• Home
  • News
  • Russia may ramp up its gas supplies to Asian markets to a level close to its exports to EU in a decade - IEA
  • 2022 July 5 16:24

    Russia may ramp up its gas supplies to Asian markets to a level close to its exports to EU in a decade - IEA

    The phase-out of Russian gas from the EU market is expected to intensify Russia’s efforts to reconfigure its gas and LNG exports towards Asia, according to Gas Market Report, Q3-2022, published today by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The Agency specialists indicate that in a best-case scenario for Russia it would take at least a decade to ramp up its gas supplies to Asian markets to a level close to its 2021 exports to the European Union (155 bcm).

    Russia’s pivot to the east would also necessitate the development of new gas export infrastructure and require significant capital investment, the report says.

    China is by far Russia’s largest market in Asia (17 bcm), followed by Japan (9 bcm) and Korea (4 bcm). Russia’s natural gas exports to Asia totalled 32 bcm in 2021, of which 10 bcm were exported via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China and the remainder via LNG from the Sakhalin-II (Gazprom, Shell, Mitsui and Mitsubishi) and YAMAL LNG (NOVATEK, Total and CNPC) plants to various Asian markets.

    IEA forecasts that Russia’s gas deliveries to Asian markets could increase by 40 bcm/yr to reach just over 70 bcm/yr by 2025. Under the longterm contract underpinning gas supplies via the Power of Siberia pipeline, Russia’s gas exports to China are set to increase to 15 bcm in 2022 and gradually ramp up to 38 bcm/yr by 2025.

    Russia can divert over 10 bcm of LNG passing through the YAMAL LNG plant from Europe to Asian markets. Rerouting all the LNG flows from Europe to Asia would significantly increase shipping costs, especially during the December to June period when navigation on the Northern Sea Route is limited due to ice and weather conditions, says the Agency. Its forecast assumes that Arctic LNG train 1 will be commissioned, which could increase LNG supplies to Asian markets by 9 bcm/yr.

    IEA reminds that Gazprom and CNPC signed a 10 bcm/yr long-term contract in February 2022 for gas deliveries via the Far Eastern pipeline route (according to non-official sources, for a duration of 25 years). The expected resource base for the gas deliveries, the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field, could start production in 2023-2025. Meanwhile, the current sanctions put at risk the development of Arctic trains 2 and 3, which are assumed to be delayed beyond 2025. According to NOVATEK, annual capacity of all the three trains of Arctic LNG 2 is estimated at 6.6 million tonnes each.

    As for the planned 50 bcm/yr Power of Siberia, the report refers to Gazprom’s own estimates: the pipeline could be constructed by 2027/28. Notably, no legally binding supply contract has been agreed for this route and negotiations between Gazprom and its counterparts in China may last for several years, possibly delaying its start-up to beyond 2030.

    After February 2022, lower flows from Russia to Europe were compensated by higher pipeline deliveries from alternative sources and record volumes of LNG inflow, IEA says. Pipeline supplies from Norway rose by over 8% in the first half of 2022, while gas deliveries from Azerbaijan via the TAP pipeline surged by over 70% y-o-y. LNG imports rose by 60% y-o-y to over 80 bcm in H1 2022 – their highest-ever level for this period of the year with the United States being Europe’s largest LNG supplier.

    The report says that OECD Europe’s domestic gas production is expected to increase by 3% in 2022, driven by higher output in Norway and the United Kingdom. Higher storage injection needs are set to provide strong support for imports in H2. Considering available capacities and assuming that Nord Stream flows will remain at 63 mcm/d, Russian piped gas flows are expected to fall by 40% y-o-y in 2022, largely compensated by higher LNG inflows, up by over 45%.




2022 August 17

18:37 NFE and Apollo funds complete $2 bln LNG maritime joint venture
18:07 Steerprop to supply a complete propulsion package for first-of-its-kind Wind Installation Vessel
17:31 Svitzer brazil strengthens fleet with two newbuilds
17:23 SFL Corporation agrees to acquire four Suezmax tankers in combination with long term charters
17:12 TransContainer obtains 58.51% of SASCO stake
17:09 SCHOTTEL RudderPropellers to power world’s first hydrogen tug
16:47 Traffic along Rhine further hindered after vessel's engine failure - Reuters
16:14 Iranian company Khazar Sea Shipping Lines launches regular Caspian services between Iran and Russia
15:56 New E-Flexer ferry Stena Estelle takes up operation on 4 September
15:35 SCZONE signs MoU with Toyota Tsusho for infrastructure projects
14:55 Port of Hamburg's total throughput up 0.9 percent to 4.4 million TEU in H1 2022
14:35 Saudi Ports register 16% growth in cargo volumes in July 2022
14:25 Throughput of Chinese sea and river ports in 7M’2022 climbed by 0.1% YoY
13:13 RUSCON launched multimodal service between Japan and Kazakhstan
12:41 DFDS reports strong Q2 results and upgrads its outlook for the full year
12:11 Philippine Ports Authority net income up 9% in 1H 2022
11:42 New floating production unit delivered to ABS Class
11:26 NYK Tokyo Container Terminal starts operations of four transfer cranes
10:58 Global Ports Holding signs 30-year concession agreement for San Juan Cruise Port, Puerto Rico
10:09 Port of Long Beach releases the Deep Draft Navigation Integrated Feasibility Report
09:41 Crowley secures subcontract for hybrid-electric ferry
09:38 Delo Group acquired Sakhalin Shipping Company
09:17 Crude oil futures rise after a fall at the previous session
08:55 MABUX: Global bunker prices to continue firm downward trend on Aug 17

2022 August 16

18:11 Viktor Chernomyrdin icebreaker officially received the status of a passenger ship
17:55 Sailing ship Mir takes on board second shift of cadets this year
17:36 Wan Hai Lines acquired four 3,000 TEU containerships from CSBC Corporation
17:06 Gulf Navigation seals refinancing deal for 5 petrochemical tankers
16:42 ABP appoints the lead for Port Talbot Transformation Programme
16:23 Port of Singapore bunker sales in 7M’2022 fell by 8.6% YoY
16:04 More than 500 workers of the port of Liverpool to strike over an ‘inadequate’ pay offer - Unite
15:38 Port of Singapore throughput in 7M’2022 fell by 3.7% to 339.1 million tonnes
15:14 Reefer container freight rates stabilise but to outpace dry box pricing - Drewry
15:04 A.P. Moller - Maersk to adopt Viking’s HydroPen container firefighting system
14:49 Port of Helsinki throughput in January-July 2022 rose by 8.4% YoY
14:30 Suez Canal Authority and Maersk sign bilateral cooperation agreement
14:20 GoodFuels’ Asia-Pacific branch starts sustainable biofuel deliveries with NYK as first client
14:03 Paxocean, Hong Lam Marine and Bureau Veritas sign Mou to develop ammonia bunker vessel design
13:31 Korea’s automobile exports top US$5bn in July - BusinessKorea
13:02 Ship travel passenger numbers in Helsinki late summer up to 80% of pre-COVID levels
12:38 Equinor extends contracts for AHTS’s in Norway and Brazil
12:37 Vladivostok Sea Fishing Port included into China’s list of Russian fishery products suppliers
12:01 Maersk and Castlery sign multi-year global logistics and fulfilment agreement
11:48 IAA PortNews to hold discussion on fish ports development and fish delivery logistics at Seafood Expo Russia
11:30 Steerprop to supply a complete propulsion package for first-of-its- kind wind installation vessel
11:01 Kalmar and Tropical Shipping strengthen long-term relationship with new order for straddle carriers
10:20 Eneti announces sale of shareholding in Scorpio Tankers
10:09 Ocean Network Express connects to CargoWise to enable automatic digital rate transfer
09:37 Freeport of Riga increased its cargo turnover in 7M’22 by 13.1% YoY
09:18 MABUX: Downward trend returns back to Global bunker market on Aug 16
09:14 Crude oil futures continue decreasing after a fall due to reduction of demand in China
09:13 Furetank and Algoma establish joint venture to construct four climate friendly dual-fuel product tankers

2022 August 15

18:26 Fujian MSA and Fishing Authorities announce the 1st batch of hgh risk warning areas of collision between merchant ships and fishing boats
18:06 Port digitisation project at APM Terminals Liberia set to improve efficiency and ease of doing business
17:55 Vladivostok Sea Fishing Port to convert one of its berth into container storage yard
17:26 King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam breaks container throughput record in June
17:06 Keppel O&M wins US$2.9bn newbuild FPSO P-80 contract from Petrobras
16:41 Zero-carbon fuel readiness on the rise but challenges remain - LR
16:20 Container throughput of Hong Kong port (China) in 7M’2022 fell by 4.3% to 8.65 million TEU
16:01 De-Kastri port to handle four ships loaded with oversize cargo for Amur Gas Chemical Complex in 2022