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  • MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 21, 2023.
  • 2023 May 26 10:25

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 21, 2023.

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    Over the Week 21, the global MABUX bunker indices turned into an upward trend. The 380 HSFO index experienced a rise of 9.27 USD, climbing from 477.06 USD/MT in the previous week to 486.33 USD/MT. However, it still remained below the 500 USD threshold. The VLSFO index, in turn, increased by 9.82 USD (607.20 USD/MT versus 607.38 USD/MT last week), once again surpassing the 600 USD level. The MGO index recorded a gain of 8.04 USD, going up from 790.85 USD/MT to 798.89 USD/MT. At the time of writing, the market was in an uptrend.

    The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - experienced minimal changes during Week 21, with a marginal increase of $0.55 ($120.87 compared to $120.32 last week). However, the weekly average continued its downward trajectory, decreasing by $3.27. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread saw a modest rise of $2, reaching $92.00, which remained consistently below the $100 mark. Conversely, the weekly average declined by $3.00. 00. In Singapore, the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO also exhibited an upward trend, with an increase of $3.00 by the end of the week ($127.00 versus $124.00 last week). The weekly average recorded a gain of $9.84. Presently, the downward trend in the SS Spread has halted, and there is a possibility of an upward correction in the near-term outlook. More information is available in the Differentials section on www.mabux.com.

    The EU announced the successful outcome of the first-ever international tender for joint purchasing of EU gas supplies. During this tender, the EU managed to attract bids from 25 supplying companies equivalent to more than 13.4 billion cubic meters of gas (bcm) – surpassing the 11.6 bcm of joint demand that EU companies submitted through the recently established AggregateEU mechanism.

    The price of LNG as bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) has continued its decline and as of May 22, it reached 742 USD/MT. This represents a decrease of 17 USD compared to the previous week. LNG is now priced at 10 USD cheaper than conventional fuel, marking the first time this has occurred since October 2022. On the same day, MGO LS in the port of Sines was quoted at 752 USD/MT. This downward trend in LNG prices creates favorable conditions for the further expansion of the LNG fleet. More information is available in the LNG Bunkering section of www.mabux.com.

    Throughout Week 21, the MDI index, which measures the correlation between market bunker prices (MABUX MBP Index) and the digital bunker benchmark MABUX (MABUX DBP Index), indicated that 380 HSFO fuel was undervalued in all four selected ports. The average weekly underprice ratio decreased by 1 point in Rotterdam and Houston, while it increased by the same 1 point in Singapore and Fujairah.

    Regarding the VLSFO segment, according to MDI, Singapore is the only overcharged port. The average overprice level increased by 7 points. The remaining three ports were undervalued, with average levels up 3 points in Rotterdam and 8 points in Houston, and down 7 points in Fujairah.

    In the MGO LS segment, Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston continued to be undervalued. Rotterdam's average weekly undercharge margin increased by 3 points, while Singapore and Houston saw decreases of 9 and 2 points respectively. Fujairah remained the only overvalued port, although the overprice premium decreased further by $22.

    For more detailed information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark, please refer to the "Digital Bunker Prices" section at www.mabux.com.

    A new paper on dual fuel retrofits from DNV and MAN Energy Solutions (MAN ES) says that retrofit costs, including fuel storage and the fuel supply system, can range between $5 million and $15 million depending on the fuel choice, and ‘as a rule of thumb’ should not be more than 25% of a vessel’s construction cost ‘to be economically viable. While the use of biofuels is ‘the most straightforward way’ to cut emissions on existing vessels without making large capital investments, these fuels come with challenges, such as availability of supply and high prices. Although biofuel adoption increased in 2022, the new paper notes that it still only accounts for 0.1% of the maritime energy mix. A ship should typically have a minimum newbuild cost of around $50 million to be suitable for retrofitting and vessels meeting these criteria include tankers above 50,000 DWT, bulkers above 160,000 DWT and containerships above 7,000 TEU.  DNV and MAN ES also highlight that in some cases, such as for ships retrofitting to methanol, the costs can be lower. All in all, less than 10% of the existing global merchant fleet are regarded as theoretic candidates for retrofitting.

    We expect the global bunker market still retains the potential for further downtrend, while irregular fluctuations in bunker indices may prevail in the upcoming week.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX

2023 September 25

18:07 Meyer Werft starts construction of the new cruise ship for NYK Cruises
17:35 Port of Vancouver cargo volumes increase by 11% in H1 2023
17:24 Number of ships servicing FESCO’s direct line between Saint-Petersburg and ports of China and India to double by year end
17:13 MOL, PETRONAS and MISC set the stage for the development of liquefied CO2 carriers
16:18 Throughput of Turkish ports in 8M’23 totaled 349.3 million tonnes, down 4.3% YoY
15:31 Ecospray's two Carbon Capture technologies successfully tested onboard
15:01 ADNOC and TAQA reach financial close on sustainable water supply project
14:53 Samara based Nefteflot to build three multipurpose dry cargo ships of RSD34L design
14:35 ITOCHU executes MoU for ammonia bunkering safety for ammonia-fueled container carrier
14:12 Alfa Laval joins a project to develop and produce the world's first 10 MW green hydrogen production facility offshore in the North Sea
13:48 Babcock’s LGE business wins world first contract for ecoCO2 cargo handling system
13:20 Oboronlogistics and Chinese manufacturers of spare parts and equipment reached preliminary agreements on direct supplies
12:14 All 120 workers rescued after Nile cruise ship accident in Egypt
11:42 China's shipbuilding output up 16.9 percent to 27.98 dwt in the first eight months of this year
11:24 COSL enters into the rigs purchase and sale contracts
11:13 Astrakhan based shipyard of USC launches chemical tanker Azimuth-1
10:58 Port of Rotterdam and Yokogawa start study to increase energy and resource efficiency across industries
10:27 COSCO SHIPPING launches the automotive industry digital supply chain platform
09:42 Port of Liepaja throughput in 8M’2023 fell by 9% Y-o-Y to 4.57 million tonnes
09:18 Total throughput of China’s sea and river ports in 8M’2023 rose by 8.4% YoY

2023 September 24

17:26 Pyxis Tankers announces sale of product tanker
15:47 ITOCHU announces execution of MoU for ammonia bunkering safety for ammonia-fueled container carrier
14:19 Elyse Energy announces the opening of an e-methanol plant on the Roches-Roussillon chemical hub
12:05 Joint development of AI-powered automatic daft survey application
11:58 Candela's C-8 foiling craft covered 420 nm in a day
10:31 ITOCHU signs MoU with Peninsula to develop ammonia bunkering in Spain

2023 September 23

15:23 Hapag-Lloyd to enhance connectivity at sea with Starlink satellite Internet
13:41 Hanwha Ocean inks 4-way deal on development of liquefied CO2 carrier
12:09 Vessels are among the first in the world to demonstrate the potential of hydrogen fuel cells
10:17 ABB to power Samskip’s new hydrogen-fueled container vessels

2023 September 22

19:41 IAA PortNews’ summary of past week news
18:00 PETRONAS, MOL and MISC to jointly develop LCO2 carriers for CCS projects
17:06 Ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Shanghai unveil Implementation Plan Outline for first trans-Pacific green shipping corridor
16:32 Workers protest against HHLA’s partial sale to MSC
16:25 ZIM offers direct service between WCSA and Savannah
16:07 Exports of Russian fish products in 8M’23 increased by 4% YoY to 1.4 million tonnes
15:49 Construction begins on Crowley-ESVAGT wind farm service vessel
15:21 APM Terminals Apapa – Ibdan rail connection opens for congestion-free business
14:51 Ascenz Marorka weather routing solution to equip the entire fleet of Clean Products Tankers Alliance
14:22 Guangzhou Port Group and Jiangsu Port Group sign a strategic cooperation framework agreement
13:59 Throughput of port Shanghai (China) in 8M’2023 rose by 10% YoY
13:41 A.P. Moller – Maersk opens new warehouse in Douala, Cameroon
13:12 Samsung Heavy Industries develops laser high-speed welding robot for LNG vessels
12:54 Container throughput of Hong Kong port (China) in 8M’2023 fell by 15% YoY
12:31 Seaside LNG joins SEA-LNG coalition
12:20 Project on modernization of Nikolayevsk-on-Amur port included in Khabarovsk PDA
12:11 Zulu Associates contracts Conoship International to design the autonomous zero-emission shortsea vessel ‘Zulu Mass’
11:40 Royal Caribbean completes 12 consecutive weeks of biofuel testing in Europe
11:10 FERC approves the permit authorizing the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 expansion project
10:43 Mawani and Saudi Investment Recycling Company sign green deal
10:12 Port of Oakland container volume down 13.1% in August 2023
09:56 Nuclear-powered icebreaker Sibir of Project 22220 returns to Murmansk upon completion of its NSR navigation season
09:24 Domestic equipment for a-Navigation to be installed on bilge water removing ship under construction at Okskaya Shipyard
09:03 CSSC Huangpu Wenchong secures feeder pair from CK Line

2023 September 21

18:13 Vertom welcomes 3rd methanol/hydrogen-ready electric bulker
17:50 Annual coal exports from Russia may grow by 28% to 252 million tonnes by 2030
17:21 Bahri and Saudi Ports Authority ink sustainability agreements
16:58 Yakutia to obtain shares of Zhatai Shipyard JSC if the shipyard construction is completed in 2024
16:34 PEMA and ICHCA sign MoU to advance sustainable practices and safety standards in the cargo handling sector
15:56 Rosatom estimates future demand for ice class ships intended for operation on NSR
15:09 Greek-flagged ship is the first LNG dual fuel VLCC to join the Green Award programme
14:42 Europe's ports express concern about first signs of carbon and business leakage ahead of the start of the EU ETS for the maritime sector
14:37 First Container Terminal starts handling containerships of China - Sri Lanka – Russia line
14:13 COSCO SHIPPING and State Power Investment sign a Memorandum of Cooperation Agreement
13:41 Melbourne’s VICT welcomes the largest container vessel ever to dock in Australia
13:15 Contract awarded to Royal IHC for the maintenance of three auxiliary vessels of the Royal Netherlands Navy
12:43 Kalmar becomes first ports and terminals industry solution provider to receive cyber security certification for its automation system for all terminal equipment
12:38 Nine voyages made by FESCO’s container line from Chinese ports to Pevek this navigation season
11:46 China’s first green marine methanol industrial chain cooperation project officially launched
11:17 Cemre Shipyard holds keel laying and steel cutting ceremony of Little Minch ferries