• 2018 July 12 18:03

    High volatility in global bunker market, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes prices have demonstrated rather volatile fluctuations during the week: fears of the escalating U.S.-Chinese trade war and increased production by Saudi Arabia and Russia pulled against concerns over supply disruptions from Venezuela and Libya as well as the looming sanctions on Iran. However, despite a significant draw in U.S. inventories by nearly 13 million barrels, fuel indexes fell on Jul.11 as Libya restored production and the U.S. softened its stance regarding Iranian oil sanctions. At the moment there are some signs that the market is recouping some of heavy losses from the previous session.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) resulted in insignificant irregular changes in the pe-riod of Jul.05 - Jul.12:
        
    380 HSFO - down from 447.71 to 445,36 USD/MT (-2.35)
    180 HSFO - up from 483.86 to 485,50 USD/MT     (+1.64)
    MGO        - down from 680.79 to 678.29 USD/MT (-2.50)

    Barclays raised its oil price forecasts for Brent Crude and WTI Crude for 2018 and 2019, and sees Brent Crude averaging $73 per barrel, and the U.S. benchmark averaging $65 a barrel next year, as it expects lower supply from Iran and Libya to further tighten the oil market. According to the bank, OPEC and Russia’s decision to reverse some of the production cuts would deplete the global spare capacity and push prices up, but OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia, as well as Russia, would be making efforts to cap a big upside in oil prices because much higher prices would destroy oil demand growth.

    U.S. tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods began on Jul.06, with retaliatory tariffs from China immediately implemented. China said the U.S. has now initiated the largest trade war in history. The escalation of the trade war is showing no signs of reaching a resolution and raising threats to global economic growth. Besides, a tariff of 25 percent on U.S. oil is under consideration in China. If that happens, Chinese demand would then shift to other suppliers driving oil/fuel prices further up (China is expected to import around 400,000 bpd from the U.S. in July).

    Meantime, Russia also imposed extra duties of 25-40 percent on some imports from the United States in response to Washington's tariff move. The extra duties will apply to imports of fiber optics, equipment for road construction, oil and gas industry, metal processing and mining. Be-fore it was declared that Russia will impose duties on goods which have Russian-made substitutes.

    Despite of started trade war Goldman Sachs maintained its bullish outlook on commodities, arguing in a research note that the trade war will not derail rising prices. The investment bank predicted a 10 percent return on commodities over the next 12 months.

    The Russian Finance Ministry has warned that the long-term equilibrium price level for crude oil is currently around US$50-60 a barrel, but actual prices are substantially higher than that and the current growth should be regarded as temporary. If oil prices continue to remain above long-term equilibrium levels, the price collapse will repeat again. The report, however, noted that the next price collapse could be avoided by boosting production in countries including the United States, Angola, Canada, and Brazil.

    Saudi Arabia ramped up production in June to 10.5 million barrels per day, or an increase of 500,000 bpd from a month earlier. Saudi Arabia’s all-time record high stands at about 10.7 mil-lion bpd and it looks like the country is planning to breach that level this month. It also seems that Saudis follow President Trump’s several demands published in twitter last week for more production.

    Libya saw its output fall to 700,000 bpd in June, down from 955,000 bpd in May. However, the standoff with General Khalid Haftar appeared to be on its way to some sort of resolution, with the militia handing the ports back over to the internationally-recognized NOC in Tripoli. As is always the case with Libya, the situation is fluid, and any return of production does not come with a guarantee that it will be sustained.

    The Trump administration is pushing countries to cut all imports of Iranian oil from November when the U.S. reimposes sanctions against Tehran. Last month, the State Department toughened its stance, insisting that imports of Iranian crude be reduced to zero, which naturally boosted international prices further. Meantime, last comments from U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo seemed to soften America’s position and opened up the possibility that the U.S. won’t take a zero tolerance policy towards countries importing oil from Iran, or that there could be some sort of phased implementation.

    In such a situation world powers and Iran appeared to make no concrete breakthrough on Jul.06 in talks to provide Tehran with an economic package to compensate for U.S. sanctions. Ministers from Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia met their Iranian counterpart in Vienna for the first time since U.S. President Donald Trump left a nuclear accord in May. Iranian officials have said that key for them is to ensure measures that guarantee oil exports do not halt, and that Tehran still has access to the SWIFT international bank payments messaging system or an alternative.

    It was reported an increase in the number of active oil rigs in the United States last week. The overall rig count increased by 5 rigs, with all of that increase coming from oil rigs (bringing the total count to 863), the number of gas rigs stayed the same. The steady upward climb that U.S. oil production has been on throughout 2018 appears to have leveled off at 10.9 million bpd, where it has remained for five weeks now.

    Syncrude Canada’s 350,000-bpd outage at its oil sands facility was expected to last through July, but restoration could take longer than expected. The facility could be brought back online in phases, and full output might not be achieved until September or October.

    Still, we think that increased production may not be enough, and prices will be supported by the continuous drop of Venezuela’s and Iranian loss of exports. We expect bunker prices may continue slight upward evolution next week.


     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 July 18

18:31 Naval Group posts H1 2018 performance results
18:00 BC Ferries announces sponsorship of the Nicholas Sonntag Marine Education Centre
17:36 DP World announces closing of Continental Warehousing Corporation (India) transaction
17:12 Marine Technics to participate in International Far East Maritime Show-2018
16:44 Oleg Bukin elected as Chairman of Tuapse Commercial Seaport BoD
16:23 Transocean and Chevron Australia ink 11-well contract
15:45 Stena Bulk positions itself in crude oil
15:19 Transocean announces 13-well contract for Transocean 712
14:57 AGCS issued Safety & Shipping Review 2018
14:43 Scandlines Helsingborg-Helsingör kicks off the holiday traffic season without delay
14:18 Intermarine UK promotes Portland Port to Government minister
14:00 Szczecin to become the capital of Baltic seaports in September
13:31 OHT to order ULSTEIN-designed heavy lift transport and installation vessel
12:59 Ports of Szczecin and Świnoujście announce 12-pct increase of cargo handling in HI’18
12:22 Dorian LPG confirms receipt of director nominations from BW LPG
11:50 Throughput of Ukraine’s seaports in HI’18 fell by 3.1% Y-o-Y to 53.8 million tonnes
11:25 TTS Colibri 3D compensated crane passes FAT
11:03 Overseas Shipholding Group places order for cemical tanker duo with Hyundai Mipo Dockyard
10:41 Yaroslavsky Shipbuilding Plant launches Svetlyak-class patrol boat Balaklava
10:32 Brent Crude futures price down 0.35% to $71.91, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.36% to $66.92
10:16 ICS encouraged by IMO progress on 2020 global sulphur cap implementation issues
09:59 Bunker prices continue going down at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:40 Throughput of Russian seaports in 6M’18 grew by 2.8% Y-o-Y to 394.8 million tonnes (detalization)
09:16 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,721 points

2018 July 17

18:24 North P&I Club and 24Vision ink partnership agreement
18:07 Lockheed Martin awarded Navy's contract worth more than $450 million in FMS funding for MMSC project
17:55 TransContainer announced its operating results for the second quarter and the first half of 2018
17:27 Equinor buys shares for use in the group's Share saving plan
17:11 Vigor Marine LLC gets Navy's contract for USNS Mercy mid-term availability
16:56 Okskaya Sudoverf puts into operation Belmax 4, fourth non-self-propelled barge of Project ROB20
16:34 Prosafe awarded important contract in Brazil
15:47 Orsted opts for Tekmar's CPS for Borssele 1 and 2 offshore wind farm projects
15:28 Port of Rotterdam places a bee colony in the port area
14:44 Baltic Ports Conference 2018 will focus on financing, economy and energy supply
14:23 Jan De Nul launches ultra-low emission vessel Diogo Cão in China
13:41 Severnaya Verf will lay down a longline factory vessel Gandvik-1 on July 20
13:16 Tidewater and GulfMark to combine to create global offshore leader
12:48 Containership MOL Truth earned 'Ship of the Year 2017'
12:19 15,000 TEU container ship “Afif” named in London Gateway
11:27 Huntington Ingalls begins post-delivery work on USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78)
11:17 Boskalis secures contract of total value of $65 million
10:53 Fuel oil prices are flat at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
10:29 ABS to class FSRU for Turkey’s oil and gas distributor
10:00 Brent Crude futures price up 0.28% to $72.04, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.01% to $67.06
09:14 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,695 points

2018 July 16

18:31 APL adds port calls to West Asia Express Service
18:16 Diana Shipping announces signing and drawdown of a US$75M Term Loan Facility with BNP Paribas
17:55 Director Kopczynska addresses WMU students and faculty on maritime Europe
17:40 Great Lakes announces receipt of $70 million San Jacinto award
17:33 Bollinger Shipyards commits USCG icebreaker program to Florida
17:31 New vehicle terminal announced at the Port of Southampton
17:18 Hapag-Lloyd hikes rates for East Asia-Arabian Gulf trade
17:08 ING Bank signed a USD 80 million syndicated loan agreement with NIBULON
16:43 Minimum training standards for fishers under review
16:25 USCG rescues 7 people from capsized boat near Horn Island
16:20 Port of Antwerp sets new records with best half year ever
15:56 Freeport of Riga showed good growth in the first half of 2018
15:32 Maersk Drilling secures two contract extensions in the North Sea
15:19 Container throughput of port Hong Kong (China) down 3.6% to 9.88 million TEUs in Jan-June’18
15:03 Van Oord will acquire MPI Offshore