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  • 2022 May 27 17:16

    Russian crude exports remain high - Vortexa

    In contrast to widespread assumptions and news pieces, Russian crude oil exports remain very high, according to Vortexa.

    Curtailments to domestic use, as struggling product exports limit refining operations, have been a crucial supporting factor for crude exports. Meanwhile, sanctions are unlikely to hinder Russian players from exporting oil over the coming months more than they already do. Accordingly, further production losses appear to be off the table for now.

    In the first 24 days of May, Russian seaborne crude and condensate exports have averaged 3.6mbd. This is slightly down by 170kbd from April, but nearly 0.4mbd higher than the Q1 2022 average. If sustained for the full month, exports would be back to the pre-Covid 2019 of 3.6mbd. Exports in 2020 and 2021 have averaged slightly below 3mbd.

    The increase in exports is clearly due to higher flows towards European waters via the Baltic and Black Sea. Seaborne exports via these two routes increased from below 1.8mbd in Q1 2022 to above 2.3mbd in April and May.

    While Russia faced only temporary difficulties to move all crude onto international waters, the story is different for refined products. Especially fuel oil and naphtha, of minor global relevance when compared to crude oil and diesel, faced major reductions. Refined product exports to the Baltic and Black Sea regions averaged 2mbd over April and the first 24 days of May. This is down by 0.7mbd compared to the unusually high levels on average over January and February 2020. But it is also 0.4mbd lower than the average of 2021.

    The inability to export fuel oil and naphtha forced Russian refineries to curtail throughput, freeing up crude for export markets. As naphtha and fuel oil are only a part of a refinery’s output, the impact can be bigger than the respective lost export volumes. Local demand declines also help to explain higher crude exports. Nevertheless, current export levels do not correspond well with crude output cuts of 1mbd, let alone of up to 3mbd as forecast by the IEA.

    Russia’s operation in Ukraine caused a drastic change in the ultimate discharge locations of Russian crude oil that is exported towards European waters via the Arctic, Baltic and Black Sea regions. While 95% of cargoes leaving these outlets in Q4 2021 stayed in Europe, only 57% of barrels exported over April/May still found a home in Europe. About 1mbd is targeting markets East of Suez, mostly in India and China.

    Not all vessels moving towards the Med or East of Suez have already final buyers, with a few cargoes also on floating storage. Higher exports, the much longer trips to Asia, and delayed shipments lift the amount of crude on the water from the European side of Russia to spike from about 21mb in early 2022 to 67mb more recently.

    But also within Europe there is a sharp shift of buyers, with Northwest European buyers (Baltic and UK Cont) recently taking less than 0.4kbd, down from peaks above 1.4mbd in late 2021 and early 2022. In exchange, volumes to the Mediterranean (incl. Black Sea and Turkey) increased from 0.6mbd over Q4 2021/Q1 2022 to 1.1mbd more recently.

    This illustrates that the self-sanctioning schemes are limited to certain players, and European politicians appear somewhere between unable or unwilling to provide a strong guidance any time soon. Even if the discussed sanctions are decided on, it will not hinder imports of Russian oil for the next six months or so. Accordingly, it is reasonable to assume that Russian oil supplies will stay in the market for the coming months at similar levels than currently.

    This appears to be also increasingly reflected in pricing, such as easing diesel cracks and refining margins. Meanwhile, the recent upside trend in crude prices reflects to quite some extent non-Russian factors, such as the inability of all other OPEC+ countries to raise supplies and demand picking up seasonally and from China where Covid restrictions are set to ease.

2022 July 1

16:44 R-FLOT lays down two small cruise ships
16:23 Austal USA awarded up to US$3.3 bn contract for 11 USCG offshore patrol cutters
16:07 Freeport LNG says it may resume partial liquefication operations in early Oct 2022
15:47 TotalEnergies Marine Fuels and MOL Group complete first biofuel bunker operation of a vehicle carrier in Singapore
15:28 State Duma approves bill on increasing fines for violation of coal handling regulations
15:10 DEME Group lists on Euronext Brussels
14:49 CPC Marine Terminal operates two of its three Single Point Moorings
14:27 CPC Terminal paid over RUB 5.28 billion for recovery of damage caused by oil spill
14:27 PM Fumio Kishida says Sakhalin 2’s new operator will not cause an immediate halt in LNG shipments to Japan
14:05 Spartacus nominated for KNVTS Ship of the Year
13:42 2 MOL-operated vessels earn 2021 'Best Quality Ship Awards'
13:20 Port of Houston container activity rises 20% in May 2022
13:03 Petersburg Oil Terminal confirms its ISO compliance
12:44 Monthly LNG imports from USA to EU in June for the first time exceeded gas supplied via pipeline from Russia – IEA
12:40 Solstad Offshore announces contract awards for two CSVs
12:25 Russian Railways' network loading fell by 2.8% in HI’2022
12:10 Maersk Tankers launches a new digital solution to track and report vessel emissions
12:00 Hiab launches next generation LOGLIFT forestry cranes
11:42 RF Government to establish new operator of Sakhalin Energy
11:30 Port of Rotterdam Authority abandons Normal Amsterdam Water Level after 200 years
11:18 Prelude FLNG cancels cargo deliveries amid union strike - Natural Gas Intelligence
11:01 INPEX, IHI, MOL demonstrate clean ammonia supply chain linking UAE and Japan
10:33 Maersk to reduce transit times by 5 -21 days from Asia to Northern Italy
10:21 Rosatom issued first five permits for navigation in NSR waters within summer-autumn season of 2022
10:15 The Twin-Port V project of the ports of Helsinki and Tallinn receives a total of EUR 6.8 million in EU funding
10:09 GTT signs a major contract for its "smart shipping" solution with an important player in liquefied gas shipping
09:52 Ports of Stockholm and CMB.TECH join forces in a hydrogen collaboration at Stockholm Norvik Port
09:16 Crude oil futures decrease in response to OPEC+ decisions
09:05 MABUX: Firm downward trend to continue in Global bunker market on July 01
08:32 Boskalis and Keppel sell their harbor towage activities in Singapore and Malaysia to Rimorchiatori Mediterranei
08:07 CMA CGM and ENGIE set to co-invest in the Salamander project, to produce second-generation biomethane
07:51 Industry-leading digital services rolled out at APM Terminals Valencia

2022 June 30

18:41 Ocean Yield agrees to purchase two 36,000 cbm liquified ethylene gas carrier newbuildings
18:12 Aker Solutions wins 5-year partnership agreement with Vår Energi
18:07 The icebreaking season 2021–2022 was exceptionally long - Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency
17:47 The Signal Group launches a tech enabled bunker procurement company
17:34 2,8 million euro worth of EU funding to the Port of Tallinn
17:02 The Suez Canal Economic Zone hosts a round table discussion in coordination with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
16:47 Rosmorrechflot estimated excess of Caspian Basin seaports’ capacity at 12 million tonnes per year
16:35 Second Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Company trailing suction hopper dredge to be built to ABS Class at Conrad Shipyard
15:30 RF Government to subsidize banks’ interest rates on loans provided for construction of new transport and logistics centers
15:02 Schedule reliability remains between 30% and 40% - Sea-Intelligence
14:44 Khabarovsk Shipyard lays down non-self-propelled dredger of Project 4395
14:23 Ocean Yield AS announces delivery of newbuilding Suezmax tanker with 10-year charter
13:49 MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 26, 2022
13:32 Shipping companies and Customs authorities come together to step up the fight against narcotics trafficking
13:02 NYK becomes signatory to UN’s Sustainable Ocean Principles
12:42 DP World and NIIF announce broadening of partnership in India
12:12 MacGregor signs a five-year service agreement with Color Line
11:52 TGE Marine announces contract for two CO2 carriers
11:35 Shell to sign deal with Qatar for large LNG project - Bloomberg
11:17 Throughput of Russian seaports in H1’22 is flat, y-o-y, at 412.1 million tonnes
11:13 Shell and CMA CGM sign LNG fuel supply agreement in Singapore
10:38 G7 reaffirms the commitment to phase out the dependency on Russian energy
10:34 Northern Shipping Company’s MV Kholmogory delivered first batch of cargo to Kaliningrad
09:59 RF Ministry of Industry and Trade to develop mechanisms to support modernization of shipbuilding facilities by private companies
09:35 UNCTAD issues report about effects of the military operation in Ukraine on maritime trade logistics
09:16 Crude oil futures rise amid heightening geopolitical tension
08:58 MABUX: Slight downward correction in Global bunker market on June 30

2022 June 29

18:37 StormGeo partners with DNV to offer anti-roll assistance and seakeeping services