2021 May 20 15:18
The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
During Week 20, MABUX World Bunker Index has turned into firm downward movement. 380 HSFO index decreased by 16.48 USD: from 431.90 USD/MT to 415.42 USD/MT, VLSFO Index declined by 14.56 USD: from 529.61 USD/MT to 515.05 USD/MT, while MGO Index lost 6.30 USD (from 616.29 USD/MT to 609.99 USD/MT).
The MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index, calculated as the average price of LNG as a marine fuel in the ARA region, has increased during the last 3 weeks from 516.80 USD/MT to 607.67 USD/MT (+90.87 USD). During the same period, MGO LS prices have added only 18 USD/MT. Since May 6, the price of LNG as a marine fuel in Rotterdam has consistently exceeded the price of MGO LS by average 45 USD. LNG bunker price indices, TTF, NBP and Henry Hub gas futures, LNG bunker market news and more are available in the new LNG Bunkering section at www.mabux.com.
The average Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the difference in price between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - increased to 99.99 USD (versus 97.95 USD last week, plus 2.04 USD), i.e., almost has reached the psychological level of 100 USD. SS Spread in Rotterdam declined slightly during the week (minus 1.00 USD), but its average increased by 3.33 USD to 108.33 USD (105.00 USD last week). In Singapore, the SS Spread rose by 3.00 USD, but its average value remained practically unchanged: 112.50 USD (plus 0.67 USD). SS Spread in both ports stays well above 100 USD. More information is available in a new section under the Differentials section of www.mabux.com.
Correlation of MABUX MBP Index (Market Bunker Prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX Digital Benchmark) in the four global largest hubs showed this week that 380 HSFO fuel remained undercharged in all four selected ports ranging from minus 5 USD in Houston (versus minus 3 USD last week) and minus 24 USD in Fujairah (versus minus 14 USD) to minus 37 USD in Rotterdam (versus minus 30 USD) and minus 48 USD in Singapore (versus minus 40 USD). The size of underpricing in all four selected ports increased slightly.
The underpricing margins of VLSFO, according to the MABUX DBP Index, also slightly increased: in Rotterdam, the registered undercharge was minus 21 USD (vs minus 18 USD last week), in Fujairah - minus 44 USD (vs minus 37 USD), in Singapore - minus 45 USD (vs minus 36 USD). In Houston, on the contrary, the margin of VLSFO overcharge rose to plus 10 USD (versus plus 6 USD last week).
MABUX DBP Index also recorded an undercharge of MGO LS fuel at all selected ports ranging from minus 24 USD in Houston (versus minus 25 USD last week) to minus 43 USD in Rotterdam (vs minus 40 USD), minus 50 USD in Singapore (unchanged) and minus 58 USD in Fujairah (vs minus 52 USD). In general, there are no major changes on the global bunker market so far.
A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) says there is a ‘viable pathway’ to achieving a global energy sector with net-zero emissions by 2050 but it is a narrow one, requiring ‘an unprecedented transformation of how energy is produced, transported and used globally’. As per Report, climate pledges made by governments to date, even if fully achieved, would fall ‘well short’ of what is needed to cut CO2 emissions to net zero by 2050 and offer ‘an even chance’ of keeping the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C. It also paints an energy landscape that will look very different by 2050. Global energy demand will be around 8% smaller than today, but it will serve an economy more than twice as large and a population with 2 billion more people.
The report also envisages ammonia, hydrogen and bioenergy demand rising from 0% of the marine energy market in 2020 to 8%, 2% and 7% respectively by 2030, and 46%, 17% and 21% respectively by 2050. Fossil oil takes up just over 15% of marine demand by 2050 in the lEA's scenario, while fossil gas's share is consistently less than 5% over the next three decades and negligible by 2050.