• 2018 September 13 14:49

    MABUX: Bunker prices may continue upward trend next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World oil indexes changed irregular in the beginning of the week but then turned into upward trend on concerns about outages in Iran and turmoil in Libya and Iraq, although that bullish sentiment was offset by ongoing concerns about emerging markets. Also, a boost for prices is Hurricane Florence—a Category 4 hurricane that is expected to hit the U.S. this week.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), demonstrated irregular changes in the period of Sep.06 - Sep.13:
        
    380 HSFO - up from 439.00 to 448.79 USD/MT     (+9.79)
    180 HSFO - up from 487.14 to 494.86 USD/MT     (+7.72)
    MGO         - down from 710.57 to 709.43 USD/MT (-1.14)

    Barclays revised up its medium-term oil price forecast for 2020 from $55 to $75 per barrel, and for 2025 from $70 to $80. The investment bank noted several major changes since last year’s forecast, including ongoing capital discipline in the oil industry, cohesive market management from OPEC+, more aggressive sanctions from the U.S., and the catastrophic production de-clines in several OPEC countries.

    Hurricane Florence, which is moving towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, helped push fuel prices higher. Unlike the 2017 hurricane season that caused serious production outages in the Gulf of Mexico and at Gulf Coast refineries, this year’s hurricanes are thought to be fewer and weaker. But still, any hurricane approaching the U.S. coast will affect prices in the current volatile state of the market, with demand concerns adding to the already high geopolitical risk premium.

    The Trump administration is potentially moving forward on some $200 billion in tariffs. That would surely spark a response from China, and the back-and-forth retaliatory trade attacks could decelerate global growth. Also, China, specifically, is a major consumer of oil and one of the largest sources of demand growth, so a slowdown there could also undercut oil/fuel demand forecasts.

    OPEC and its non-OPEC partners hope to formalize a cooperative agreement at the next meeting in December. The move would be a way of institutionalizing the ongoing production cut agreement that began in early 2017, and provide a framework for indefinite cooperation.

    Iran’s oil exports are falling much faster than most forecasts had predicted. Banks are backing away from involvement in the trade of Iranian oil, and shippers are having trouble finding insurance for cargoes. European refiners, despite political support for Tehran in Brussels, have al-ready moved to sharply cut purchases of Iranian crude. Various estimates point to a loss of 500,000 bpd or even more than 1 million bpd. According to ship tracking data, Iranian oil and condensate exports fell below 2.1 million bpd in August—the lowest levels since March 2016, with crude oil exports at their lowest since January this year.

    Meantime, China imported Iranian crude at an average daily rate of 874,000 barrels last month. China has said it will continue to do business as usual with Iran, including in oil, despite a promise that Beijing officials made to a U.S. delegation last month that Chinese refiners will not increase their intake of Iranian crude further. As for how Chinese refiners would continue buying crude from Iran without attracting sanctions from the Department of Treasury, one way would be by using tankers owned and insured by the National Iranian Oil Company. Another, less public way would be to accept illegal shipments that Iran has suggested it could resort to under sanctions.

    Last week, rioters burned down several buildings in Basra, a major city in Southern Iraq and home to most of the country’s oil production.  Despite its oil riches, southern Iraq remains deeply unequal, which has caused resentment among the population even as international companies continue to ramp up production.  The violence adds Iraq to the growing list of unstable OPEC countries that has rattled the oil market.

    In another troubling development, several gunmen attacked the headquarters of Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) in Tripoli on Sep.10 and rockets were fired at the only functioning air-port in the Libyan capital of Tripoli on Sep.12.The renewed violence threatens once again Libya’s oil industry that has just been recovering from the attack on oil ports in June and a subsequent port blockade that reduced significantly Libyan oil shipments in June and July. As of the end of August, Libya’s oil production held at around 1 million bpd for several weeks.

    Currently, U.S. shale growth is one of the most overlooked supply-side factors, that will likely offset many of the losses from production problems elsewhere in the short term. As per IEA, U.S. tight oil production is forecast to grow by a record 1.3 million bpd to over 5.7 million bpd, due to increased investment in 2017 and 2018. OPEC in turn expects U.S. tight oil production to grow by 1.22 million bpd on a yearly basis, to average 5.91 million bpd in 2018, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The big question is for how long U.S. tight oil growth can offset declining production in other parts of the world.

    Goldman Sachs expects scrubbed high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) consumption to be a total of 1.0 million barrels per day by 2020 and 1.4 million bpd by 2025. According to the investment banking company, the global shipping industry burned a total of 3.3 million barrels per day of high-sulphur marine fuels in 2017. Scrubber orders from high-profile shipping companies in recent months has seen forecasters adjust initial outlook revisions. As per Bank, at an 80% compliance rate it is expected that the market can reach equilibrium at a distillate-HSFO spread near current forwards.

    We expect bunker prices will turn into upward evolution next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2024 March 29

15:10 MOL announces restructuring measures
14:45 Drewry predicts impact on container calls at US East Coast ports after the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge
14:25 Chevron’s first hybrid electric fueling barge arrives in Singapore
13:40 HD KSOE and Infineon sign MoU to develop ship electrification technology
13:29 NYK and JMU formulate method for evaluating ship performance in actual seas
12:59 HD Hyundai wins US$463 mln warship order in Peru
12:09 COSCO SHIPPING Ports throughput up by 4.4% YoY to 135,808,554 TEU in 2023
11:46 The "Ane Maersk" calls at the Eurogate container terminal in Hamburg for the first time on its maiden voyage from Asia to Europe
11:20 Sallaum Lines and Fujian Mawei Shipbuilding commence construction of Ocean Class vessels
10:43 Oasis Marine develops solutions for offshore hydrogen bunkering
10:03 Petrofac secures contract extension with ONEgas West in the UK market

2024 March 28

18:05 Jan De Nul, ENGIE and Equans launch a pilot project centred around the use of Vanadium Redox Flow batteries
17:35 Latvian port equipment manufacturer Bleste introduces new bulk handling ‘bucket’
17:05 Investors upgrade Navios Maritime Partners
16:25 DEME reports 22% increase in the orderbook and a record-high turnover of 3.3 billion euros in 2023
16:14 MABUX: Bunker Outlook, Week 13, 2024
15:41 AD Ports Group announced the opening of Saadiyat Marina & Ferry Terminal and Rabdan Marina
15:11 Sydney invests $11.5 million in two new operational vessels designed by Incat Crowther
14:55 China’s Jinzhao wins Peru $405m port construction contract
14:13 APM Terminals Moín handled six million TEU
13:48 ClassNK grants Innovation Endorsements for Products & Solutions to two innovative initiatives by MOL
13:37 Konecranes launches its flagship Konecranes X-series industrial crane
12:53 United European Car Carriers UECC spearheads collaboration with industry leaders to advance CNSL as a sustainable marine fuel
12:26 Ocean Network Express announces Transpacific service
11:48 Yang Ming announces 2025 Trans-Pacific service network
11:24 Fincantieri signs contract for the supply of two PPAs to Indonesia
10:42 Maersk transported more than 660,000 TEU using clean fuel in 2023
10:23 Documentation delays push industry costs to $3bn
09:48 PONANT and FARWIND Energy partner to develop green hydrogen refueling solutions

2024 March 27

18:22 Bureau Veritas awards world’s first prototype certification for SolarDuck’s floating offshore solar solution
17:58 The recently converted Allseas's shallow water pipelay barge starts preparations for its first commercial project
17:38 The Port of Rotterdam calls on the European Commission and Parliament to focus on actively promoting green energy
15:23 SEFE to become sole shareholder of WIGA
14:53 Ocean Installer secures yet another SLM contract with Equinor
14:23 Cadeler signs offshore wind turbine installation contract for the vessel Wind Scylla
13:42 Carnival Cruise Line orders 5th Excel-class cruise ship
13:11 Maersk and MSC overcharging cargo owners for EU ETS, says T&E
12:52 The Port Authority of Valencia launches the ZAL project in the Port of Valencia
12:11 Clarkson Port Services and Peak Group collaborate to deliver Port Agency services across the North Sea
11:42 Wan Hai Lines holds ship naming ceremony for new vessels
11:24 Consolidated shipping lines EBIT loss was $1.44 billion in Q4 2023: Sea-Intelligence
10:49 Seaspan Shipyards receives long-term contracts for the pre-construction work of the the Canadian Coast Guard's first six multi-mission vessels
10:14 Woodside completes sale of 10% scarborough interest

2024 March 26

18:02 COSCO Shipping Lines introduces new Americas service
17:30 Davie awarded first contract for design of icebreaker fleet under Canada’s National Shipbuilding Strategy
17:04 Sanctions complicate Arctic LNG ship sales, Hanwha Ocean says - Bloomberg
16:57 Terntank places an order for 1+1 additional wind/ methanol-ready hybrid tanker
16:28 BW LNG completes acquisition of two TFDE vessels from Stena Bulk
15:50 Hanwha Ocean develops VR-based special vehicle simulator
15:20 TotalEnergies and SINOPEC join forces to produce sustainable jet fuel at a SINOPEC's refinery
14:52 Wärtsilä Lifecycle Agreement to guarantee operational reliability of new wind farm installation vessel
14:23 Hudong-Zhonghua launches two LNG carriers
13:51 Cargo ship hits Baltimore’s Key Bridge
13:12 Final sanctioned tanker with Russian Sokol oil to reach China port - Reuters
12:42 Adani Ports acquires 95% of Odisha's Gopalpur Port from SP Group for $162 million
12:21 IHI and Yara Clean Ammonia agree to jointly assess clean ammonia business collaboration
11:41 Yara Clean Ammonia and Azane granted safety permit to build world's first low emission ammonia bunkering terminal
11:16 Wartsila and Royal Caribbean Group celebrate 15 years of collaboration on digital transformation
10:46 A global carbon tax on shipping is coming, says ABS Chairman and CEO
10:21 Eni, Fincantieri and RINA establish partnership for maritime transport decarbonization

2024 March 25

18:07 The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore continues to investigate reports of oil spills off the port of Tuas
17:31 “K” Line, NIPPON HAKUYO and OPT Gate sign an agreement for a new fire detection system for car carriers
17:07 Greek merchant fleet recorded slight decline in January 2024
16:47 Hanwha Ocean Plans to develop green technology and naval ships
16:25 U-Ming Singapore and ITOCHU sign milestone MoU for the joint development of ammonia dual-fuel and de-carbonized vessels
15:34 Svitzer targets methanol-fuelled MAN 175DF-M engine for tug application
15:04 Wallenius Wilhelmsen signs contracts for four 9,300 CEU vessels with China Merchants Jinling Shipyard
14:40 Taiwan International Port to upgrade terminal facility at Kaohsiung
13:59 Сruise ship Carnival Freedom catches fire near Bahamas
12:59 Hanwha Ocean wins 2.4 tln-won order for 8 LNG ships