• 2019 February 14 16:03

    Expert expects uncertainty on global fuel market next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    Despite the crisis in Venezuela, which could shut in a lot more oil supply, global oil indexes have been mostly flat for two weeks. Market has weighed prospect of serous outages in Libya, Iran and Venezuela against the unfolding slowdown in the global economy.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), has demonstrated slight upward trend in the period of Feb.07 – Feb.14:
        
    380 HSFO - up from 398.43 to 408.21 USD/MT (+9.78)
    180 HSFO - up from 442.14 to 452.07 USD/MT (+9.93)
    MGO         - up from 617.14 to 620.64 USD/MT (+3.50)


    Fuel indexes were pressured after Russia said there were no substantial talks currently taking place to establish an alliance between Russia and OPEC while a charter outlining open-ended cooperation could be discussed when the two groups meet in April. It was also added that it was highly unlikely OPEC and other oil producers would set up a joint structure due to the additional red tape it would create, as well as the risk of U.S. sanctions against monopolies.  Besides, while Moscow had committed to production cuts with OPEC to boost crude prices, it is unlikely to get any deeper into the cartel's cuts to risk its own oil market share in the long run. Reuters reported on Feb.11 that the OPEC and its allies had drafted a document for setting up a new alliance but had carefully avoided any mention of sensitive issues such as oil prices.

    OPEC cut its forecast for 2019 world oil demand due to slowing economies and expectations of faster supply growth from rivals, underlining its challenge to prevent a surplus even as it starts new production cuts. Forecast for 2019 said demand for its crude would fall to 30.59 million barrels per day, 240,000 bpd less than predicted last month. OPEC also said its oil output fell by 797,000 bpd month on month to 30.806 million bpd in January. That amounts to 86 percent compliance with pledged cuts.

    The U.S. House Judiciary Committee passed a bill that would allow the U.S. Justice Department to sue members of OPEC for manipulating the oil market. The legislation has bipartisan support in the Congress, although it’s not clear where President Trump stands. The so-called NOPEC bill would remove sovereign immunity, exposing member countries to antitrust regulation. If the NOPEC legislation were to become law, it could theoretically make it much more difficult for OPEC to set production limits with the aim of achieving certain price targets. It could also put in jeopardy the formalization of the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance with Russia.

    The U.S. said Iran’s oil customers should not expect new U.S. waivers in May, urging buyers to stop importing Iranian oil. Some of them, including the four major Asian buyers of Iranian oil - China, India, Japan, and South Korea - have recently resumed buying limited volumes of Iranian crude oil, after a period of around a month and a half in which they had to clarify how much and under what conditions they would purchase oil from Iran. Earlier last week, Iran criticized Italy and Greece for not buying Iranian oil despite the fact that they had obtained waivers to do so.

    Another risk to supply comes from Venezuela after the implementation of U.S. sanctions against the OPEC member’s petroleum industry in late January. It is expected this move to knock out 300,000-500,000 bpd of exports. Sanctions also prohibit U.S. diluents from heading to Venezuela. Without diluents, Venezuela cannot process its heavy crude and would be forced to shut down output. However, Russia’s Rosneft is reportedly sending some oil products to Venezuela to keep production from collapsing. As a result, Venezuela’s oil production may not utterly collapse, which could keep Maduro in power further. However, U.S. sanctions could still lead to mass starvation, exploding humanitarian crisis.

    Forces loyal to Libya’s eastern leader Khalifa Haftar have taken control of the country’s biggest oil field (300,000 barrel-per-day production) and say the deposit is secure and ready to resume production. Libya holds Africa’s largest crude reserves, and the lack of clarity about troop movements and security in the south had cast doubt on the nation’s plan to boost output to 2.1 million barrels a day by the end of 2021. Libya’s internal turmoil led the OPEC in December to exempt it from participating in global production cuts.

    U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting in Beijing this week to try and reach a deal be-fore a March 1 deadline when higher American tariffs on Chinese imports take effect. It was reported President Donald Trump wants to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping very soon, an optimistic sign for investors who are becoming increasingly concerned there won’t be an agreement. Without a comprehensive deal on a range of trade issues, the Trump administration has threatened to increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent. An increase in tariffs, could tip the global economy into recession, forcing OPEC+ to extend its cuts, although it would leave much more room to take a harder line on Iran. Such an outcome on the trade issue would be hugely negative for oil and fuel prices.

    Lower growth forecasts from the European Union also heightened fears of a global economic slowdown. The European Commission sharply cut its forecasts for euro zone economic growth due to global trade tensions and an array of domestic challenges. Euro zone growth this year would slow to 1.3 percent from 1.9 percent in 2018, before rebounding in 2020 to 1.6 percent.

    It was reported an increase in the number of active oil and gas rigs in the United States last week. The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs rose by 4 rigs, with the number of active oil rigs increasing by 7 to reach 854 and the number of gas rigs decreasing by 3 to reach 195. The oil and gas rig count is now 74 up from this time last year, 63 of which is in oil rigs. The EIA’s estimates for US production for the week ending February 1 shows an increase at an average rate of 11.9 million bpd? - a record for the US - for the fourth week in a row.

    Outlook for the coming week

    We expect the uncertainty on global fuel market to continue next week followed by irregular changes of bunker prices.  

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2019 July 17

18:13 USCG responds to boat collision, assists 4 injured
17:55 LNG vessels to protect environment and increase container turnover at the Port of Riga
17:32 YAMAL LNG obtains certification for the new ISO 45001:2018 and confirms compliance with ISO 14001:2015
17:03 Qatargas delivers 3000th LNG cargo to Japan
16:48 Maslovoz-2 tanker left floating dock of Novorossiysk Ship Repair Yard
16:21 Krasnoye Sormovo delivers the Aleksandr Zuyev, dry cargo carrier of Project RSD59, to STLC
16:03 Safe Bulkers, Inc. announces installation and commissioning of the first scrubber on MV Martine
15:44 Germany accedes to ship recycling convention
15:27 South Africa accedes to compensation regime for hazardous and noxious cargoes
15:02 BHP to introduce low emissions LNG freight
14:02 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from ISC to North Europe and the Mediterranean
13:32 McDermott awarded FEED contract for Sohar LNG bunkering project in Oman
13:15 Pilbara Ports Authority delivers a total annual throughput of 697.2 million tonnes for the 2018/19 financial year
12:39 Exports of Russian oil products from Kambarka oil tank farm resumed by river route via RPK-Vysotsk-LUKOIL-II
12:01 Aker Solutions announces Second-Quarter and Half-Year results 2019
11:51 New edition of Rules for Classification and Construction of Ships Carrying Liquefied Gases in Bulk published by RS
11:44 Port of Oakland’s keystone project set to be delivered in 2020
11:26 NIBULON shipyard continues forming the hull of its 140-m NIBULON MAX floating crane
11:02 The President of the European Council visits the new Port of Baku
10:40 Gasum Group reports its financial results for Q2 2019
10:30 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, July 17
10:17 AS Tallinna Sadam reports its 2019 Q2 passenger and cargo flows
09:54 Bunker prices increase at the port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:35 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.25% to $64.51, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.03% to $57.64
09:19 Baltic Dry Index is up to 2,011 points

2019 July 16

18:06 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to North Africa
17:49 Marine Recruiting Agency to recruit personnel for Petrolesport
17:36 Hapag-Lloyd adds vessel to its North America Westcoast / Oceania Service
17:24 Turnover of DeloPorts’ terminals in 1H’19 decreased by 25% YoY to 3.2 mln tonnes
17:06 Odfjell SE sells its ownership share of terminal in Jiangyin, China
16:30 Keppel secures contract from Yinson for the modification of FPSO
16:01 More than 100,000 containers shipped via Intercity Barge at the Port of Rotterdam
15:56 Van Oord orders third trailing suction hopper dredger from Keppel
15:35 Rostransnadzor launches pilot project on remote monitoring of water transport companies’ compliance with mandatory requirements
15:10 Hapag-Lloyd announces rate restoration from East Asia to North Europe and Mediterranean
14:51 Bunker market sees mixed price movements at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
14:29 Baltic Transport Forum - development momentum for the region
14:10 Hapag-Lloyd launches new Africa service
13:46 Sea Port of Saint-Petersburg puts into operation new ecological equipment
13:25 Leading Port Planning & Development World Summit comes to Brussels, Belgium this October
13:01 CMA CGM announces GRR from Asia to West Africa
12:37 Naval Group launches first in Barracuda-class series of six nuclear submarines
12:10 Port of Oakland exports up 4.2 percent in June 2019
11:26 Nefteflot CJSC lays down third 4,800DWT barge of Project RDB12 ordered by STLC
11:01 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to North Europe
10:40 Scope of repair dredging performed by FSUE Rosmorport in 2019 to total about 10 million cbm
10:17 Investment dues collected in Russia’s seaports in 2019-20 to be used for four projects
10:14 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, July 16
10:14 Wärtsilä chosen for another environmentally sustainable hopper dredger from Damen Shipyards
09:54 Icebreaking and Support Fleet conference to be held in Saint-Petersburg on September 16 as part of NEVA-2019 exhibition’s zero day
09:35 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.06% to $66.52, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.05% to $59.55
09:18 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,928 points

2019 July 15

17:58 IAPH welcomes new Associate Member from Switzerland
17:33 NIBULON transported 3.5 million tonnes of cargoes by water transport
17:06 Hapag-Lloyd to introduce new Middle East-India-Africa Express Service
16:07 Desktop Just-In-Time trial yields positive results in cutting emissions
15:44 Prevention of marine pollution in South Asia discussed at regional workshop
15:15 Cargotec’s MacGregor receives clearance from the Chinese competition regulator for the acquisition of the marine and offshore businesses of TTS Group
14:56 Murmansk Sea Fishing Port handled 116,000 tonnes of cargo in 6M’2019, down 35.5% Y-o-Y
14:39 RS issues revised Rules for Classification and Construction of ships carrying liquefied gas