• 2017 December 7 18:15

    MABUX Weekly Report: Rising oil production in the U.S. may pressure bunker prices

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) declined sharply in the period of Nov. 30 - Dec. 07:

    380 HSFO - down from 354.43 to 347.14 USD/MT (-7.29)
    180 HSFO - down from 396.93 to 388.50 USD/MT (-8.43)
    MGO        -down from 590.07 to 576.57 USD/MT (-13.50)

    OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by Russia agreed on Nov.30 to extend oil output cuts until the end of 2018. After this decision, the main drivers to influence bunker indexes are oil inventories and output levels in the U.S.

    OPEC also decided to cap the combined output of Nigeria and Libya at 2017 levels below 2.8 million bpd. Both countries have been exempt from cuts due to unrest and lower-than-normal production. There was also announced, that all parties would review the agreement at the next OPEC meeting in June. That seems to be a formality since the meetings are always a time and place at which OPEC assesses the situations on the oil market, but if the market tightens too much and prices rise significantly, Russia could push to end the agreement early. With oil prices rising above $60, Russia has more concerns that an extension for the whole of 2018 can prompt a rise in crude production in the United States, which is not participating in the deal. Another problem, that may arise, is to find more safety mechanism to finish the agreement not to let prices to fall. At the same time, Goldman Sachs boosted its oil price forecast following the OPEC meeting. It expects crude prices to gain 9 percent over the next year, but U.S. shale will still add new supply.   

    One of supporting factors today is that crude production from OPEC countries dropped again in November to a six-month low according to Bloomberg. Total production fell 80,000 barrels a day to 32.47 million a day last month. That was the lowest level since May, when output was 32.29 million. Much of the decline was the result of a 100,000-bpd decline from Angola, due to field maintenance.

    News from Nigeria also made a little support to the indexes. On November 29 residents of the Bayelsa region in Nigeria disrupted oil production at a field operated by Shell, shutting down two oil wells. Demonstrators demand power supply to their homes from the oil facility nearby.

    The pace of China’s oil imports growth is one of the most closely watched indicators on global fuel market. China is importing increasing volumes of oil not only because of demand growth, but also because its domestic oil production is declining as large ageing fields mature and as companies cut production from higher-cost fields amid the lower-for-longer oil prices. Therefore, Chinese dependence on crude oil imports is continuously rising and is set to further grow in the foreseeable future. As a result, China’s oil import reliance exceeded 65.6 percent in 2016 and is forecast to rise to 80 percent by 2030. By 2020, Chinese consumption of crude oil is expected at 12 million bpd.

    Moreover, Asian refiners are after U.S. crude oil as WTI continues to trade at a comfortable discount to Brent. Сrude oil shipments from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean to China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan jumped from about 500,000 bpd at the beginning of this year to over 1.2 million bpd. Data from Kpler showed earlier that in October, the amount of crude leaving U.S. ports averaged 1.6 million bpd, a lot of this bound for Asian refiners. Shipments of U.S. crude to Asia will likely continue to rise as production, especially in the shale patch, is increasing. This will eventually have a negative effect on prices.

    The Energy Information Administration reported a 5.6-million-barrel draw in crude oil inventories for the last week. Forecast expected a draw of 3.507 million barrels. But more notably, the EIA confirmed a large build of 6.8 million barrels in gasoline inventories. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.2 million barrels per day last week - a decrease of 127,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The EIA also said, refineries operated at 93.8 % of their operable capacity last week. Moreover, U.S. oil rig count rose again last week. The number of oil rigs operating in the US rose by 2 to 749 (versus 477 a year ago). Rising U.S. oil production may level OPEC's efforts in rebalancing the market and that prevents prices from rising much further.

    Meantime, researchers have discovered a flaw in the EIA’s official forecast, which might mean that the Agency is vastly overstating the potential growth of oil and gas production. In particular, the EIA has assumed technology has been behind much of the growth of shale, but the researchers said recent growth is more due to the fact that low prices have forced drillers to focus only on the most productive rigs. The conclusion is that total U.S. oil and natural gas production could undershoot EIA forecasts by 10 percent by 2020, a disparity that widens in subsequent years.

    The main risk at the market now is that the OPEC’s production cut extension, and as a result rising oil prices, may push U.S. output up. Meantime, both: OPEC and Russia don’t see global inventories falling back into the five-year average until the second half of 2018 - seasonally lower demand during winter months suggests that the destocking process will take a breather in the first quarter. In that case, real progress will not begin until probably the second quarter of 2018. At the same time, forecasts for the prices are quite optimistic. Oil market data from OPEC and International Energy Agency are due to issue next week and would define further trend.

    We expect bunker prices may demonstrate slight irregular changes next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 January 18

10:27 Brent Crude futures price up 0.14% to $69.48, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.34% to $64.19
10:04 FSUE Morsviazsputnik congratulates North-Western Shipping Company on its 95th anniversary!
09:42 Port of Klaipeda (Lithuania) handled 43.17 mln t of cargo in 2017, up 7.5% Y-o-Y
09:19 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,164 points

2018 January 17

18:00 Federal Agency for Water Resources supports Hydraulic Engineering Structures and Dredging Congress
17:03 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v Phaidra with Uniper
16:48 Sweden's Minister of Infrastructure visited World Maritime University
16:34 DNV GL launches certification framework and recommended practice for Carbon Capture and Storage
16:03 JAXPORT hires new Container Accounts Director
15:50 Lotos shipyard lays down paddle cruiser of Golden Ring design (photo)
15:42 Norwegian Central Bank excludes Evergreen Marine, Precious Shipping, Korea Line and Thorensen Thai Agencies from the Government Pension Fund Global
15:21 Three vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on Jan 16-17
15:04 DNV GL launches new JDP to test biodegradable lubricants
14:49 Beginning of icebreaker assistance period announced at port Primorsk (Leningrad Region)
14:33 “K” Line Group announces name change of two ship management subsidiaries
14:11 Throughput of port Helsinki (Finland) up 14.2% to 14.27 mln t in 2017 (table)
14:03 SBM Offshore completes Turritella handover and transaction
13:25 Throughput of port Kavkaz up 40% to 44.293 mln t in 2017
13:08 OOCL christens the last in latest series of ‘G-Class’ containerships
12:54 Yevgeny Zagorodny steps down as Vice-President of United Shipbuilding Corporation
12:26 Coal exports via Rosterminalugol terminal hit 1 mln t milestone this year (photo)
12:01 The Port of Helsinki takes the top spot among European passenger ports
11:22 De Boer/Dutch Dredging and Iskes Towage take delivery of ASD 2310 SD at Damen Shipyards Hardinxveld
10:43 Port of Gdansk throughput up 9% to 40.6 mln t in 2017
10:19 Brent Crude futures price down 0.1% to $69.08, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.11% to $63.66
10:00 NOVATEK’s hydrocarbons production in 2017 totaled 513.3 mln boe, down 6.2% Y-o-Y
09:37 Bunker prices are flat at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:15 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,221 points
09:08 Hamburg Süd honored twice for sustainability
08:14 COSCO's container ship to receive cyber enabled ship descriptive note ‘Cyber AL3 SECURE PERFORM (Energy Management System)’

2018 January 16

18:21 Kommer Damen opens Damen Area Support China
18:08 DNV GL approves latest Kongsberg Digital Engine Room Simulators
17:49 Russian Railways: Loading of Russia’s export cargo bound for domestic ports up 6.4% Y-o-Y to 293.4 mln t in 2017
17:26 State stevedores of Ukraine handled 34.73 mln t of cargo in 2017, down 9.6% Y-o-Y
17:00 Andrey Lavrishchev’s report at Hydraulic Engineering Structures and Dredging Congress will focus on promising port projects
16:35 Installation of Belgian topside for offshore substation marks milestone in further construction of Merkur Offshore Wind Farm
16:04 Maersk Line announces increase in FAK rates from Northern Europe to Middle East and ISC and from Mediterranean to Far East
15:52 Jotun Paints congratulates North-Western Shipping Company on its 95th anniversary!
15:34 DNV GL launches new JDP to test biodegradable lubricants
15:04 TTS Group ASA secures contract with Cosco (Dalian) Shipyard for TTS cranes
14:45 New Delhi will host 5th edition of Oil Spill India Conference on 5-6 July 2018
14:29 Norwegian Control Systems delivers automation and bridge control systems to five Fjord1 ferries
14:10 Port Mechel Temryuk hanlded 1.5 mln t of cargo in 2017, up 6% Y-o-Y (photo)
13:37 Russia's crude exports in 2017 rise 7%, year-on-year, to 256.718 million tonnes
13:13 Turnover of DeloPorts’ terminals in 2017 up 28% Y-o-Y to 7.7 mln t
12:49 NSR cargo traffic in 2017 included 9.73 mln t carried by seagoing vessels and 797,190 t carried by river ships
12:28 Singapore will host 22nd HR & Crew Management Conference on 16-17 May, 2018
11:56 Three vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on Jan 15-16
11:34 Bunker prices are flat at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
11:11 Coal exports from Russia rose 4% to 185.136 million tonnes in 2017
10:50 Oceanographic vessel Admiral Vladimirsky starts research in Indian Ocean
10:25 Brent Crude futures price down 0.4% to $69.98, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.31% to $64.5
10:07 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from ISC to North Europe and the Mediterranean
09:42 Cargo turnover at inland water ways of Azov-Don Basin down 4.9% to 9.796 mln t in 2017
09:19 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,264 points
09:07 Vroon’s VOS Stone mobilised with Ampelmann A400 gangway system
08:37 MMC First Process involved in the world’s first wellboat simulator
07:03 Crowley announces plans to build new 100,000-barrel Alaska Class ATB

2018 January 15

18:06 The largest hydraulic crane in the world at Vuosaari Harbour
17:29 Port of Tallinn offers Video Guides for car and truck drivers