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  • MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 26, 2022
  • 2022 June 30 13:49

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 26, 2022

    High volatility to continue in the global market next week with irregular fluctuations in bunker fuel prices

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    Over the Week 26, the world bunker indices did not have a firm trend and showed moderate irregular changes. The 380 HSFO index rose by a symbolic 0.26 USD: from 735.46 USD/MT to 735.72 USD/MT. The VLSFO index, in turn, went up by 6.84 USD: from 1063.02 USD/MT to 1069.86 USD/MT. The MGO index, on the contrary, dropped: minus 28.32 USD (from 1409.27 USD/MT to 1380.95 USD/MT), falling again below 1400 USD.

    The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) weekly average - the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - continued its slight upward trend over the week - plus $ 5.41 ($ 334.20 versus $ 328.78 last week). In Rotterdam, the average SS Spread rose more significantly: $307.00 vs. $290.33 (up $16.67 from last week). In Singapore, the average weekly price difference of 380 HSFO/VLSFO also rose by $16.33, close again to $500: $489.83 vs. $473.50 last week. For more information, please visit the Price Difference section on mabux.com.

    European benchmark gas prices jumped at the start of this week as Europe struggles to replace Russian gas losses to fill storage sites ahead of the winter. The price of LNG as bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) rose by 285 USD to 2963 USD/MT on June 27 (versus 2678 USD/MT a week earlier). LNG prices are still significantly higher than those of traditional bunker fuels, with the price of MGO LS at the port of Sines on June 27 being quoted at 1520 USD/MT.

    Over the week 26, the MDI index (comparison of MABUX MBP Index (market bunker prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX digital bunker benchmark)) continued to register an underestimation of 380 HSFO fuel grade in three ports out of four selected: Rotterdam - minus $ 60, Singapore - minus $ 84 and Fujairah - minus $47. Houston remains the only overpriced port - plus $ 50. MDI index did not have any single trend in the HSFO segment: in Rotterdam and Fujairah, the underprice ratio rose, while in Singapore it decreased. In Houston, the overprice premium rose as well.

    VLSFO fuel grade, according to MDI, remained overpriced at all four selected ports: plus $61 in Rotterdam, plus $229 in Singapore, plus $250 in Fujairah and plus $73 in Houston. Overprice premium rose in all ports, with the exception of Rotterdam. VLSFO fuel grade remains the most overvalued segment in the global bunker market, with Singapore and Fujairah over $200 mark.

    As for MGO LS, over the week MDI registered an overcharge of this fuel in all selected ports: Rotterdam - plus $ 22, Singapore - plus $ 44, Fujairah - plus $ 147 and Houston - plus $ 49. Rotterdam and Singapore returned into the overcharge zone.

    There are no significant changes registered in the correlation of market and benchmark digital MABUX (MDI) prices while the state of high volatility remains in global bunker market.

    A shipping industry safety consortium has completed a collaborative study on the risks of future fuels which finds that of the four fuels reviewed, methanol poses the least overall risk across four defined categories, followed by LNG, hydrogen and ammonia. Methanol scored the lowest risk ratings within navigation-related scenarios, such as loss of manoeuvrability, excessive motions or a black-out at sea, as well as in scenarios related to ship operations (other than bunkering), notably cargo operations in case of damage to equipment or vent mast and crew changes during vessel handovers. Methanol also scored the lowest (that is, ‘broadly acceptable’) risk ranking in the external event scenario of hull breach from ship collision. However, within bunkering scenarios, such as leaks or loss of containment, LNG and hydrogen held ‘broadly acceptable’ risk scores. Besides, there are well established international regulations for the use of LNG as fuel on board ships, whereas for hydrogen, no such regulations or guidance are available for either its usage as fuel or storage in the marine environment. Ammonia scored ‘broadly acceptable’ risk as a potential source of ignition in the scenario of tug support or third-party vessel attendance at sea. However, some risks for ammonia as a fuel are classified as high (or ‘intolerable’) in navigation scenarios like grounding or collision leading to a hull breach, cargo operations in case of damage to equipment or vent mast, and leaks or loss of containment during bunkering.

    We expect high volatility to continue in the global market next week. Bunker fuel prices may demonstrate sharp irregular fluctuations.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX

2022 August 8

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18:01 Acceptance testing for all three Baltic Pipe compressor stations in Poland is now complete
17:53 First ship with agricultural products from Ukraine arrives at the port of destination
17:36 International Marine Contractors Association issues burial at depth measurement guidance
17:06 Rhine water level falls again in Germany - Reuters
16:57 The number of wagons transported through the Port of Baku increased by 25.8%
16:24 EXMAR sells floating liquefaction unit to Eni
16:12 Ten men arrested for illegal transaction of marine gas oil at the port of Singapore
15:59 Tank container for LNG developed by Uralcryomash
15:46 Strikes announced at port of Felixstowe as company fails to make acceptable pay offer
14:41 LNG bunker prices near record high - Splash
14:23 Completion of ferry for Vanino-Kholmsk line can be postponed to 2023
13:54 Japan's INPEX demands US$970mn in damages from DSME - BusinessKorea
12:56 Port of HaminaKotka cargo turnover in January-July 2022 fell by 2% YoY
12:21 Bahri partners with Aventra Group
12:17 VSC commences handling new regular container service operated by SITC to S. Korea, China and Vietnam
11:44 NYK to build its fourth LPG dual-fuel very large LPG / NH3 carrier
10:58 Russian President bans unfriendly countries from transactions involving shares in hydrocarbon projects
10:41 Japan companies to establish Maritime and Ocean Digital Engineering Cooperation Program at the University of Tokyo
10:04 Geoizol wins tender for construction of infrastructure at Pionersky passenger terminal
09:16 Crude oil futures rise after a fall on August 5
08:57 MABUX: No firm trend in Global bunker market on Aug 08

2022 August 7

15:13 BPA calls for companies to join the Busan Port Overseas Market Expansion Project 2022
14:27 Wan Hai Lines holds online ship naming ceremony for new vessels
11:53 Keppel announces termination of contracts
09:49 INEOS at Grangemouth backs bid for Forth Green Freeport

2022 August 6

14:36 Announcement on execution of agreement regarding establishment of JVC with TOYO
12:31 Borr receives LOI for jack-up drilling rig
10:23 RightShip to acquire  Thynk Software’s maritime tech business

2022 August 5

18:27 Carnival Corporation upgrades global fleet with fuel- and energy-saving technology
18:07 Yilport breaks all-time container handling record in H1 2022
17:50 IAA PortNews’ summary of past week news
17:23 UK authorities give green light to the sharing agreement between P&O Ferries and DFDS
17:06 Montagu acquires Lloyd’s List from Informa
16:57 A. P. Moller - Maersk to acquire Danish company Martin Bencher Group
16:37 Three more ships receive the green light to leave Ukraine’s Black Sea ports on Friday
16:29 Throughput of port Kavkaz in 7M’2022 fell by 22% Y-o-Y to 12.5 million tonnes
16:13 Russia to spend $30 billion on Northern Sea Route by 2035 - Reuters
15:24 Yang Ming names new 11,000 TEU vessel, ‘YM Throne’
15:06 Shipping faces investment obstacles in low-carbon marine fuels - S&P Global
14:44 NSR development plan foresees completion of sea terminal for Pavlovskoye deposit development in 2025-2026
14:02 Kawasaki receives an order for an 86,700 m³ LPG-fueled LPG/ NH3 carrier
13:31 Two new ferries started delivering cargo from the port of Temryuk to the Turkish port of Samsun
13:12 Wilhelmsen joins industry partners to launch innovation competition to drive Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
12:53 Kawasaki receives order for steam turbine generator from Taiwan
12:20 Tokyo MoU and Paris MoU launch joint concentrated inspection campaign ON STCW
12:06 Russia orders to set up new operator of Sakhalin-2 LNG project in three days - S&P Global
11:42 Railway link with Lugaport terminal opens in the port of Ust-Luga
11:20 Kalmar received order from Yilport for a total of 27 new mobile equipment
11:08 Austal Australia delivers 2nd Evolved Cape-class Patrol Boat to the Royal Australian Navy
10:27 WTI futures show fluctuations below $89 per barrel
10:06 Sinopec Fuel Oil remains China's top bunker supplier - S&P Global
09:45 Draft law on NSR passage regulations for foreign warships submitted to RF State Duma
09:28 ICTSI net income up 50% to US$294.5mln in H1 2022
09:07 CargoWise and ZIM connect to improve customer experience
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08:18 ABS publishes industry leading metadata best practices to support marine and offshore operations
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2022 August 4

18:30 Naval Architect selected for UC San Diego’s new California coastal hybrid-hydrogen research vessel
18:04 International Chamber of Commerce calls for cautious optimism as markets begin to stabilise