• 2017 November 9 16:42

    MABUX: Bunker prices rally may slow down next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange  

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) sharply increased in the period of Nov. 02 - Nov. 9:

    380 HSFO      - up from 349.79 to 363.86 USD/MT (+14.07)

    180 HSFO      - up from 388.21 to 406.57 USD/MT (+18.36)

    MGO  -up from 569.57 to 588.43 USD/MT (+18.86)

    Prices have been supported this week by expectations that oil producing countries will agree to extend an output cut and by potential supply disruptions following a number of corruption arrests that targeted royal family members and ministers in Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, there were some negative factors, that were declared in the latest OPEC and U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) reports.

    Prices were boosted by expectations that OPEC is likely to keep its 1.2 million barrels per day of production reductions in place through the end of 2018. Another 600,000 bpd of output has been cut by Russia and nine other nations to boost the effects of the OPEC agreement. Both the Saudis and Russians have signaled that they are willing to extend the pact beyond March 2018. Discussions are continuing in the run-up to the November, 30 meeting, which oil ministers from OPEC and the participating non-OPEC countries will attend. There are Libya and Nigeria, the exempted members of the cartel, which have since January brought on an additional 694,000 bpd to global supply. While Nigeria has signaled a willingness to cap its output at 1.8 million bpd, its current level, there is no guarantee it will go ahead with the cap now that Brent is over $60.

    At the same time OPEC in its 2017 World Oil Outlook said that world oil demand to reach a plateau in the second half of the 2030’s caused by a rapid adoption of electric vehicles. Moreover, the demand for its crude would rise in the next two years more slowly than previously expected as a recovery in prices due to OPEC's return to supply management stimulates output growth outside the group. A rise in prices in 2017, plus sustained demand growth, had resulted in a higher forecast for supplies outside OPEC, which includes U.S. shale. North American shale output may rise to 7.5 million barrels a day in 2021, according to OPEC’s report, that is 56% higher than it forecast a year ago. The U.S. EIA in separate report also revised upwards its estimate for domestic crude oil production. U.S. crude oil output will rise by 720,000 bpd to 9.95 million bpd in 2018, it said.

    A wave of arrests of Saudi Arabian princes, businessmen and government ministers made strong support for the fuel market this week. It has been billed as an anticorruption crackdown but is seen by some as a consolidation of power by Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Saudi Arabia is among the world’s top producers of oil and OPEC’s most influential member. However, market for now does not see Saudi Arabia changing its policy of boosting crude prices.

    Iraq’s Supreme Federal Court ruled on November,6 that no region or province can secede, strengthening the government’s hand as it seeks to prevent a repeat of September’s Kurdish independence vote. Iraq’s oil ministry has ordered a stop to all oil exports from Kirkuk’s oil fields to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Oil production in the Kirkuk area continues at the Baba Gurgur, Khabbaz, and Jambour oil fields, but only insofar as to meet demand from local refineries. Meanwhile, Iraq has boosted its oil exports from the southern Basra port by 200,000 bpd to make up for lost exports on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan route. It also increased its total oil export capacity from its southern ports by 900,000 bpd to 4.6 million bpd a few days ago, after adding a new floating terminal. Anyway, the market has already reacted to the situation and its changes would hardly influent the fuel prices.

    The U.S. newest round of sanctions against Russian oil and gas industry targets Russia’s upcoming projects worldwide. A new provision in a preexisting sanction levied by the U.S. Department of Treasury now prohibits companies from assisting in exploration and production activities in deep waters, the Arctic Ocean, or shale projects initiated after January 29, 2018. However, American sanctions on Russia oil and gas companies have had little effect on Moscow’s efforts in securing exploration and production deals so far. Current production stands at 10.92 million bpd, which is close to a 30-year record.

    The number of oil and gas rigs in the United States fell for yet another week, this time dipping 11 rigs - the largest decline in the number of oil rigs this year. The number of oil rigs in the United States decreasing by 8 (to 729) last week. At the same time U.S. exports of crude oil hit a record of over 2.1 million bpd last month and most likely will continue to grow as long as the spread between Brent and WTI remains as wide as it is now, making U.S. crude more attractive than Brent-tied Middle Eastern grades. U.S. production rose to an all-time high of 9.62 million barrels per day this week. Inventories of U.S. crude also rose by roughly 2.2 million barrels for the last week.

    Venezuela is going to seek a restructuring of the country’s debt. There will be a meeting with creditors on November 13 to negotiate the variants. But U.S. sanctions will likely make a deal exceedingly difficult. The country and the state-owned oil company PDVSA owe $1.7 billion before the end of the year and another $9 billion in 2018, a figure that exceeds the country’s total cash reserves. In fact, there is a decent chance of an imminent Venezuelan default.

    China’s October oil imports fell sharply from a near record-high of about 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in September to just 7.3 million bpd in October. That’s their lowest level since October 2016. The reason for that could be less purchases from independent refineries as many of them are running out of crude quotas for this year. For next year, however, independent refiners are likely to boost their imports again as authorities on Nov. 08 raised their 2018 crude oil import quota by 55 percent over 2017, to 2.85 million bpd.

    Despite of the fact that global oil indexes have passed the $60 barrier, there are still some challenges for the further success of OPEC+ production cut deal. The revised outlook in the OPEC’s report illustrates dilemma: with supply curbs also helping its rivals, demand for the cartel’s crude will remain little changed until shale oil output peaks after 2025.  Overall, oil markets remain well supported largely due to an ongoing effort lead by the OPEC and Russia to withhold supplies in order to prop up prices. We expect bunker prices will continue slight upward movement next week.

       Product

    380 cSt HSFO

    MGO/MGO LS

     

     

     

    Rotterdam 2017-11-09

    358

    534*

    Rotterdam 2016-11-09

    247

    410

     

     

     

    Gibraltar 2017-11-09

    380

    584*

    Gibraltar 2016-11-09

    262

    450

     

     

     

    Panama Canal 2017-11-09

    360

    590*

    Panama Canal 2016-11-09

    265

    485

     

     

     

    Busan 2017-11-09

    395

    575*

    Busan 2016-11-09

    295

    460

     

     

     

    Fujairah 2017-11-09

    381

    607*

    Fujairah 2016-11-09

    270

    520

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    *  MGO LS

     All prices stated in USD / Mton

    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)

    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)

    Product

    Close Nov. 08 

    Light Crude Oil (WTI)

    $56,81

    Brent Crude Oil

    $63,49




2024 March 28

11:24 Fincantieri signs contract for the supply of two PPAs to Indonesia
10:42 Maersk transported more than 660,000 TEU using clean fuel in 2023
10:23 Documentation delays push industry costs to $3bn
09:48 PONANT and FARWIND Energy partner to develop green hydrogen refueling solutions

2024 March 27

18:22 Bureau Veritas awards world’s first prototype certification for SolarDuck’s floating offshore solar solution
17:58 The recently converted Allseas's shallow water pipelay barge starts preparations for its first commercial project
17:38 The Port of Rotterdam calls on the European Commission and Parliament to focus on actively promoting green energy
15:23 SEFE to become sole shareholder of WIGA
14:53 Ocean Installer secures yet another SLM contract with Equinor
14:23 Cadeler signs offshore wind turbine installation contract for the vessel Wind Scylla
13:42 Carnival Cruise Line orders 5th Excel-class cruise ship
13:11 Maersk and MSC overcharging cargo owners for EU ETS, says T&E
12:52 The Port Authority of Valencia launches the ZAL project in the Port of Valencia
12:11 Clarkson Port Services and Peak Group collaborate to deliver Port Agency services across the North Sea
11:42 Wan Hai Lines holds ship naming ceremony for new vessels
11:24 Consolidated shipping lines EBIT loss was $1.44 billion in Q4 2023: Sea-Intelligence
10:49 Seaspan Shipyards receives long-term contracts for the pre-construction work of the the Canadian Coast Guard's first six multi-mission vessels
10:14 Woodside completes sale of 10% scarborough interest

2024 March 26

18:02 COSCO Shipping Lines introduces new Americas service
17:30 Davie awarded first contract for design of icebreaker fleet under Canada’s National Shipbuilding Strategy
17:04 Sanctions complicate Arctic LNG ship sales, Hanwha Ocean says - Bloomberg
16:57 Terntank places an order for 1+1 additional wind/ methanol-ready hybrid tanker
16:28 BW LNG completes acquisition of two TFDE vessels from Stena Bulk
15:50 Hanwha Ocean develops VR-based special vehicle simulator
15:20 TotalEnergies and SINOPEC join forces to produce sustainable jet fuel at a SINOPEC's refinery
14:52 Wärtsilä Lifecycle Agreement to guarantee operational reliability of new wind farm installation vessel
14:23 Hudong-Zhonghua launches two LNG carriers
13:51 Cargo ship hits Baltimore’s Key Bridge
13:12 Final sanctioned tanker with Russian Sokol oil to reach China port - Reuters
12:42 Adani Ports acquires 95% of Odisha's Gopalpur Port from SP Group for $162 million
12:21 IHI and Yara Clean Ammonia agree to jointly assess clean ammonia business collaboration
11:41 Yara Clean Ammonia and Azane granted safety permit to build world's first low emission ammonia bunkering terminal
11:16 Wartsila and Royal Caribbean Group celebrate 15 years of collaboration on digital transformation
10:46 A global carbon tax on shipping is coming, says ABS Chairman and CEO
10:21 Eni, Fincantieri and RINA establish partnership for maritime transport decarbonization

2024 March 25

18:07 The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore continues to investigate reports of oil spills off the port of Tuas
17:31 “K” Line, NIPPON HAKUYO and OPT Gate sign an agreement for a new fire detection system for car carriers
17:07 Greek merchant fleet recorded slight decline in January 2024
16:47 Hanwha Ocean Plans to develop green technology and naval ships
16:25 U-Ming Singapore and ITOCHU sign milestone MoU for the joint development of ammonia dual-fuel and de-carbonized vessels
15:34 Svitzer targets methanol-fuelled MAN 175DF-M engine for tug application
15:04 Wallenius Wilhelmsen signs contracts for four 9,300 CEU vessels with China Merchants Jinling Shipyard
14:40 Taiwan International Port to upgrade terminal facility at Kaohsiung
13:59 Сruise ship Carnival Freedom catches fire near Bahamas
12:59 Hanwha Ocean wins 2.4 tln-won order for 8 LNG ships
11:16 Inland Ports meet in Paris to talk about the innovation potential of inland ports
10:50 IMO agrees possible outline for maritime “net-zero framework”
10:24 Hapag-Lloyd to continue to avoid the Red Sea route
09:58 QatarEnergy enters time charter agreements with Nakilat for the operation of 25 LNG vessels

2024 March 24

16:18 Inchgreen Marine Park upgraded as part of £11m investment
15:14 A ribbon-cutting ceremony for Solent Rail Terminal Rail was held at the Port of Southampton
14:08 ESNA and Strategic Marine join forces to offer Surface Effect Ship (“SES”) Crew Transfer Vessels (“CTV”) to the market
13:07 First LNG powered vessel calls at HIP
12:49 Inter-array cable installation completed at Neart na Gaoithe offshore wind farm
11:32 Equinor ASA posts net income at USD 11.9 billion in 2023
09:25 Edda Wind announces the sale of Edda Passat

2024 March 23

17:19 Maersk opens new warehouse facility in Tijuana, Mexico for cross-border capabilities
14:01 Bollinger Shipyard marks keel laying ceremony for 10th Navajo-class T-ATS
13:55 MEYER WERFT and Disney Cruise Line celebrate keel laying
12:19 HSL completes repair work on DEME's dredger TSHD Bonny River
10:53 Turkish shipbuilder delivers RAscal 1500 ASD tug to French port

2024 March 22

18:07 Lloyd's Register releases a report on the operational and safety issues of the use of ammonia as a marine fuel
17:17 RINA supports Mongolia's to develop a roadmap for long-term strategy according to Paris Agreement
16:47 MOL Coastal Shipping to start concept study on large coastal ammonia carrier
16:23 MAN 51/60DF engine passes 10 mln operational hours milestone
15:56 TotalEnergies restarts gas production at the Tyra offshore hub after a major redevelopment
13:43 HHLA container throughput decreases year-on-year by 7.5 percent to 5,917 TEU in 2023
13:24 Largest shipping lines saw sharp decline in revenues in 2023
12:54 AD Ports Group acquires majority stake in Tbilisi Dry Port
12:24 ClassNK certifies the world’s first onboard CCS installation on EVERGREEN’s Neopanamax container vessel