• 2017 December 7 18:15

    MABUX Weekly Report: Rising oil production in the U.S. may pressure bunker prices

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) declined sharply in the period of Nov. 30 - Dec. 07:

    380 HSFO - down from 354.43 to 347.14 USD/MT (-7.29)
    180 HSFO - down from 396.93 to 388.50 USD/MT (-8.43)
    MGO        -down from 590.07 to 576.57 USD/MT (-13.50)

    OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by Russia agreed on Nov.30 to extend oil output cuts until the end of 2018. After this decision, the main drivers to influence bunker indexes are oil inventories and output levels in the U.S.

    OPEC also decided to cap the combined output of Nigeria and Libya at 2017 levels below 2.8 million bpd. Both countries have been exempt from cuts due to unrest and lower-than-normal production. There was also announced, that all parties would review the agreement at the next OPEC meeting in June. That seems to be a formality since the meetings are always a time and place at which OPEC assesses the situations on the oil market, but if the market tightens too much and prices rise significantly, Russia could push to end the agreement early. With oil prices rising above $60, Russia has more concerns that an extension for the whole of 2018 can prompt a rise in crude production in the United States, which is not participating in the deal. Another problem, that may arise, is to find more safety mechanism to finish the agreement not to let prices to fall. At the same time, Goldman Sachs boosted its oil price forecast following the OPEC meeting. It expects crude prices to gain 9 percent over the next year, but U.S. shale will still add new supply.   

    One of supporting factors today is that crude production from OPEC countries dropped again in November to a six-month low according to Bloomberg. Total production fell 80,000 barrels a day to 32.47 million a day last month. That was the lowest level since May, when output was 32.29 million. Much of the decline was the result of a 100,000-bpd decline from Angola, due to field maintenance.

    News from Nigeria also made a little support to the indexes. On November 29 residents of the Bayelsa region in Nigeria disrupted oil production at a field operated by Shell, shutting down two oil wells. Demonstrators demand power supply to their homes from the oil facility nearby.

    The pace of China’s oil imports growth is one of the most closely watched indicators on global fuel market. China is importing increasing volumes of oil not only because of demand growth, but also because its domestic oil production is declining as large ageing fields mature and as companies cut production from higher-cost fields amid the lower-for-longer oil prices. Therefore, Chinese dependence on crude oil imports is continuously rising and is set to further grow in the foreseeable future. As a result, China’s oil import reliance exceeded 65.6 percent in 2016 and is forecast to rise to 80 percent by 2030. By 2020, Chinese consumption of crude oil is expected at 12 million bpd.

    Moreover, Asian refiners are after U.S. crude oil as WTI continues to trade at a comfortable discount to Brent. Сrude oil shipments from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean to China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan jumped from about 500,000 bpd at the beginning of this year to over 1.2 million bpd. Data from Kpler showed earlier that in October, the amount of crude leaving U.S. ports averaged 1.6 million bpd, a lot of this bound for Asian refiners. Shipments of U.S. crude to Asia will likely continue to rise as production, especially in the shale patch, is increasing. This will eventually have a negative effect on prices.

    The Energy Information Administration reported a 5.6-million-barrel draw in crude oil inventories for the last week. Forecast expected a draw of 3.507 million barrels. But more notably, the EIA confirmed a large build of 6.8 million barrels in gasoline inventories. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.2 million barrels per day last week - a decrease of 127,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The EIA also said, refineries operated at 93.8 % of their operable capacity last week. Moreover, U.S. oil rig count rose again last week. The number of oil rigs operating in the US rose by 2 to 749 (versus 477 a year ago). Rising U.S. oil production may level OPEC's efforts in rebalancing the market and that prevents prices from rising much further.

    Meantime, researchers have discovered a flaw in the EIA’s official forecast, which might mean that the Agency is vastly overstating the potential growth of oil and gas production. In particular, the EIA has assumed technology has been behind much of the growth of shale, but the researchers said recent growth is more due to the fact that low prices have forced drillers to focus only on the most productive rigs. The conclusion is that total U.S. oil and natural gas production could undershoot EIA forecasts by 10 percent by 2020, a disparity that widens in subsequent years.

    The main risk at the market now is that the OPEC’s production cut extension, and as a result rising oil prices, may push U.S. output up. Meantime, both: OPEC and Russia don’t see global inventories falling back into the five-year average until the second half of 2018 - seasonally lower demand during winter months suggests that the destocking process will take a breather in the first quarter. In that case, real progress will not begin until probably the second quarter of 2018. At the same time, forecasts for the prices are quite optimistic. Oil market data from OPEC and International Energy Agency are due to issue next week and would define further trend.

    We expect bunker prices may demonstrate slight irregular changes next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 September 25

18:37 Colombo Dockyard achieves recognition at the Presidential Export Award
18:10 Tersan Shipyard (Turkey) lays down lead crab catching and processing ship of Project ST184 for Arktikservis
17:56 CMA CGM announces GRR from Asia to South Africa
17:36 The Ocean Cleanup chooses Iridium as provider of satellite communications services
17:20 First RITM-200 reactor intended for nuclear-powered icebreaker Ural left for Baltiysky Zavod shipyard
17:06 ABP opens up Humber International Enterprise Park development plans to public
16:57 Shippers suspect sulphur stitch-up
16:29 Kotug Smit Towage performs naming ceremony for tug Southampton
16:20 Portugal joins WISTA International
15:38 Volga Shipping Company named the best in terms of transport security
15:12 Mr. Birkir Hólm Guðnason hired as CEO of Samskip Iceland
14:11 CMA CGM to review sales policy regarding Low Sulphur IMO 2020 Regulation
13:49 NIBULON successfully completed its passenger transportation season
13:11 North Carolina Ports’ terminals resume full commercial operations following hurricane Florence
12:50 Fuel oil prices are going up in the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
12:31 Havila Kystruten selects Havyard to deliver the ship design and extensive equipment package for four new vessels
12:14 European ports welcome Parliament’s explicit support to remove the tax barriers for shore-side electricity for ships
12:01 Long Beach Commission OKs budget for expanded rail yard
11:43 DHT Holdings announces $50 mln scrubber financing
11:32 Nevsky Shipyard takes part in «Marintec Offshore Russia» exhibition
11:00 GTT receives a new order from Samsung Heavy Industries for the tank design of two new LNG carriers
10:55 NYK announces delivery of new wood-chip carrier for Hokuetsu Corporation
10:24 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,434 points
10:01 Brent Crude futures price up 0.2% to $80.69, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.12% to $72.17
09:38 Yaroslavsky Shipyard lays down oil recovery vessel of Project Р2114 for Transneft
09:15 Audit summary report to be considered by Sub-Committee on Implementation of IMO Instruments

2018 September 24

18:36 DNV GL unveils the complexity of ocean governance in report for the UN Global Compact
18:03 Klaveness Combination Carriers AS announces completion of USD 45.0 million private placement
17:52 Port of Southampton recognised in top 20 under 40 cruise award
17:36 CMA CGM announces GRR from India West Coast to Mozambique
17:03 Metropolitan Plan for Great Newcastle endorses Port of Newcastle vision
16:50 Ust-Luga Container Terminal handles cargo for Nord Stream 2
16:47 Wightlink names its new flagship
16:45 Bomin exits the bunker markets in Singapore and Antwerp
16:43 Hamburg and St. Petersburg strengthen cooperation at the Port Evening
16:33 DNV GL ends operations in Iran by 4th November
16:19 Vladimir Panchenko dredger built by Shipbuilding - Ship Repair Corporation features local content of 90%
16:03 IMO sadness over Nyerere casualty
15:47 Moby Dik terminal starts handling vessels of Sea Connect line
15:33 Wärtsilä inaugurates upgraded EGC test facilities in Norway
15:20 ESPO wants more ambition on harmonisation of data, while maintaining flexibility in reporting systems
15:03 Vinalines to build 2 terminals at $299 mln in Lach Huyen Port
14:46 Port of Antwerp presents smart port of the future at Supernova
14:33 DFDS Seaways raises capacity on route Zeebrugge - Norway
14:18 Feasibility study of concession of state stevedoring companies «Olvia» and «Kherson» presented for acquaintance to potential investors
14:03 Norway’s largest cruise port of Bergen to build Europe’s largest onshore power supply facility
13:59 Sea Port of Saint-Petersburg named one of the best transport infrastructure facilities
13:34 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO up to RUB 21,529 in RF spot market
13:11 Okskaya Sudoverf lays down fourth dry cargo carrier of Project RSD32M
12:45 NOVATEK shipped first LNG cargo to Brazil
12:23 Finalists for the Seatrade Maritime Awards in Dubai announced
12:00 Nor-Shipping 2019 takes place in Oslo and Lillestrøm, Norway, from 04 to 07 June 2019
11:16 Longline factory ship Marlin laid down by Severnaya Verf shipyard to feature 40% of local content
10:54 Damen performs float-out of Australian icebreaker
10:52 NOVATEK increases number of Management Board members
10:28 Smart shipping to be under the spotlight at Seatrade Maritime Middle East
10:05 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,413 points
09:43 Brent Crude futures price up 1.25% to $79.22, Light Sweet Crude – up 1.2% to $71.63
09:21 Freeport of Riga’s project on construction of Krievu Island Terminal enters its final phase
09:00 Vice Premier Han Zheng inspected COSCO-PSA terminal in Singapore