• 2018 September 20 21:17

    Expert says production declines and geopolitical unrest may push bunker prices up

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have not had any firm trend during the week: fuel markets are trying to make sense out of both supply and demand questions as well as geopolitical uncertainty. OPEC downgraded demand while the IEA said in a report that supply outages are tightening up the oil market.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), demonstrated insignificant and irregular changes in the period of Sep.13 - Sep.20:
        
    380 HSFO – up from 448.79 to 451.57 USD/MT     (+2.78)
    180 HSFO – up from 494.86 to 495.79 USD/MT     (+0.93)
    MGO        – down from 714.14 to 710.29 USD/MT (-3.85)

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the oil market is tightening up. Global supply surpassed 100 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, a new record high. Production even rose from OPEC, despite turmoil seen in several member countries. As per EIA, the main reason for the volatility is the ongoing supply losses from Venezuela, combined with the disruptions in Iran related to U.S. sanctions. Venezuela’s production fell by another 40,000 bpd or so, taking output down to just 1.24 million bpd. It may end the year at 1 million bpd or lower. Meanwhile, buyers are already cutting their purchases of Iranian oil ahead of the November 4 deadline.

    OPEC in turn cut its 2019 oil demand forecast because of economic headwinds. The 1.41 mil-lion bpd demand growth forecast is 20,000 bpd lower than last month’s figure.

    China is going to retaliate against new U.S. trade measures after Trump imposed 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The tariffs are likely to limit economic activity in both China and the United States, potentially hitting growth in demand for oil as less fuel is consumed to move goods for trade.

    U.S. sanctions on Iran are set to go into effect in November, but countries have already been slashing purchases. China however has said that it would not stop buying Iranian oil (although Beijing has agreed not to increase its oil purchases from Iran). Between January and August, Iran was sending on average 660,000 bpd of oil to its biggest oil customer. Total Iranian oil shipments for September slumped to 1.3 million bpd through September 13, compared to just above 2 million bpd in August, when Iranian exports started to fall noticeably. Although the shipment gap is unlikely to signal that China has been purposefully scaling back purchases to comply with U.S. pressure to have Iranian oil sales at zero, it could mean that Chinese refiners were looking for better terms for Iranian oil purchases.

    Iran in turn has started to store oil on tankers in the Persian Gulf. Shipments are set to average as little as 1.5 million barrels a day in September according to the preliminary loading program, compared to around 2.8 million barrels a day of oil exports in April and May. Between 2012 and 2016, Iran stored millions of barrels of oil on supertankers because it could not export enough. That practice is making a comeback.

    The protests and riots in Iraq’s oil-rich southern region are flaring up again, potentially posing a threat to lose upwards of 700,000 to 800,000 barrels of production in the country’s record oil export levels. The lack of spare capacity makes such an outage especially worrying.

    U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry said during his meeting with Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak in Moscow last week that the United States welcomes competition from Russia on the global energy markets, but Russia can no longer use energy as an economic weapon. He also confirmed that the U.S. could impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 and more energy sanctions were being planned. Novak, for his part, said that Russia agrees that energy cannot be a tool to exercise pressure and that consumers should be able to choose the suppliers. Russian minister sees huge uncertainty on the market – how the countries, which buy almost 2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil will act. Russia could step in if the market needs more supply. The country has potential to raise production by 300,000 barrels per day mid-term.

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Sep.11 that the U.S. bypassed Saudi Arabia in February to become the second largest global oil producer. It was the first time in more than 20 years that the U.S. out produced Saudi Arabia. Then in June and August, U.S. output bypassed Russia for the first time since February 1999. The EIA also expects that U.S. crude oil production, most of it light sweet crude, will continue to exceed Russian and Saudi Arabian crude oil production for the remaining months of 2018 and through 2019. U.S. production this year is expected to grow 1.31 million bpd to 10.66 million bpd, and 840,000 bpd to 11.5 million bpd next year.

    The South China Sea has been a source of territorial conflict for years, but the Philippines and China are nearing a deal on joint development of natural gas reserves in the region. If a deal is reached, it would be a major win for Beijing as it seeks to extend its claim on territory in the sea, while also clearing some problems towards gas development.

    The global oil/fuel markets remain fragile because of production declines and geopolitical unrest. We expect bunker prices may continue upward evolution next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2019 February 23

12:24 Brunvoll to deliver propulsion systems to autonomous ship
11:14 Austal begins construction of USS Canberra (LCS 30)

2019 February 22

18:08 Pacific Fleet AS-34 underwater vehicle practises maneuvering in Kola Bay
17:50 Krasnoye Sormovo launches first ship in new RSD59 series of four ships ordered by STLC
17:35 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to the Middle East Gulf
17:05 Bilfinger expands in international maritime scrubber market
16:35 Aker Solutions to develop digital twin for Wintershall’s Nova field
16:12 Chiquita's new container ship pays its first visit to Kloosterboer in North Sea Port
15:31 DOF awarded contracts for three ROV Support Vessels in Brazil
15:12 Biggest wellboat in the world’s hull arrives at Havyard yard in Leirvik
14:55 Zaliv shipyard (Kerch) launched search-and-rescue ship of Project А163
14:12 Tideway completes installation of longest AC offshore wind export cable at Hornsea One in the UK
13:48 32 vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on February 21-22
13:30 GTT creates a Digital Hub of Excellence in Singapore
13:04 The Spectrum of the Seas leaves the MEYER WERFT's dock
12:49 Sea Port of Saint-Petersburg upgrades its cane equipment
12:30 Port of Rotterdam bunker figures down to 9.5 million m3 in 2018
12:03 Algoma announces purchase of additional product tanker
11:30 Van Oord is one of the founding partners and main sponsor of PortXL
11:02 Fincantieri and Abu Dhabi Shipbuilding reach an agreement to cooperate in the UAE shipbuilding segment
10:30 Mitsubishi Shipbuilding holds christening ceremony for next-generation LNG carrier "MARVEL CRANE"
10:20 Port of Yeisk handled 159,000 tonnes of cargo year-to-date
10:00 CMA CGM implements Port Congestion Surcharge from Med and North Europe to Canada East Coast
09:58 The Netherlands ratifies ship recycling convention
09:35 Brent Crude futures price is down 0.24% to $66.91, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.16% to $56.87
09:17 Baltic Dry Index is up to 630 points

2019 February 21

18:33 AML’s MVP200 selected for new Swedish “RV Svea”
18:16 ​Shearwater GeoServices and TGS partner for major Brazil survey
18:03 NYK selected as a White 500 company for third consecutive year
17:55 Rosmorport to dredge 12.1 million cbm of material in 2019
17:34 Boskalis expands market position in marine survey through acquisition Horizon
17:29 GE to supply LM2500 gas turbine auxiliary equipment for Indian Navy’s P17A frigates
17:11 Hydrographic Company to get 15 new vessels by 2024
17:05 Rotterdam port innovation programme PortXL participants announced
17:03 H.H. Sheikh Theyab updated on ADNOC L&S strategy to become a global shipping champion
16:14 SCHOTTEL presents new shallow-water thruster SPJ 30 up to 150 kW
15:35 Forth Ports Group receives planning consent for new terminal at the Port of Tilbury
15:16 Algoma announces the Algoma Conveyor is headed for Canada
14:32 A.P. Moller - Maersk accelerates transformation and grows revenue in 2018
14:11 Teekay Tankers reports fourth quarter and annual 2018 results
13:46 Santos posts it 2018 net profit of $630 million
13:15 Gazprom Neft demonstrates solid growth across all key financial indicators in 2018
13:13 A.P. Moller - Maersk initiates demerger and separate listing of Maersk Drilling
12:49 ESPS Relampago’s crew carried out maritime training exercises with the Seychelles Coastguard
11:57 First meeting of Eastern Partnership LNG Network takes place in Warsaw
11:28 42 vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on February 20-21
11:03 The UK publishes draft UK MRV legislation following Brexit
10:39 Taganrog Sea Commercial Port spent USD 60,500 under its social programme in 2018
10:16 IMO treaties ratified by Guyana
09:54 Allocations of Taganrog Sea Commercial Port for its environmental programme in 2018 totaled USD 96,400
09:31 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.18% to $67.2, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.51% to $57.45
09:15 Baltic Dry Index is down to 622 points

2019 February 20

18:13 Klaipėdos nafta carried out the 10th operation of reloading LNG from a gas carrier to ground storage tanks
17:52 VNIIR-Progress St. Petersburg supplies electrical equipment for Atomflot icebreaker
17:28 Documents on concession model for Taman dry cargo area project to be submitted to RF Govt in March 2019
17:04 Cammell Laird stages ‘float-off’ for new £10m ferry for Red Funnel
16:46 VTMS, AIS and Pilotage Service on the Northern Sea Route to remain under Rosmorport’s control
16:25 NOVATEK eyes arranging LNG bunkering in Sabetta
16:04 Maersk enhances Asia-Europe network to further improve schedule reliability
15:43 Decision made on transfer of FSUE Hydrographic Company to Rosatom Corporation