - 852 USD/MT as of 09.02).
On a Week 06, the correlation of MABUX MBP Index (market bunker prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX digital bunker benchmark) showed that 380 HSFO fuel was overpriced in two ports out of four selected: in Rotterdam - plus $14 and in Houston - plus $ 27. In Singapore and Fujairah, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index registered an underpricing of 380 HSFO by $9 and $5 respectively. There is the growth of the 380 HSFO’s underestimation margin registered at the port of Singapore by 8 points, for other ports the changes were insignificant.
VLSFO fuel grade, according to the MABUX MBP/DBP Index, was significantly overpriced in all selected ports: plus $38 in Rotterdam, plus $35 in Singapore, plus $42 in Fujairah and plus $12 in Houston. On average, overcharge ratio by port increased by $6-12, except for Houston, where the MABUX MBP/DBP Index was unchanged from last week.
As for MGO LS, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index registered an underestimation of this fuel grade in three of the four selected ports: Rotterdam - minus $ 20, Singapore - minus $ 30 and Fujairah - minus $ 29. Houston remains the only port where the MABUX MBP/DBP Index recorded overpricing - plus $24.
After a record year for orders in 2021, class society DNV GL added another 40 LNG-fuelled vessels to its AFI database last month, bringing the total tally of ships to just under 700. Growth in the LNG-fuelled vessel order book in January was driven by the containership sector, notably by MSC. Noting a ‘strong start’ to the new year, it was also noted that some of the orders added to the tally in January were actually placed last year. In 2021, 24o ships were ordered and with January’s numbers added there are now 261 LNG-fuelled vessels in operation and 433 on order.
We see some potential for Global Bunker Market to continue slight upward evolution next week.
By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX
