• 2018 August 16 14:27

    MABUX: Bunker prices may change irregular next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have changed irregular with no firm trend during the week. The price fluctuations were likely caused by early Saudi Arabia reports that it had curbed output instead of increasing it as was expected, increased tensions between Turkey and the United States, and reports of multiple unsold crude oil cargoes around the Atlantic Basin, with producers including Russia and Nigeria cutting oil prices for certain grades.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), demonstrated directed downward trend in the period of Aug.09 - Aug.16:

    380 HSFO - down from 438.21 to 423.93 USD/MT (-14.28)
    180 HSFO - down from 485.21 to 471.50 USD/MT (-13.71)
    MGO         - down from 672.43 to 669.21 USD/MT  (-3.22)


    The IEA reported that higher output from Saudi Arabia and Russia have tamped down concerns about supply. The partial recovery in Libya has also eased the danger to the oil market. The IEA slightly revised up its forecast for demand growth in 2019 to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), up 0.1 million bpd from last month. For this year, however, demand growth slowed in the second and third quarter, after a blistering first quarter. But it could be temporary taking into consideration Iran sanctions set to take effect in November.

    OPEC in turn stated in its monthly report that oil demand growth in 2019 will be lower than originally expected. Global oil demand growth for 2019 was lowered by 20,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd while non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 was revised up by 30,000 bpd to 2.13 million bpd. Meanwhile global oil production in July rose by 680,000 bpd, while total production of OPEC countries rose by 41,000 bpd to 32.32 million bpd despite recent cuts in supply from Saudi Arabia. The boost in production was due to increase in production from Kuwait, Nigeria and the UAE. Saudi Arabia production fell by 200,000 bpd to 10.288 million bpd.

    New U.S. sanctions on Russia will take effect later this month, banning the export of sensitive goods and technologies. Russia depends on imported technology and equipment for much of its oil sector. The sanctions, particularly if Europe follows suit, could be damaging, as it would take time to switch over to Asian suppliers or develop home-grown technology.

    Global trade war continues. U.S. President Donald Trump announced last week that he planned on doubling the steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey. As a result, the lira is down 30 percent over the past week and 50 percent since the end of July. President Tayyip Erdogan said on Aug.13 he expected attacks on Turkey's economy to continue but predicted the lira would return to rational levels soon. Erdogan has described the lira's fall as the consequence of a plot rather than economic fundamentals. Turkey is a minor player in the energy markets aside from acting as a transit country. The direct impact on global demand for oil and fuel is thus negligible. However, if the crisis spread to other, larger countries, demand could be hit considerably.

    The U.S. Administration expects that it will be able to persuade Iran’s oil customers to cut their crude imports from Tehran by as much as 1 million bpd. This reduction would be equal to roughly half of the average Iranian oil exports over the past year, but well below the U.S. target of reducing the Islamic Republic’s oil sales to zero. Nevertheless, 1 million bpd of global oil supply choked off in early November may boost oil and fuel prices.

    Despite having proposed to include American crude oil under its list of tariff targets, China left oil off of its list last week when it imposed $16 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. products. The decision was a reflection of China’s import needs, particularly with supplies from Venezuela in decline and supplies from Iran potentially disrupted. Still, Chinese refiners have begun ratcheting down purchases of American oil and LNG anyway, in anticipation of potential tariffs. The trade fight helped push down oil prices last week, as the oil market grew concerned about the impact on the global economy.

    India has offered to slash its purchases of oil from Iran by half if the U.S. grants it an exemption on the rest. India is Iran’s second largest buyer of oil, and the extent of the outages in Iran will largely come down to decisions made in New Delhi and Beijing.

    The number of working oil rigs in the U.S. rose by 10 to 869 last week, the highest level since March 2015. Producers have recently announced billions of dollars of new investments in the Permian Basin and elsewhere.

    Demand for middle distillates (diesel, marine gasoil, and jet fuel) is expected to surge ahead of an upcoming stricter regulation on the fuels used by the shipping industry. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set January 1, 2020, as the starting date from which only low-sulfur fuel oil (0.5%) will be allowed to be used for ships. The severe restrictions on fuel oil’s sulfur content-aimed at reducing emissions-will drive increased demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil, which in turn will push up demand for crude oil. This may boost crude oil demand by additional 1.5 million bpd, potentially sending oil prices to $90 a barrel in 2020.

    Inventories of middle distillates-one of the most important refinery products-are also closely correlated with oil price trends and with the shape of the oil futures curve, so the pace of distillates demand and their stock levels could be the key determinant for the oil and fuel price changes through the next two years.

    We expect bunker prices could be rather volatile and may demonstrate irregular changes next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 September 26

18:06 Hapag-Lloyd announces GRI for Trans-Pacific trade
17:55 Yury Kostin to head RF Transport Ministry’s Department of State Policy for Maritime and River Transport
17:36 MOL conducts onboard test of new technology with Rolls Royce
17:06 TenneT contracts DNV GL to certify offshore power substations for Hollandse Kust Zuid wind park
16:42 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to Pakistan / India / Sri Lanka
16:30 ZIM to introduce improvements of its cross-Atlantic services
16:29 Knud E. Hansen creates entirely new design for the ocean factory trawler
16:07 Maersk implements new guidelines on dangerous goods stowage
16:02 ONE, Hapag Lloyd, Yang Ming, CMA CGM, COSCO, OOCL to increase service quality with enhanced Mediterranean - U.S. East Coast service
16:01 RS specifies requirements for fishing vessels
15:38 Russian Maritime Register of Shipping improves rules for fishing vessels
15:03 Pasha Hawaii celebrates steel cutting for M/V George III at Keppel AmFELS
14:40 Ground-breaking ceremony held for Wärtsilä built Hamina LNG terminal
14:04 RB-2186 tugboat of Project 16609 built by Pella Shipyard delivered to the customer in the Far East
13:09 CMA CGM announces Rate Restoration Program for services from Asia to the Middle East Gulf
12:32 NIBULON put into operation its first multipurpose T3500 Project tug
12:09 Austal cuts metal on 117m trimaran for Fred. Olsen
11:45 LNG shipped from Yamal LNG project tops five million tons
11:09 International Seaways announces contract to install scrubbers
10:47 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,450 points
10:30 Brent Crude futures price down 0.12% to $81.16, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.19% to $72.14
10:08 IMO will not delay sulphur 2020 limit
09:51 Port of Riga positioned as an attractive destination for world's major cruise companies
09:39 Arctic Environment Ministers' meeting: Exploring common solutions for the Arctic environment
09:20 Bunker prices continue surging at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:08 Hansa Heavy Lift moves fully assembled Liebherr cranes from Ireland to the UK
08:07 Jumbo awarded transportation & installation contract in Sergipe, Brazil
07:34 Total increases its share in the Danish Underground Consortium

2018 September 25

18:37 Colombo Dockyard achieves recognition at the Presidential Export Award
18:10 Tersan Shipyard (Turkey) lays down lead crab catching and processing ship of Project ST184 for Arktikservis
17:56 CMA CGM announces GRR from Asia to South Africa
17:36 The Ocean Cleanup chooses Iridium as provider of satellite communications services
17:20 First RITM-200 reactor intended for nuclear-powered icebreaker Ural left for Baltiysky Zavod shipyard
17:06 ABP opens up Humber International Enterprise Park development plans to public
16:57 Shippers suspect sulphur stitch-up
16:29 Kotug Smit Towage performs naming ceremony for tug Southampton
16:20 Portugal joins WISTA International
15:38 Volga Shipping Company named the best in terms of transport security
15:12 Mr. Birkir Hólm Guðnason hired as CEO of Samskip Iceland
14:11 CMA CGM to review sales policy regarding Low Sulphur IMO 2020 Regulation
13:49 NIBULON successfully completed its passenger transportation season
13:11 North Carolina Ports’ terminals resume full commercial operations following hurricane Florence
12:50 Fuel oil prices are going up in the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
12:31 Havila Kystruten selects Havyard to deliver the ship design and extensive equipment package for four new vessels
12:14 European ports welcome Parliament’s explicit support to remove the tax barriers for shore-side electricity for ships
12:01 Long Beach Commission OKs budget for expanded rail yard
11:43 DHT Holdings announces $50 mln scrubber financing
11:32 Nevsky Shipyard takes part in «Marintec Offshore Russia» exhibition
11:00 GTT receives a new order from Samsung Heavy Industries for the tank design of two new LNG carriers
10:55 NYK announces delivery of new wood-chip carrier for Hokuetsu Corporation
10:24 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,434 points
10:01 Brent Crude futures price up 0.2% to $80.69, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.12% to $72.17
09:38 Yaroslavsky Shipyard lays down oil recovery vessel of Project Р2114 for Transneft
09:15 Audit summary report to be considered by Sub-Committee on Implementation of IMO Instruments

2018 September 24

18:36 DNV GL unveils the complexity of ocean governance in report for the UN Global Compact
18:03 Klaveness Combination Carriers AS announces completion of USD 45.0 million private placement
17:52 Port of Southampton recognised in top 20 under 40 cruise award
17:36 CMA CGM announces GRR from India West Coast to Mozambique
17:03 Metropolitan Plan for Great Newcastle endorses Port of Newcastle vision
16:50 Ust-Luga Container Terminal handles cargo for Nord Stream 2