• 2017 December 7 18:15

    MABUX Weekly Report: Rising oil production in the U.S. may pressure bunker prices

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) declined sharply in the period of Nov. 30 - Dec. 07:

    380 HSFO - down from 354.43 to 347.14 USD/MT (-7.29)
    180 HSFO - down from 396.93 to 388.50 USD/MT (-8.43)
    MGO        -down from 590.07 to 576.57 USD/MT (-13.50)

    OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by Russia agreed on Nov.30 to extend oil output cuts until the end of 2018. After this decision, the main drivers to influence bunker indexes are oil inventories and output levels in the U.S.

    OPEC also decided to cap the combined output of Nigeria and Libya at 2017 levels below 2.8 million bpd. Both countries have been exempt from cuts due to unrest and lower-than-normal production. There was also announced, that all parties would review the agreement at the next OPEC meeting in June. That seems to be a formality since the meetings are always a time and place at which OPEC assesses the situations on the oil market, but if the market tightens too much and prices rise significantly, Russia could push to end the agreement early. With oil prices rising above $60, Russia has more concerns that an extension for the whole of 2018 can prompt a rise in crude production in the United States, which is not participating in the deal. Another problem, that may arise, is to find more safety mechanism to finish the agreement not to let prices to fall. At the same time, Goldman Sachs boosted its oil price forecast following the OPEC meeting. It expects crude prices to gain 9 percent over the next year, but U.S. shale will still add new supply.   

    One of supporting factors today is that crude production from OPEC countries dropped again in November to a six-month low according to Bloomberg. Total production fell 80,000 barrels a day to 32.47 million a day last month. That was the lowest level since May, when output was 32.29 million. Much of the decline was the result of a 100,000-bpd decline from Angola, due to field maintenance.

    News from Nigeria also made a little support to the indexes. On November 29 residents of the Bayelsa region in Nigeria disrupted oil production at a field operated by Shell, shutting down two oil wells. Demonstrators demand power supply to their homes from the oil facility nearby.

    The pace of China’s oil imports growth is one of the most closely watched indicators on global fuel market. China is importing increasing volumes of oil not only because of demand growth, but also because its domestic oil production is declining as large ageing fields mature and as companies cut production from higher-cost fields amid the lower-for-longer oil prices. Therefore, Chinese dependence on crude oil imports is continuously rising and is set to further grow in the foreseeable future. As a result, China’s oil import reliance exceeded 65.6 percent in 2016 and is forecast to rise to 80 percent by 2030. By 2020, Chinese consumption of crude oil is expected at 12 million bpd.

    Moreover, Asian refiners are after U.S. crude oil as WTI continues to trade at a comfortable discount to Brent. Сrude oil shipments from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean to China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan jumped from about 500,000 bpd at the beginning of this year to over 1.2 million bpd. Data from Kpler showed earlier that in October, the amount of crude leaving U.S. ports averaged 1.6 million bpd, a lot of this bound for Asian refiners. Shipments of U.S. crude to Asia will likely continue to rise as production, especially in the shale patch, is increasing. This will eventually have a negative effect on prices.

    The Energy Information Administration reported a 5.6-million-barrel draw in crude oil inventories for the last week. Forecast expected a draw of 3.507 million barrels. But more notably, the EIA confirmed a large build of 6.8 million barrels in gasoline inventories. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.2 million barrels per day last week - a decrease of 127,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The EIA also said, refineries operated at 93.8 % of their operable capacity last week. Moreover, U.S. oil rig count rose again last week. The number of oil rigs operating in the US rose by 2 to 749 (versus 477 a year ago). Rising U.S. oil production may level OPEC's efforts in rebalancing the market and that prevents prices from rising much further.

    Meantime, researchers have discovered a flaw in the EIA’s official forecast, which might mean that the Agency is vastly overstating the potential growth of oil and gas production. In particular, the EIA has assumed technology has been behind much of the growth of shale, but the researchers said recent growth is more due to the fact that low prices have forced drillers to focus only on the most productive rigs. The conclusion is that total U.S. oil and natural gas production could undershoot EIA forecasts by 10 percent by 2020, a disparity that widens in subsequent years.

    The main risk at the market now is that the OPEC’s production cut extension, and as a result rising oil prices, may push U.S. output up. Meantime, both: OPEC and Russia don’t see global inventories falling back into the five-year average until the second half of 2018 - seasonally lower demand during winter months suggests that the destocking process will take a breather in the first quarter. In that case, real progress will not begin until probably the second quarter of 2018. At the same time, forecasts for the prices are quite optimistic. Oil market data from OPEC and International Energy Agency are due to issue next week and would define further trend.

    We expect bunker prices may demonstrate slight irregular changes next week.








    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)

2018 March 22

12:25 MAN Diesel & Turbo partners with Hyundai to build new test-engine facility in Ulsan
12:00 Workshop on prevention and control of shipping and port air emissions being developed as part of GloMEEP-IAPH partnership
11:36 19 icebreaker escort operations performed in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on March 21-22
11:21 Russian Trade and Economic Development Council sign MoU to further strengthen commercial ties with Abu Dhabi Ports
11:14 Bunker prices are flat at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
10:53 The Maritime Standard announces a special discount for the 2018 Awards
10:27 Brent Crude futures price up 0.01% to $69.48, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.09% to $65.23
10:05 Ukraine’s water transport carried 1,000 passengers in 2M’18, down 64.7%, Y-o-Y
09:41 Cargo transportation by Ukraine’s water transport grew by 41.2% to 0.3 million tonnes in 2M’18
09:19 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,117 points

2018 March 21

18:29 Wight Shipyard wins second order for fast ferry duo from Mexican ferry operator
18:16 Dorian LPG announces third Japanese financing
18:14 GasLog Partners LP announces acquisition of GasLog Gibraltar for $207 million and repayment of intercompany loan
18:04 ABP South Wales achieves new ISO 9001:2016 standard for bulk handling operations
17:42 Port of Gdansk to breathe new life into Dworzec Drzewny Quay
17:20 ABB wins contract to equip two next-generation shuttle tankers with future-proof solutions
17:13 Finnlines decides to exercise the options to lengthen two more ro-ro vessels
17:03 Throughput of Chinese ports up 4.7% to 1.45 billion tonnes in 2M’18
16:39 Pavel Bezmaternykh elected as Director of Eastern-Siberian Inland Navigation Company
16:18 Port of Gdansk overhauls its quays
16:00 Novikombank provides a $100 million loan to STLC
15:47 Huntington Ingalls names two vice presidents
15:21 Gulf Island Fabrication secures contracts for two specialized vessels
15:04 Seatrade Maritime Middle East 2018 to be held in Dubai on 29-31 October as part of UAE Maritime Week
14:42 LUKOIL’s profit in 2017 more than doubled YoY to RUB 418.8 bln
14:23 Wärtsilä and Crowley extend maintenance agreement for 11 articulated tug barges
13:56 IMO launches a video outlining how GMN initiative is uniting MTCCs into a global network
13:29 Ulstein built SOV Acta Auriga completes sea trials
13:11 Dubai will host MARACAD Maritime Innovation Awards on 3 October 2018
13:02 MARACAD 2018 will be held in Dubai on 2-3 October
12:30 17 icebreaker escort operations performed in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on March 20-21
12:09 Port of Quebec to cooperate with Port of Zeebrugge
11:47 Port of Immingham and partners hosted Driving Safety Forward forum
11:39 Vostochny Port JSC exported 5 million tonnes of coal YTD (photo)
10:50 Claimants and defendants in the case on allision of Delta Pioneer tanker with a pier at Primorsk port come to amicable agreement
10:31 Finnlines plans to lengthen two more Ro-Ro ships
10:15 Brent Crude futures price up 0.24% to $67.58, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.25% to $63.7
09:51 ABP's Port of Ayr took delivery of Liebherr crane
09:44 Bunker prices are going up at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:17 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,122 points
08:08 Scottish ports secure AEO status for Leith, Rosyth and Grangemouth
00:32 Ontario Government accepts Damen proposal for full ferry electrification

2018 March 20

18:20 Sirius Petroleum announces delivery of compact well head systems for Ororo-4 and Ororo-5
18:02 Leningrad Region Governor visits Vyborg Shipyard
17:56 PSA’s Bharat Mumbai Container Terminals enhances Nhava Sheva connectivity with first barge and train volumes
17:40 Van Oord posts results for 2017
17:25 Nevsky Shipyard designed a unique test stand
16:58 Multi-Link Terminals Ltd Oy orders Konecranes ship-to-shore crane for its Helsinki terminal
16:40 SMM 2018: green shipping makes headway
16:01 Transit shipments of containers on Russian Railways' network increased by 40% in January-February 2018
15:36 Rotterdam, the Netherlands will host 21st Ballast Water Management Conference on 7-8 November, 2018
15:13 NWSA container volumes grow 6 percent in February 2018
14:50 IMO Secretary-General Kitack Lim spoke at International Shipping Summit in Istanbul
14:24 More than half of spaces at icebreaker Arktika being built by Baltiysky Zavod are ready for outfitting (photo)
14:12 Maersk Line increases FAK rates from Far East to North Europe
13:35 Dredging works to be performed at seaport of Vladivostok
13:13 BP charters Safe Caledonia for West of Shetland
12:47 Traffic of passenger cars and buses through Crimea Bridge to be launched in May 2018 – RF Transport Ministry (photo)
12:01 Wan Hai Lines to launch new China to Vietnam service
11:51 40 icebreaker escort operations performed in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on March 19-20