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  • MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 11, 2023
  • 2023 March 16 15:27

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 11, 2023

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    Over the Week 11, MABUX global bunker indices reverted to a firm downtrend. The 380 HSFO index fell by 17.46 USD: from 489.07 USD/MT last week to 471.61 USD/MT. The VLSFO index decreased by 26.64 USD (641.41 USD/MT versus 668.05 USD/MT last week). The MGO index also lost 30.95 USD (from 946.20 USD/MT last week to 915.25 USD/MT), coming close to 900 USD mark. At the time of writing, the market was still in a downtrend.

    The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - showed a firm decline in a Week 11 - minus $9.16 ($169.80 vs. $178.89 last week). At the same time, the weekly average also decreased by $8.90. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread fell by $17.00 to $145.00 (vs. $162.00 last week), while the weekly average lost $8.67. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price difference also continued to decrease: minus $ 8, dropping to $ 139 (the weekly average weekly lost $ 2.50). We expect SS Spread to continue downtrend next week. More information is available in the "Differentials" section of www.mabux.com.

    As per the International Energy Agency (IEA), natural gas demand in the European Union fell in 2022 by 55 bcm, or 13%, its steepest drop in history. The IEA said that the milder winter temperatures ‘certainly played a role’, as it noted that Heating Degree Days (a measure of how much energy is required to heat a building due to colder weather) across the European Union (EU) were 12% lower on average in 2022 than in 2021. ‘Production curtailment’ in ‘energy-intensive industries’ played a major part in the natural gas demand drop, as ‘several plants reduced production, and in some cases imported finished products from outside the EU instead of manufacturing them domestically at higher cost'. Other significant factors including ‘fuel switching’ and ‘behavioural changes’ (i.e. households turning the thermostat down and using less hot water) in response to the higher natural gas prices. In terms of fuel switching, the IEA estimated that ‘around 7 bcm of gas-to-oil switching occurred in the industrial sector’.

    Despite the general downward trend in natural gas indices, the price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) increased and reached 1161 USD/MT on March 13 (plus 99 USD compared to the previous week). The price difference between LNG and conventional fuel also widened on March 13 to 272 USD: MGO LS at the port of Sines was quoted at 989 USD/MT that day. However, we do not expect LNG prices to continue their upward trend in the near term. More information is available in the LNG Bunkering section of www.mabux.com.

    Over the Week 11, the MDI index (correlation of MABUX market bunker prices (MBP Index) vs MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP Index)) registered undervaluation of 380 HSFO fuel in all four selected ports. The weekly average showed a reduction at all ports. The most significant was MDI decline at Rotterdam: minus 76 points at once reaching minus $31 mark. In Singapore, Fujairah and Houston, MDI showed minus $74, minus $98 and minus $53, respectively.

    In the VLSFO segment, according to MDI, the three selected ports - Rotterdam, Singapore and Fujairah - remain undervalued by minus $5, minus $15 and minus $21, respectively. The underestimation weekly average moderately narrowed. Houston remained the only overvalued port in this fuel segment with a plus $27, the overpricing level slightly increased.

    There are still three ports in the MGO LS segment: Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston. The weekly average underpricing premium rose moderately in Rotterdam and Singapore to $94 and $101 respectively but decreased in Houston to $54. Fujairah remained the only overvalued port - plus $155. In general, the MDI changes in this fuel segment were insignificant.

    There are three underpriced ports in the MGO LS segment: Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston. Average weekly undercharge ratio slightly declined at Rotterdam and Houston to $58 and $48 respectively but rose to $104 in Singapore. Fujairah remains the only overvalued port - plus $143. In general, there is gradual narrowing of undervaluation margins registered in all fuel segments.

    More information on the correlation between market prices and MABUX digital benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section at mabux.com.

    The 3,794,300 metric tonnes (mt) of marine fuel sales in the Port of Singapore last month was 8.3% up on the 3,504,000 mt recorded in February 2022. However, last month’s total marked a 13.3% decrease on the 4,376,900 mt registered in January, Sales of very low sulphur fuel oil 380 cSt stood at 1,938,500 mt for the month – 11.8% up on the 1,733,500 mt recorded in February 2022 but 15.7% down on January’s total. For a ninth successive month, sales of high sulphur fuel oil 380 cSt (1,105,600 mt) surpassed the 1 million tonne mark. The 297,000 mt of low sulphur marine gasoil sales represented a 5.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase but a 5.3% decrease on the 313,700 mt recorded in January. Over the first two months of the year a total of 8,171,200 mt of marine fuel was sold in Singapore compared to 7,533,000 during the same period in 2022.

    Global bunker market retreated to downtrend following crude oil as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and problems with Credit Suisse sparked fears of a fresh financial crisis that could reduce future oil and fuel demand. We expect bunker indices to keep falling next week.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX

2023 June 6

17:55 Six agreements signed with key investors to ensure cost-effective cargo base for NSR
17:41 WinGD and Mitsubishi Shipbuilding sign MoU for ammonia collaboration
17:32 AD Ports Group inks 25 years agreement with Crystal Offshore
17:16 ULMATEC wins third W2W contract
16:44 First battery electric tug from Sanmar Shipyards delivered to ABS class
15:58 Russian Railways increased export coal transportation to North-West ports by 22.8% in 5M’2023
15:36 Boskalis and Royal IHC sign LOI to build a new 31,000 m3 TSHD
15:24 Maritime professionals warn of insufficient investment in cyber security as risks escalate in the era of connectivity – DNV
14:13 OOCL expands its fleet with another 24,188 TEU container vessel “OOCL Turkiye”
14:05 Austal Vietnam delivers a high speed catamaran to French Polynesia
13:54 Samara based shipyard of Nefteflot to launch sixth survey ship of Project RDB 66.62 on June 7
13:23 SW Tasman redesigned to deliver next-gen deepwater dual ROV OBN vessel
13:17 HD Hyundai Heavy Industries develops next-generation models of Korean destroyers and other combat ships
12:55 Transportation of containers on Russian Railways’ network in 5M’2023 rose by 11.3% YoY
12:31 ONE takes delivery of 24,000-teu container ship "ONE INNOVATION"
11:46 Gasum starts building Europe's northernmost liquefied biogas filling station in Finnish Lapland
11:41 Boosting maritime security in Togo - IMO
11:23 Croatian Navy places a repeat order for PLAR-4000 davit for its OPV
10:19 DNV grants WARMS Approval in Principle
10:00 Russian Railways increased cargo transportation by North-South ITC by 54% - Oleg Belozerov
09:19 Bunker sales at Vladivostok port in 5M’2023 fell by 21% YoY

2023 June 5

18:27 Pacific maritime leaders to meet on maritime issues this week in Sydney
18:02 Nuclear-powered icebreaker 50 Let Pobedy escorted 125 vessels over winter-spring navigation season
17:51 ABB wins large systems order for Havfram Wind’s two new offshore wind turbine installation vessels
17:41 Ardmore Shipping gets carbon capture ready with VM’s emissions-reducing technology
17:36 Inmarsat Maritime report presents framework for a successful transition to a greener future
17:16 Biofuel key to maritime decarbonization, but proliferation challenged by scarce supply, says DNV
16:53 COSCO SHIPPING Heavy Industry Technology signs methanol fuel supply system project for four container ships
16:26 OPEC+ countries agreed to adjust oil production to 40.46 million barrels per day
16:08 COSCO SHIPPING Lines launches ANE service maiden voyage
15:31 USCG Dependable returns from 42-day patrol
15:22 The EC presents its legislative package with the aim of improving maritime safety – ETA
14:27 Viking Cinderella to return to Helsinki for the summer
14:04 Mikhail Mishustin calls for facilitation of lifting sunken ships in the Far East
13:52 SITC International accepts delivery of M/V “SITC HUIMING”
13:48 UECC expands its LNG operations in the Mediterranean
13:39 Wan Hai Lines holds ship naming ceremony for new vessels accompanied by a Charity Donation
13:18 Oboronlogistics’ ferry Lavrentiy returned to Crimea–Caucasus line upon completion of scheduled repairs
12:53 U.S., Philippine, Japan Coast Guards to conduct trilateral engagements – USCG
12:21 Helix Energy Solutions awarded significant full-field decommissioning contract in U.S. Gulf of Mexico Shelf
11:53 Russian Railways: freight loading volumes from January to May 2023 amounted to 517.6 million tons
11:09 Two cargo vessels collide off Greek island, near Turkey
10:28 Singapore is re-elected to the Council of IALA
10:04 Nobel Brothers Shipyard launches crab caching ship Vladimir
09:25 Russian Government to allocate additional RUB 1 billion to create equipment for civil ships

2023 June 4

17:02 ABP’s Port of Ayr provides key supply chain link in green energy expansion
15:53 The Nantes-Saint Nazaire Port presents its installations and its strategy to ORTM
15:21 A new CMA CGM service to Spain and Portugal
14:11 Port of Everett earns 2023 Job Creator award
13:29 Victoria International Container Terminal welcomes COSCO’s ANE service
12:22 US refineries face operational, workforce risks from delayed planned maintenance - S&P Global
11:58 KONGSBERG successfully demonstrates autonomous vessel operations on Belgium’s inland waterway network

2023 June 3

15:47 Alfa Laval unveils two new hygienic valves
13:01 ABB's Andrea Antonelli steps down
11:20 Port of Corpus Christi names interim CEO
10:51 Kalmar introduces collision warning system for straddle carriers
10:18 Synaptec announces million pound sensor system order from Proserv
09:54 Peel Ports builds brand new £28m warehouse facility at Port of Liverpool

2023 June 2

18:26 Port leaders extend Climate Action Program for greener shipping
18:12 IAA PortNews’ summary of past week news