• 2024 May 30 12:08

    MABUX: Bunker Outlook, Week 22, 2024

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    Over Week 22, the MABUX global bunker indices still did not have a clear trend and changed sideways. The 380 HSFO index rose by 7.38 USD: from 543.89 USD/MT last week to 551.27 USD/MT. The VLSFO index, on the contrary, decreased by 3.63 USD (649.26 USD/MT versus 652.89 USD/MT last week). The MGO index lost a symbolic 0.35 USD (from 839.56 USD/MT last week to 839.21 USD/MT). At the time of writing, a moderate upward trend continued in the global bunker market.

    The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - saw a consistent decline: minus $11.01 ($110.14 versus $112.56 last week), dipping below the $100.00 SS breakeven point for the first time since October 10, 2023. The weekly average also fell by $9.21. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread decreased by $11.00 (from $90.00 last week to 79.00), staying well below the $100.00 mark. The port's weekly average dropped by $3.33. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential showed the most significant reduction: minus $20.00 ($64.00 vs. $84.00 last week), with the weekly average decreasing by $23.00. Currently, the SS Spread is demonstrating a sustainable downward trend. Stable SS Spreads below the $100.00 mark adversely affect scrubber profitability and extend their payback period, while increasing demand for conventional and alternative bunker fuels. We anticipate the SS Spread to continue narrowing in the short term. More information is available in the “Differentials” section of www.mabux.com.

    European benchmark natural gas prices rose last week due to growing supply concerns and forecasts of lower wind power generation. Unplanned outages in Norway, coupled with planned maintenance at some gas assets, higher natural gas demand in Asia, and the end of the current gas transit deal for Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine at the end of 2024, could further constrain gas supply for Europe and drive prices higher. During week 22, the European gas benchmark TTF continued its moderate growth, adding 0.530 EUR/MWh (33.534 EUR/MWh versus 33.004 EUR/MWh last week), while showing a decline over the last three trading days.

    The price of LNG as bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) continued to rise, reaching 768 USD/MT on May 27 (plus 40 USD compared to last week). At the same time, the price difference between LNG and conventional fuel on May 27, on the contrary, decreased, amounting to 40 USD in favor of LNG (versus 89 USD a week earlier): MGO LS was quoted at 808 USD/MT that day in the port of Sines. More information is available in the LNG Bunkering section of www.mabux.com.

    In Week 22, the MDI index (the correlation ratio of market bunker prices (MABUX MBP Index) vs. MABUX digital bunker benchmark (MABUX DBP Index)) observed the following trends across the major world hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah and Houston:

    In the 380 HSFO segment, all selected ports remained undervalued. Weekly averages rose 6 points in Rotterdam, 15 points in Singapore, 18 points in Fujairah, and 6 points in Houston.

    In the VLSFO segment, according to the MDI, all ports were undervalued, with average weekly levels showing an increase of 4 points in Singapore and 3 points in Houston, and a decrease of 2 points in Rotterdam and 1 point in Fujairah. The MDI index in Fujairah remained close to 100 percent correlation between the market price and the MABUX digital benchmark.

    In the MGO LS segment, Houston remained the only overvalued port, with its weekly average rising 7 points and the MDI index consistently above the 100 percent correlation mark between market price and the MABUX digital benchmark. All other ports were undervalued. Average weekly levels showed a further 3-point decline in Rotterdam and 1-point in Singapore, but a 13-point increase in Fujairah. The MDI index in Singapore stayed above $100.

    By the end of the week, the balance of overvalued/undervalued ports, as well as the trend towards undervaluation of bunker fuel, did not undergo significant changes across all market segments.

    For more details on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark, visit the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on www.mabux.com.

    According to DNV, the gap between LNG-fueled tonnage and the necessary infrastructure for fueling them is widening. Despite this, industry stakeholders are still waiting for market assurances before investing in LNG bunker vessels. There is a clear shortage of these vessels, and the class society expects this shortage to become apparent in roughly 12 months. DNV estimates that 2.3 million tonnes of LNG were bunkered in 2023, which accounts for 1% of the global marine fuels market. This market is growing rapidly, with LNG consumption expected to increase by 400%, reaching 11 million tonnes by 2026.

    We expect that the downward trend in the global bunker market has reached its limit, and next week the growth of bunker prices will become sustainable.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX




2024 June 25

18:00 MOL announces consolidation of equity-method affiliate company Gearbulk
17:25 Baltic Workboats selects Genevos as hydrogen fuel cell supplier
16:54 VIKING ambulance boat order adds to Greek island health care performance
15:56 Liquipar Operações Portuárias to invest $106m in the Port of Paranaguá
15:33 GTT receives an order from Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding for the tank design of ten new very large LNG carriers
14:53 Hamburg Commercial Bank acquires NIBC’s shipping business
14:22 HD Hyundai gets global ship cyber security certifications
13:52 EemsEnergyTerminal may be kept at Eemshaven for longer for security of energy supply and the energy transition
13:22 TMC to supply ALS compressors to NYK’s LNG carriers
12:40 Danske Commodities and Solar Park Kasso sign agreement to optimise world’s largest commercial Power-to-X facility
12:03 Australian Government orders an additional two Guardian-class Patrol Boats for Pacific Maritime Security Program
11:44 Port Houston container volumes up 21 percent to 364,866 TEUs in May
11:03 Kongsberg Maritime expands its retractable thruster line
10:30 China-made icebreaker research vessel delivered in Guangzhou
10:10 Finnlines upgrades route between Sweden and Germany
09:46 Blue World completes successful testing of 200 kW maritime fuel cell system to run on green methanol

2024 June 24

18:06 World’s first methanol dual-fuel retrofit container ship delivered
17:10 New eco-friendly bulk carrier delivered to GOGL
16:30 HD KSOE close to intaking 4.8 trillion won worth order from CMA CGM
16:03 MAN Cryo supplies fuel system for world’s first hydrogen-powered superyacht
15:42 Global offshore wind capacity reaches 75 GW
15:26 Yemen's Houthis claim attack on four ships at Israel's Haifa port
14:56 Wison New Energies signs the EPCIC contract with Genting Group for the delivery of a FLNG facility
13:56 India's GRSE signs an agreement with Carsten Rehder Schiffsmakler and Reederei for the construction and delivery of four multi-purpose vessels
12:58 EU adopts 14th package of sanctions against Russia
12:33 Port of Valencia container volumes up 12.05% to 516,674 TEUs in May 2024
11:58 MSC Cruises carbon intensity cut by 6.5% in 2023
11:32 Western Baltija Shipbuilding starts construction of the first hydrogen-electric ship for Klaipeda State Seaport Authority
10:45 QatarEnergy enters 10-year naphtha supply agreement with Japan’s ENEOS Corporation
10:25 TotalEnergies wins further maritime lease in the North Sea to develop 1.5 GW of offshore wind

2024 June 23

15:42 Auramarine inks representative agreement with Hagedorn Products & Systems GmbH and Hagedorn Service & ENgineering GmbH, Germany
13:06 Drewry: Freight rates from China will continue to rise next week
11:34 Enova finance granted to new ammonia-fuelled gas carrier operation
09:37 MSC signs shore power deal in Hamburg

2024 June 22

15:47 MSC launches new Dahlia service for Asia to Mexico trade
13:29 BV hosts its 25th Hellenic and Black Sea Committee
12:24 HD KSOE develops scrubber technology for ammonia-fueled ships
10:04 Lloyd’s Register grants AiP to HD KSOE for novel ammonia fuel supply system

2024 June 21

18:09 HGK Shipping names future-fuel-ready dry goods inland waterway vessel
17:53 Chinese shipyards’ plans for next-generation ships
17:41 Emanuele Grimaldi re-elected as Chairman of the International Chamber of Shipping
16:40 MAN Energy Solutions rejoins SEA-LNG
16:20 India to create $9bn mega port near Mumbai
15:58 Hanwha acquires U.S. Philly Shipyard for $100 million
15:25 DP World completes $400m Сallao Port expansion
14:10 Var Energi, OMV Norge and Lime Petroleum awarded CO2 storage licence in North Sea
13:44 Creos Luxembourg, Fluxys and GRTgaz announce the inclusion of project HY4Link in the European hydrogen network development plan
12:43 Fincantieri and Viking sign contracts for two cruise ships
12:25 First of two new-generation emergency response vessels delivered to Hong Kong Fire Service
12:16 MPA clarifies on liability claims for pollution damage
11:59 A fleet of four Union Maritime tankers to be fitted with Norsepower Rotor Sails
11:38 PortNews Media Group celebrates its 20-year anniversary
11:25 TotalEnergies launches the Ubeta gas development to supply Nigeria LNG liquefaction plant
11:13 SMST secures contract from Cochin Shipyard for mission equipment for North Star SOV
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10:17 Equinor secures exploration permit for CO2 storage in Denmark
09:56 CMA CGM to reshuffle EURONAF & TMX 2, linking Turkey, Spain, France, Malta, Western Italy, Sicily, Algeria
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2024 June 20

18:06 Mammoet begins assembly of world’s biggest land-based crane
17:41 KEZAD Group signs lease agreement with Astha Biotech for AED 44m Microalgae Plant in Abu Dhabi
17:28 DNV's SRC software service launches in Europe
16:19 Equinor awarded two new CO2 storage licenses in the North Sea
16:15 Saudi Global Ports expands capacity with new QC and RTG cranes
15:31 Naftemporiki: Tanker prices on secondary market show signs of stabilization
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14:29 A consortium of DEME and Hellenic Cables secured large contract for Princess Elisabeth Island
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13:18 Norway and Singapore partner to enhance green maritime collaboration
13:05 Jan De Nul wins contract to supply, install and test three 220 kV AC cables
12:31 MPA reports considerable progress in oil spill recovery efforts