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  • MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 49, 2022
  • 2022 December 8 12:31

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 49, 2022

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    Despite expectations of sharp irregular changes provoked by price cap imposed by EU on Russian oil, the MABUX world bunker indices continued their firm decline over the Week 49. The 380 HSFO index fell by 15.82 USD: from 484.30 USD/MT last week to 468.48 USD/MT. The VLSFO index, in turn, fell by 13.20 USD, breaking through the 700 USD-mark (684.42 USD/MT versus 697.62 USD/MT last week). The MGO index also lost 34.87 USD (from 1042.36 USD/MT last week to 1007.49 USD/MT), coming close to the psychological mark of 1000 USD.

    Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - showed a slight growth over the Week 49 - plus $ 2.62 ($ 215.94 vs. $ 213.32 last week), still close to the $ 200 mark. The Rotterdam SS Spread, on the contrary, resumed its decline - minus $ 10.00 to $ 180.00 versus $ 190.00 last week. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential also narrowed by $9.00 ($252.00 from $261.00 last week). We expect SS Spread still should not have any sustainable direction next week. More information is available in the Differentials section at mabux.com.

    Europe’s natural gas demand in November fell by nearly a quarter compared to the five-year average for the month. High prices are clearly driving demand destruction, with industrial demand seeing the largest decrease. Despite that, cold weather and lower-than-normal nuclear and wind power generation are sending gas prices climbing.

    The price of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) rose to 2610 USD/MT on December 05 (plus 131 USD compared to last week). Thus, the price of LNG exceeds the cost of the most expensive traditional bunker fuel grade by 1603 USD: on November 05, the price of MGO LS at the port of Sines was quoted at 1007 USD/MT.

    Over the Week 49, the MDI index (comparison of MABUX market bunker prices (MBP Index) vs MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP Index)) showed underestimation of 380 HSFO fuel grade in all four selected ports. The underprice premium increased slightly: in Rotterdam - minus $ 127, Singapore - minus $133, Fujairah - minus $193 and Houston - minus $69.

    In the VLSFO segment, according to MDI, Singapore and Fujairah remained overvalued: plus $49 and plus $25, respectively. In Rotterdam and Houston, this fuel grade was underestimated by average minus $46 and minus $5. Underpricing decreased, while overpricing rose slightly.

    In the MGO LS segment, MDI continued to register fuel underpricing in two out of four selected ports: Rotterdam - minus $67 and Houston - minus $55. Singapore and Fujairah remained overpriced: plus $8 and plus $146, respectively. The undercharge premium, as well as overcharge one, according to MDI, have decreased slightly.

    A total of 3,840 vessels called the Port of Gibraltar during first 10 months of the year – 21.7% down on the 4,904 registered in the same period in 2021. Port operations, including bunkering, were halted following the grounding of the OS 35 bulk carrier at the end of August. On 7 September the Port of Gibraltar announced that non-bunkering operations were poised to resume while on 22 September it was reported by GAC that alongside bunkering had resumed. Accordingly, there were 209 calls for bunkers in September – the lowest monthly total of the year and 286 fewer than the 495 recorded in September 2021. On 25 November, the Gibraltar Port Authority (GPA) announced that a technical proposal for the removal of the OS 35 and all its contents had been agreed in principle. There were 119 commercial ship-to-ship operations in the period. In contrast, during the first 10 months of the 2021, there were just 16.

    DNV reported, seventeen LNG-fuelled vessels were added to the global order book in November with container vessels and car carriers constituting nearly two thirds of the new contracts, Total orders for LNG fuelled ships for the year to date have now reached 203, while methanol fuel orders have reached 35. As per DNV comments, ‘with the preliminary agreement at the EU last week that shipping will be included in EU ETS starting from 2024, all low-carbon options now make even more sense. Methane emissions will also be included, so methane slip from engines will come under even greater scrutiny.’

    The price cap on Russian oil, imposed by the European Union on December 05, has not yet had a significant impact on world bunker indices so far. The Global fuel market is waiting for Russia's reaction to the imposed restrictions. We expect the downward trend in the global bunker market to continue next week.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX

2023 February 1

17:31 Ports of Stockholm cargo volumes decrease from 9.1 to 8.9 million in 2022
17:16 I/B Arktika escorted LNG tanker Eduard Toll along the Northern Sea Route
16:57 Port Saint John recieves two new post-Panamax cranes to the container terminal
16:10 Zero VAT rate to be set for ship repair yards investing in production development
15:44 DSME contracts TMC for BW LNG’s carriers
15:24 The Drewry Global Port Throughput Index up by 0.8% in December, but 1.6% lower year-on-year
15:04 KSOE wins 2.53 tln-won order for 12 methanol-fueled container ships - Yonhap
14:47 Aleksandr Masko appointed as General Director of Port One JSC and Transportation Assets Management LLC
14:32 KENC receives contract for design and build of lifting frame for US offshore wind projects
14:08 POSCO International breaks ground for 2nd LNG Terminal in Gwangyang, Korea - BusinessKorea
13:55 Nuclear-powered container carrier Sevmorput to make two round voyages between Saint-Petersburg and the Far East in 2023
13:21 Russia boosts LNG exports to Europe by 20% in 2022 – Refinitiv
13:02 Port of Los Angeles releases draft request for proposals on cruise terminal development
13:00 Russian Railways' network loading in January 2022 fell by 4.8% YoY to 99.2 million tonnes
12:41 Ningbo Containerized Freight Index decline in January 2023
12:13 Long-term ocean freight rates drop by 13.3% in January - Xeneta
11:58 Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East and Arctic calls on facilitation of border crossing for RF-flagged cruise ships
11:42 PALFINGER awarded a contract by KNRM for twelve custom-built Rigid-Hulled Inflatable Boats
11:17 New Norwegian consortium plans develop a complete hydrogen value chain for Northern Xplorer AS first zero-emission cruise ship
10:49 7 berths to be repaired in the port of Makhachkala by the end of Q2’2023
10:41 Equinor leaves the Barents Blue project as agreement period ends
10:09 OSM is the first Greek ship owner and manager to partner with the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation
09:31 MAN Energy Solutions signs MoU with SH Defence
09:17 FESCO dispatches a batch of electric cars from China to Russia for the first time
09:05 Capacity to increase on the main trade routes in 8 weeks post-Chinese New Year - Sea-Intelligence
08:06 SITC announces the delivery for M/V “SITC ANHE”

2023 January 31

18:02 NSSLGlobal wins coveted UK Ministry of Defence contract
17:28 Marubeni implements the first large-scale offshore wind power project in Japan at Akita Port and Noshiro Port
17:22 Total throughput of Chinese sea and river ports in 2022 climbed by 0.9% YoY
17:16 World’s oldest cruise ship sold for recycling - TradeWinds
17:10 King Abdullah Port registers 3.25% in container, 143% in break bulk and 108% in agri bulk in 2022
16:57 AMSA releases compliance strategy for next four years
16:31 January 2023 sees record-breaking fall in long-term container rates for ocean freight
16:25 Two sister vessels to join MISC’s eco-efficient LNG carrier fleet
15:24 WinGD and CMB.TECH co-develop large ammonia-fuelled engines
15:06 First cargo ship handled at Lugaport terminal in the port of Ust-Luga
14:45 Titan to retrofit two LNG carriers for bunkering in Europe - Ship & Bunker
14:13 Hapag-Lloyd revenues up to USD 36.4 billion in 2022
13:40 Oboronlogistics’ Sparta IV completed yet another voyage to the port of Tartus
13:24 Incident at the Pacific Entrance of the Panama Canal is under control
12:38 Economic efficiency of technologies for repair of hydraulic engineering facilities to be covered at dedicated event
12:15 Port of Valencia traffic decreased in all sectors in 2022
11:45 European Commission proposes $45/bl price cap for Russian fuel oil
11:42 Saint-Petersburg Governor signs law on ‘tax cash back’ for stevedoring companies
11:20 Four new Pacific International Lines container ships to benefit from integration of Wartsila solutions
11:05 IMO agrees draft revised Guidelines for the reduction of underwater noise from commercial shipping
10:54 ABS approves Bassoe Technology’s D-Floater floating wind foundation design for world’s largest turbines
10:34 Parliament vote positive step towards competitive ship finance in Europe - ECSA
10:14 NYK and Ghelia form business and capital alliance
09:59 Sevmash performs maintenance service of fourth-generation submarines
09:26 RF Government approves procedure for implementation of presidential order on measures in response to oil price cap

2023 January 30

18:37 Shell announces Executive Committee and Directorate changes
18:07 Biden-Harris administration announces more than $380 mln in grants to modernize ferry services
17:53 Port of Aberdeen welcomes Minister for Industry and Investment Security Nusrat Ghani
17:42 Boskalis acquires EUR 120 million contract for development and climate adaptive measures for Gulhifalhu in the Maldives
17:31 Euronav filed an application request for arbitration on the merits in relation to Frontline’s termination of the combination agreement
17:21 First Australian coal cargoes since end of ban to enter China in Feb - Reuters
17:08 Cemre Shipyard chooses NES for twin hull SOVs
16:47 ArcelorMittal Belgium and North Sea Port are to build the North-C Circular industrial estate on ArcelorMittal's Ghent site
16:29 Keppel O&M and Sembmarine merger transaction get SGX approval