• 2018 August 16 14:27

    MABUX: Bunker prices may change irregular next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have changed irregular with no firm trend during the week. The price fluctuations were likely caused by early Saudi Arabia reports that it had curbed output instead of increasing it as was expected, increased tensions between Turkey and the United States, and reports of multiple unsold crude oil cargoes around the Atlantic Basin, with producers including Russia and Nigeria cutting oil prices for certain grades.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), demonstrated directed downward trend in the period of Aug.09 - Aug.16:

    380 HSFO - down from 438.21 to 423.93 USD/MT (-14.28)
    180 HSFO - down from 485.21 to 471.50 USD/MT (-13.71)
    MGO         - down from 672.43 to 669.21 USD/MT  (-3.22)


    The IEA reported that higher output from Saudi Arabia and Russia have tamped down concerns about supply. The partial recovery in Libya has also eased the danger to the oil market. The IEA slightly revised up its forecast for demand growth in 2019 to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), up 0.1 million bpd from last month. For this year, however, demand growth slowed in the second and third quarter, after a blistering first quarter. But it could be temporary taking into consideration Iran sanctions set to take effect in November.

    OPEC in turn stated in its monthly report that oil demand growth in 2019 will be lower than originally expected. Global oil demand growth for 2019 was lowered by 20,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd while non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 was revised up by 30,000 bpd to 2.13 million bpd. Meanwhile global oil production in July rose by 680,000 bpd, while total production of OPEC countries rose by 41,000 bpd to 32.32 million bpd despite recent cuts in supply from Saudi Arabia. The boost in production was due to increase in production from Kuwait, Nigeria and the UAE. Saudi Arabia production fell by 200,000 bpd to 10.288 million bpd.

    New U.S. sanctions on Russia will take effect later this month, banning the export of sensitive goods and technologies. Russia depends on imported technology and equipment for much of its oil sector. The sanctions, particularly if Europe follows suit, could be damaging, as it would take time to switch over to Asian suppliers or develop home-grown technology.

    Global trade war continues. U.S. President Donald Trump announced last week that he planned on doubling the steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey. As a result, the lira is down 30 percent over the past week and 50 percent since the end of July. President Tayyip Erdogan said on Aug.13 he expected attacks on Turkey's economy to continue but predicted the lira would return to rational levels soon. Erdogan has described the lira's fall as the consequence of a plot rather than economic fundamentals. Turkey is a minor player in the energy markets aside from acting as a transit country. The direct impact on global demand for oil and fuel is thus negligible. However, if the crisis spread to other, larger countries, demand could be hit considerably.

    The U.S. Administration expects that it will be able to persuade Iran’s oil customers to cut their crude imports from Tehran by as much as 1 million bpd. This reduction would be equal to roughly half of the average Iranian oil exports over the past year, but well below the U.S. target of reducing the Islamic Republic’s oil sales to zero. Nevertheless, 1 million bpd of global oil supply choked off in early November may boost oil and fuel prices.

    Despite having proposed to include American crude oil under its list of tariff targets, China left oil off of its list last week when it imposed $16 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. products. The decision was a reflection of China’s import needs, particularly with supplies from Venezuela in decline and supplies from Iran potentially disrupted. Still, Chinese refiners have begun ratcheting down purchases of American oil and LNG anyway, in anticipation of potential tariffs. The trade fight helped push down oil prices last week, as the oil market grew concerned about the impact on the global economy.

    India has offered to slash its purchases of oil from Iran by half if the U.S. grants it an exemption on the rest. India is Iran’s second largest buyer of oil, and the extent of the outages in Iran will largely come down to decisions made in New Delhi and Beijing.

    The number of working oil rigs in the U.S. rose by 10 to 869 last week, the highest level since March 2015. Producers have recently announced billions of dollars of new investments in the Permian Basin and elsewhere.

    Demand for middle distillates (diesel, marine gasoil, and jet fuel) is expected to surge ahead of an upcoming stricter regulation on the fuels used by the shipping industry. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set January 1, 2020, as the starting date from which only low-sulfur fuel oil (0.5%) will be allowed to be used for ships. The severe restrictions on fuel oil’s sulfur content-aimed at reducing emissions-will drive increased demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil, which in turn will push up demand for crude oil. This may boost crude oil demand by additional 1.5 million bpd, potentially sending oil prices to $90 a barrel in 2020.

    Inventories of middle distillates-one of the most important refinery products-are also closely correlated with oil price trends and with the shape of the oil futures curve, so the pace of distillates demand and their stock levels could be the key determinant for the oil and fuel price changes through the next two years.

    We expect bunker prices could be rather volatile and may demonstrate irregular changes next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 November 16

15:29 Port of St. Petersburg handled 49.14 million tonnes in 10M’18, up 12% Y-o-Y
15:10 ZIM announces Q3 2018 results
14:45 Jan De Nul supports the 6th Forum of Dredging Companies as its Sponsor
14:24 Decision on construction of 4th and 5th nuclear-powered icebreakers expected before year end
14:10 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v Thetis with Hudson
13:32 Entry fee for vessels to be changed at the Port of Ventspils in 2019
13:10 Global Ship Lease completes strategic combination with Poseidon Containers
12:55 Ship inspection to keep high standards
12:31 GoodBulk announces delivery of Supramax vessel to its new owners
12:04 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from ISC to North Europe and the Mediterranean
11:30 GTT receives an order from HHI to design the tanks of two new LNG carriers
11:25 Multipurpose Reloading Complex (Ust-Luga) boosts allocations for its development programme
11:04 ForSea completes conversion of the world’s largest battery ferries, powered by ABB
10:44 Wärtsilä, LUT University and Nebraska Public Power District to develop business case for alternative fuels
10:41 Nor-Shipping looks to achieve industry first with ISO sustainable event standard
10:20 Brent Crude futures price up 0.84% to $67.17, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.74% to $56.88
10:02 Portmaster improves efficiency in the Port of Scheveningen
09:57 High level experts to present at Maritime Reconnaissance and Surveillance Technology conference
09:35 Container throughput of port Hong Kong (China) down 5.4% to 16.3 million TEUs in Jan-Oct’18
09:16 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,020 points

2018 November 15

18:03 Costa Smeralda to call on Cruiseport Rotterdam
17:54 Polish LNG Conference 2018 concludes in Warsaw
17:25 Port of Singapore throughput in 10M’18 grew by 0.7% Y-o-Y to 523.73 million tonnes
17:03 Maersk Line announces rates from Mediterranean to West and Central Asia
16:52 Expert says downward trend in bunker prices may continue next week
16:30 Nevsky Shipyard launched dry cargo vessel of Project RSD59 «Pola Anfisa»
16:19 "K" Line takes delivery of coal carrier “SHONAI MARU” for JERA Trading
16:04 ICTSI names new APAC head
15:22 Meyer Turku starts construction of Carnival XL1
15:03 Port of Antwerp signs an agreement with Enabel
14:34 Throughput of Ukraine’s seaports in 10M’18 declined by 0.7% Y-o-Y to 108 million tonnes
14:03 Pavilion Energy and Novatek agree to strengthen their LNG partnership
14:00 Damen hands over four FCS 2610 vessels to Allianz during ADIPEC
13:36 ABS awards industry’s first offshore facility cyber security-ready notation to Sembcorp Marine
13:23 NOVATEK’s Board of Directors to be elected on 18 January 2019
13:00 Zvezda shipyard started serial manufacturing of Aframax-class tankers
12:39 Residents of Riga and the Port outline a common vision for the future
12:04 Singapore hosts 10th APEC Port Services Network (APSN) Port Connectivity Forum
11:48 Bunker prices are still high in the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
11:22 Sea Port of Saint-Petersburg’s allocations for its development programme totaled RUB 413.5 million in 9M’2018
11:03 NYK promotes decarbonization through exploratory design of NYK Super Eco Ship 2050
10:51 ABS and HHI pioneer Cyber Security standard for new vessels
10:25 Brent Crude futures price down 0.18% to $66, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.36% to $56.05
10:11 OOCL introduces new Asia – South Africa direct services
09:58 A.P. Moller – Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag - Lloyd, MSC and Ocean Network Express plan to establish container shipping association
09:38 ASW Severomorsk of RF Navy's Northern Fleet completed a call to the Republic of Djibouti
09:16 Baltic Dry Index is down to 1,009 points

2018 November 14

18:37 Savannah achieves all-time record in October 2018
18:20 Sovcomflot concludes USD 149 million project credit facility with leading European banks
18:06 NYK and YLK jointly hold training program for staff from around the world
17:57 Organizers of “Dangerous cargoes: new transportation requirements” conference determined subjects to be discussed
17:36 Northwest Seaport Alliance adopts budget for 2019
17:07 DEME’s cutter suction dredger ‘Spartacus’ launched at the Royal IHC shipyard
17:06 Port of Rotterdam Authority wins 2018 ESPO Award
16:40 NIBULON’s fleet masters transportation of bulky cargo
16:38 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v Maia with Glencore
16:18 A.P. Moller - Maersk reports Q3 2018 results
15:48 1.348 million cbm to be dredged in Azov-Don River Basin this year
15:20 Stolt-Nielsen, Golar LNG and Höegh LNG announce joint $182 mln investment in Avenir LNG
14:56 World's most eco-friendly bulk carriers Viikki & Haaga operate in Baltic Sea