• Home
  • News
  • MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 05, 2023
  • 2023 February 2 13:39

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 05, 2023

    World bunker indices may show a moderate uptrend next week

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    Over the Week 05, MABUX global bunker indices showed a moderate downward correction. The 380 HSFO index fell by 9.32 USD: from 490.19 USD/MT last week to 480.87 USD/MT. The VLSFO index, in turn, decreased by 8.46 USD (713.73 USD/MT versus 722.19 USD/MT last week). The MGO index also lost 35.10 USD (from 1076.50 USD/MT last week to 1041.40 USD/MT). We expect this is a short-run downward correction and the global bunker market still retains the potential for further uptrend.

    Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - remained virtually unchanged over the Week 05 - plus $0.86 ($232.86 vs. $232.00 last week), although the average increased by $9.66. In Rotterdam, SS Spread rose by $13.00 to $206.00 (vs. $193.00 last week), breaking the psychological $200 mark. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price difference was flat at $268.00. Meantime, the SS Spread weekly averages in Rotterdam and Singapore also added $13.16 and $8.16, respectively. More information is available in the "Differentials" section at www.mabux.com.

    EU gas inventories are still unusually high for this time of the year – at full across the EU and well above the five-year average for the winter heating season. The high volumes of gas in storage and the constant influx of LNG cargoes are easing supply concerns in the absence of most of the Russian pipeline gas.

    Despite that the price of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) unexpectedly rose significantly for the first time in the last 8 weeks and reached 1446 USD/MT on January 30 (plus 271 USD compared to last week). The price difference between LNG and conventional fuel was 390 USD on January 30: MGO LS at the port of Sines was quoted at 1056 USD/MT that day. We expect LNG bunker prices may fall again next week.

    During the Week 05, the MDI index (comparison of MABUX market bunker prices (MBP Index) vs MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP Index)) maintained an underestimation of 380 HSFO fuel in all four selected ports. The underprice premium sharply decreased in Rotterdam to minus $34 from minus $123 last week. In the other selected ports, the undercharge ratio changed insignificantly and amounted to minus $ 125 in Singapore, minus $ 163 in Fujairah and minus $ 80 in Houston.

    In the VLSFO segment, according to MDI, three selected ports: Singapore, Fujairah and Houston are still in the overcharge zone: plus $45, plus $28 and plus $16, respectively. Rotterdam remains the only VLSFO underestimated port: minus $24. Overprice margins have risen while underpricing has declined.

    In the MGO LS segment, Fujairah remains the only overvalued port: plus $ 116 while overcharge ratio moderately increased. In all other ports, the MDI registered an underpricing of MGO LS: Rotterdam – minus $63, Singapore – minus $91 and Houston –  minus $12. The underprice levels narrowed slightly.

    More information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section at www.mabux.com.

    The Port of Rotterdam Authority registered 29,029 sea-going vessel arrivals in 2022 – 0.5% up on the 28,876 seen in 2021. However, the number of inland vessels saw a slight decrease on the year, from 98,469 in 2021 to 97,459 in 2022. Looking ahead, the Port Authority noted that from July methanol ‘will be bunkered regularly’. ‘Ahead of this, the preconditions for safe bunkering have now been agreed with the parties involved,’ the Port of Rotterdam Authority said. Methanol was included on the European bunker hub’s 2022 marine fuel statistics. The total volume of traditional and bio-blended marine fuel oil and distillate products delivered in Rotterdam last year was 10,510,355 metric tonnes – up substantially on the 9,592,145 mt sold in 2021. However, LNG bunker volumes fell 45% on the year.

    There are a lot of uncertainties regarding Russian fuel supply in the coming months, the key being whether Russia can place the fuel displaced from Europe elsewhere, and whether a planned price cap on Russia’s fuels would work as intended. Despite the current downward correction in the global bunker market, we are of option that there is still the potential for further growth. World bunker indices may show a moderate uptrend next week.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX

2023 March 24

18:28 IAA PortNews’ summary of past week news
18:05 Damen Maaskant offers future-proof solution for tropical shrimp fishermen
17:41 Stolthaven Terminals joins the Ammonia Energy Association
17:16 Silversea Cruises and MEYER WERFT celebrate the keel laying of Silver Ray
17:07 Sea terminal to be built in Novorossiysk under concession scheme
16:55 Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion demonstration project in Okinawa selected by Japan's Ministry of the Environment
16:34 Channel Ports and DFDS join forces to decarbonise cross-Channel transport
16:34 New ferry Stanislav Agapov to start operation in Ust-Kamchatsk in spring 2024
16:13 Annual capacity of ports Olya and Makhachkala to be increased by 5.6 million tonnes
15:49 WinGD to deliver methanol engines for COSCO SHIPPING Lines container vessels
15:25 Ministry of Energy reports 20-pct decrease of coal industry’s negative impact on water bodies over recent 5 years
15:03 Liberty Lines’ hybrid ferry order at Astilleros Armon expands to twelve
14:51 Nakhodka shipyard estimates readiness of crab catcher Kapitan Khazan of Project CCa5712LS at 86%
14:34 New hybrid ferry 'P&O Pioneer' docks at DP World Limassol for bunkering
14:13 China's Xinxing to invest $2 bln in Suez Canal Economic Zone
13:42 Port of Antwerp-Bruges and Port of Amsterdam join forces with Routescanner
13:08 Maersk signs MOU with Shanghai International Port Group on green methanol bunkering
13:02 Livestock Express renews and upgrades its agreement with Wartsila to improve vessel reliability
12:58 Marine Engineering Center SPb expects construction of Volga-Don Extra Max class ships to begin in 2023
12:37 Austal Philippines delivers largest ever, high-speed catamaran constructed by Austal to Molslinjen
12:13 Lineas and DFDS join forces to transport containers and trailers from Ghent in North Sea Port by rail
11:12 Elnusa signs Mou with Khan for offshore platform decommissioning project
10:56 Construction of dry port in Rostov Region is under consideration
10:41 TECO 2030 signs an MOU with an undisclosed party for up to 50MW of hydrogen engines
10:25 Damen announces technical acceptance of Damen CSD650 and MuC1506
10:20 Creating transport and logistics corridors is an important element in RF Government’s effort to open up our economy – Mikhail Mishustin
09:52 A broad spectrum of support mechanisms expanded and revived to finance import substitution — RF Prime Minister
09:29 Rosmorrechflot head set a task to reduce the construction time of Pionersky terminal

2023 March 23

18:18 Port of Aberdeen hosts more than 100 vessels working on offshore wind projects in 2023
17:51 China surged its coal imports in January-February 2023
17:45 Peel Ports acquires HES Humber Bulk Terminal
17:23 US-led alliance launches drone patrols to monitor Gulf energy shipping lanes - S&P Global Commodity Insights
17:14 China’s crude oil imports in January-February 2023 fell by 1.3% YoY
17:10 CMA CGM commences the only direct Japan-U.S. East Coast Service
16:48 Admiralteiskie Verfi shipyard held the first start of the main engine on Mekhanik Sizov trawler of Project СТ-192
16:47 IMO Secretary-General updated on Black Sea Grain initiative
16:22 BV-classed hybrid ferries with battery and solar power to be deployed in Hong Kong
16:16 Finland lifts arrest of Russian fertilizers in the port of Kotka
16:03 Port of Cork accelerates digitalisation with new AI-powered port system
15:25 “K” Line to install automated kite system on the coal carrier Corona Citrus
14:22 Return of railway ferry Baltiysk to Ust-Luga-Baltiysk line postponed to April 2023
14:03 Samskip starts a new innovative project that will reduce CO2 emissions for its vessels
13:27 European Council and the European Parliament announces new agreement to decarbonise the maritime sector
12:50 Global decrease of investments in oil and gas sector to result in shortage of facilities in 3-5 years
12:43 Ports of Stockholm explores safety aspects of autonomous shipping in innovative research project
12:29 Six сompanies team up to build, operate Japan's 1st methanol-fueled coastal tanker
11:42 Port of Oakland joins clean energy trade mission
10:55 Russian ship carrying a cargo of fertilizers detained in the Finnish port of Kotka
10:41 Hamburger Hafen und Logistik revenue up by 7.7 percent to € 1,578.4 million in 2022
10:32 Russian Railways increased volume of Pacific seafood shipments from Primorye by 6% in January-February 2023
10:25 Hyundai Heavy achieves world's first 200 million BHP milestone
09:57 Agency for Strategic Initiatives to support production of high-speed hydrofoils
09:20 Nevsky Shipyard lays down third serial tanker of Project 23130 for RF Defence Ministry

2023 March 22

19:19 MSCC Bronka (Saint-Petersburg) sold to Moscow company NKK-Logistik
17:30 Direct service from China to Saint-Petersburg launched by Transit
17:06 JERA and Virya Energy reach an agreement for the acquisition of Parkwind by JERA
16:41 Alfa Laval completes acquisition of innovative friction reduction technology
16:24 State Duma passed in its first reading Northern Delivery Bill
16:08 OGCI, Stena Bulk, GCMD project gets go-ahead to use carbon capture on oil tanker pilot to decarbonize shipping
15:46 Grimaldi signs the purchase agreement for the acquisition of a majority stake in the Igoumenitsa Port Authority