• 2016 September 22 14:49

    MABUX: High volatility on bunker market before the meeting in Algiers

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World fuel indexes have not had any firm trend during the week while the main supportive factor on the market was still speculation that OPEC talks in the end of September together with non-OPEC producers could result in a crude output freeze.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) has not demonstrated any directed movement and finally only slightly rose in the period of Sep.15-22:
     
    380 HSFO - up from 237.14 to 242.07 USD/MT (+4,93)
    180 HSFO - up from 279.07 to 284.86 USD/MT (+5,79)
    MGO         - up from 465.50 to 471.64 USD/MT  (+6,14)


    U.S. crude stockpiles fell 6.2 million barrels to 504.6 million in the week ended Sept. 16. Stockpiles remain at the highest seasonal level in more than 20 years. Crude imports rose 3.1 percent to 8.31 million barrels a day last week. Production increased 0.2 percent to 8.51 million barrels a day. Refineries cut operating rates by 0.9 percentage point to 92 percent of capacity, the lowest level since June.

    Due to some weak economic numbers in the U.S. the chances of a rate hike seem to be diminishing in September and Fed will probably push it out to December. Last week economic indicators pointed to uneven growth in the U.S., while sliding oil prices and a selloff in banks also contributing to losses.

    OPEC may turn its planned informal meeting in Algiers next week into a formal session as it seeks ways with other producers to cut crude supplies by 1 million barrels a day to rebalance markets and stabilize prices. As per OPEC’s evaluation, oil needs another six to nine months to stabilize within a range of $50 to $60 a barrel. Cartel must reach an equitable agreement that all its members support, and any accord must also satisfy non-OPEC producers. Meantime, OPEC probably won’t clinch a deal as members stay focused on either boosting output or defending their market share. Iran and Iraq have signaled their resolve to increase output, while group leader Saudi Arabia is maintaining near-record supply. The kingdom denied there was any current need to cap production and is reluctant to constrain output as the resulting boost for prices could revive supplies from U.S. shale drillers. The IEA said before, the surplus in global oil markets will last for longer than previously thought, persisting into late 2017 as demand growth slumps and supply proves resilient.

    In case of a freeze success it would be the group’s first decision to limit output since OPEC adopted a Saudi-led plan in 2014 allowing members to pump more to protect market share from increased production from the U.S. and Russia. OPEC members and Russia failed to agree at a meeting in Doha in April to limit production after Iran declined to attend and Saudi Arabia refused to proceed without all of the OPEC states participating.

    Venezuela is the most active supporter to the possible freeze deal. As per Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, members are close to reaching an agreement. Venezuela’s evaluation is that global production is at 94 million barrels per day, of which market needs to go down 9 million barrels per day to sustain the level of consumption. The statements came the same day as credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's said that a proposed bond swap by PDVSA was a distressed exchange which may destroy effort to seek a financial lifeline.

    Market concerns are growing over the possibility of returning crude supplies from Libya and Nigeria, that are looking to resume some facilities in the coming weeks. Libya’s state oil company lifted curbs on crude sales from the ports of Ras Lanuf, Es Sider and Zueitina, potentially unlocking 300,000 barrels a day of supply. In total the resumption of shipments from the three Libyan ports would allow Libya to double crude output to 600,000 barrels a day within four weeks. As a first step, a tanker Seadelta sailed from Libian port of Ras Lanuf on Sep.21 with 781,000 barrels of crude. Another tanker, the Syra, is going to ship another 600,000 barrels of crude to Italy from Ras Lanuf to Italy soon.

    Nigeria’s output reached 1.75 million barrels a day and will keep rising after government out-reach and a cease-fire with militants allowed some production to restart. It is also expected that Nigerian production should reach 1.8 million barrels a day next month and 2 million by December, when most export terminals resume operations. The nation’s output fell in May to the lowest in 27 years after increasing attacks by militants on oil infrastructure and was at 1.44 million barrels a day in August.

    An increase in shipments from the African countries would negate the influence a production freeze would have on the market. If OPEC members agree to a freeze and some countries are bringing back production the market will come under noticeable pressure again.

    China and India have used low oil prices to shore up their Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). However, as China doesn’t report its storage regularly, the data and the expectations of the experts are skewed. While one forecast (JP Morgan) believes that the Chinese are close to topping up their SPR, another one (Energy Aspects) believes that new commercial storage capacity additions will sustain the increased demand from China. The difference between the two possibilities accounts for a huge difference of 1.1 million barrels a day. Nevertheless, with reports of a likely debt crisis or a hard landing in China, chances are that the oil demand from the world’s second-largest economy will remain flat or see muted growth in 2017.

    We expect high volatility on the global fuel market before the meeting of major oil-producing nations in Algiers on Sep.26-28. Bunker prices may demonstrate irregular fluctuations next week with no firm trend.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)





2024 March 29

12:09 COSCO SHIPPING Ports throughput up by 4.4% YoY to 135,808,554 TEU in 2023
11:46 The "Ane Maersk" calls at the Eurogate container terminal in Hamburg for the first time on its maiden voyage from Asia to Europe
11:20 Sallaum Lines and Fujian Mawei Shipbuilding commence construction of Ocean Class vessels
10:43 Oasis Marine develops solutions for offshore hydrogen bunkering
10:03 Petrofac secures contract extension with ONEgas West in the UK market

2024 March 28

18:05 Jan De Nul, ENGIE and Equans launch a pilot project centred around the use of Vanadium Redox Flow batteries
17:35 Latvian port equipment manufacturer Bleste introduces new bulk handling ‘bucket’
17:05 Investors upgrade Navios Maritime Partners
16:25 DEME reports 22% increase in the orderbook and a record-high turnover of 3.3 billion euros in 2023
16:14 MABUX: Bunker Outlook, Week 13, 2024
15:41 AD Ports Group announced the opening of Saadiyat Marina & Ferry Terminal and Rabdan Marina
15:11 Sydney invests $11.5 million in two new operational vessels designed by Incat Crowther
14:55 China’s Jinzhao wins Peru $405m port construction contract
14:13 APM Terminals Moín handled six million TEU
13:48 ClassNK grants Innovation Endorsements for Products & Solutions to two innovative initiatives by MOL
13:37 Konecranes launches its flagship Konecranes X-series industrial crane
12:53 United European Car Carriers UECC spearheads collaboration with industry leaders to advance CNSL as a sustainable marine fuel
12:26 Ocean Network Express announces Transpacific service
11:48 Yang Ming announces 2025 Trans-Pacific service network
11:24 Fincantieri signs contract for the supply of two PPAs to Indonesia
10:42 Maersk transported more than 660,000 TEU using clean fuel in 2023
10:23 Documentation delays push industry costs to $3bn
09:48 PONANT and FARWIND Energy partner to develop green hydrogen refueling solutions

2024 March 27

18:22 Bureau Veritas awards world’s first prototype certification for SolarDuck’s floating offshore solar solution
17:58 The recently converted Allseas's shallow water pipelay barge starts preparations for its first commercial project
17:38 The Port of Rotterdam calls on the European Commission and Parliament to focus on actively promoting green energy
15:23 SEFE to become sole shareholder of WIGA
14:53 Ocean Installer secures yet another SLM contract with Equinor
14:23 Cadeler signs offshore wind turbine installation contract for the vessel Wind Scylla
13:42 Carnival Cruise Line orders 5th Excel-class cruise ship
13:11 Maersk and MSC overcharging cargo owners for EU ETS, says T&E
12:52 The Port Authority of Valencia launches the ZAL project in the Port of Valencia
12:11 Clarkson Port Services and Peak Group collaborate to deliver Port Agency services across the North Sea
11:42 Wan Hai Lines holds ship naming ceremony for new vessels
11:24 Consolidated shipping lines EBIT loss was $1.44 billion in Q4 2023: Sea-Intelligence
10:49 Seaspan Shipyards receives long-term contracts for the pre-construction work of the the Canadian Coast Guard's first six multi-mission vessels
10:14 Woodside completes sale of 10% scarborough interest

2024 March 26

18:02 COSCO Shipping Lines introduces new Americas service
17:30 Davie awarded first contract for design of icebreaker fleet under Canada’s National Shipbuilding Strategy
17:04 Sanctions complicate Arctic LNG ship sales, Hanwha Ocean says - Bloomberg
16:57 Terntank places an order for 1+1 additional wind/ methanol-ready hybrid tanker
16:28 BW LNG completes acquisition of two TFDE vessels from Stena Bulk
15:50 Hanwha Ocean develops VR-based special vehicle simulator
15:20 TotalEnergies and SINOPEC join forces to produce sustainable jet fuel at a SINOPEC's refinery
14:52 Wärtsilä Lifecycle Agreement to guarantee operational reliability of new wind farm installation vessel
14:23 Hudong-Zhonghua launches two LNG carriers
13:51 Cargo ship hits Baltimore’s Key Bridge
13:12 Final sanctioned tanker with Russian Sokol oil to reach China port - Reuters
12:42 Adani Ports acquires 95% of Odisha's Gopalpur Port from SP Group for $162 million
12:21 IHI and Yara Clean Ammonia agree to jointly assess clean ammonia business collaboration
11:41 Yara Clean Ammonia and Azane granted safety permit to build world's first low emission ammonia bunkering terminal
11:16 Wartsila and Royal Caribbean Group celebrate 15 years of collaboration on digital transformation
10:46 A global carbon tax on shipping is coming, says ABS Chairman and CEO
10:21 Eni, Fincantieri and RINA establish partnership for maritime transport decarbonization

2024 March 25

18:07 The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore continues to investigate reports of oil spills off the port of Tuas
17:31 “K” Line, NIPPON HAKUYO and OPT Gate sign an agreement for a new fire detection system for car carriers
17:07 Greek merchant fleet recorded slight decline in January 2024
16:47 Hanwha Ocean Plans to develop green technology and naval ships
16:25 U-Ming Singapore and ITOCHU sign milestone MoU for the joint development of ammonia dual-fuel and de-carbonized vessels
15:34 Svitzer targets methanol-fuelled MAN 175DF-M engine for tug application
15:04 Wallenius Wilhelmsen signs contracts for four 9,300 CEU vessels with China Merchants Jinling Shipyard
14:40 Taiwan International Port to upgrade terminal facility at Kaohsiung
13:59 Сruise ship Carnival Freedom catches fire near Bahamas
12:59 Hanwha Ocean wins 2.4 tln-won order for 8 LNG ships
11:16 Inland Ports meet in Paris to talk about the innovation potential of inland ports
10:50 IMO agrees possible outline for maritime “net-zero framework”
10:24 Hapag-Lloyd to continue to avoid the Red Sea route
09:58 QatarEnergy enters time charter agreements with Nakilat for the operation of 25 LNG vessels

2024 March 24

16:18 Inchgreen Marine Park upgraded as part of £11m investment
15:14 A ribbon-cutting ceremony for Solent Rail Terminal Rail was held at the Port of Southampton