• 2018 August 2 19:30

    MABUX says bunker prices may turn into a phase of irregular changes next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    It was mostly a quiet week for world oil indexes. Geopolitical tensions threatened both Iranian and Saudi Arabian oil, but a rising rig count and U.S crude inventories had erased those gains. The global crude oil supply picture indicates that the market is going to tighten further, while oil demand is still holding up pretty strong.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), turned into slight downward trend in the period of Jul.26 - Aug.02:
        
    380 HSFO - down from 444.86 to 440,71 USD/MT (-4.15)
    180 HSFO - down from 491.79 to 487,43 USD/MT (-4.36)
    MGO        - down from 674.14 to 668.00 USD/MT (-6.14)


    Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that the downside risks to oil prices are relatively limited, suggesting that the oil market could see a supply deficit of around 400,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2018. Inventories may not be falling quickly anymore, but they aren’t rising all that much either. EIA crude stocks are now at their lowest level in more than three years, while for the OECD as a whole, they are right around the five-year average.

    OPEC’s oil production jumped to a 2018 high in July, as Saudi Arabia and its close Gulf allies boosted production. The production volumes were also increased due to the acceptance of a new member, the Congo Republic, which has been a member now for more than a month. OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 70,000 bpd from June to stand at 32.64 million bpd in July—the highest production level for 2018 so far. Saudi Arabia’s production in July has been 10.65 mil-lion bpd (up from 10.60 million bpd in June). The biggest drop in production was in Iran—by 100,000 bpd, as U.S. sanctions loom, serving as a deterrent for buyers. The other OPEC members with drops in production were Venezuela, Angola, and Libya. OPEC’s compliance rate dropped to 111 percent in July from a revised 116 percent in June, still above the 100-percent compliance rate agreed upon at the June meeting.

    Saudi Arabia halted shipments through the crucial chokepoint of Bab el-Mandeb last week after Houthi rebels attacked two Aramco tankers. Nearly 5 million barrels per day of oil volumes pass through the narrow strait between the horn of Africa and Yemen. As per some versions, Saudi officials could be trying to draw western powers into the war with Yemen by sounding the alarm on the threat to oil shipments, or it could be putting pressure on Europe to take a harder line on Iran.

    The big driver in determining the balance in the physical market will be how much oil from Iran is lost due to U.S. sanctions. And that means that the Trump administration will have a lot of influence over what happens next. Iranian officials said that oil prices would rise if the U.S. did not grant waivers to countries purchasing Iranian oil. As per Iran, it would be wrong to assume that Saudi Arabia could cover for the supply shortfall.

    Anyway, at the moment some Indian companies (India is the second biggest buyer for Iranian oil) already reduced or even cancelled orders for Iranian crude oil because they couldn’t obtain insurance for the shipment, due to U.S. sanctions. Besides, some big Indian refiners worry that their access to the U.S. financial system could be cut off if they continue to import Iranian oil.  The cancellations suggest U.S. sanctions are going be rather effective. Iran in response is trying to offer India cargo insurance and tankers operated by Iranian companies.

    Oil and gas rig workers conducted a 12-hour strike on Jul.30 at platforms in the North Sea operated by Total, in the latest industrial action by the employees. The dispute arose after Total wanted to place workers at the platforms on a three-week rotation system instead of two. A week ago oil and gas rig workers staged a 24-hour strike at Total’s oil and gas platforms Alwyn, Elgin, and Dunbar. Due to the strike, gas flows to the UK shores were disrupted last week, but stored crude oil was expected to offset any impacts on oil supply.

    As the U.S.-China trade war is escalating, China is looking to boost its economy with measures to expand domestic demand and promote investments, including in infrastructure. In the oil market, the Chinese economic and fiscal package boosted investor confidence that a potentially stronger Chinese economy would raise oil demand. This news became a potential supporting factor for fuel prices.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has invited U.S. President Donald Trump to Moscow. Putin added that he is also ready to travel to Washington to meet Trump but said conditions need to be right for a meeting to take place. Russia and the United States also have plans for contacts at G20 summits and other international gatherings. Earlier it was announced that U.S. president wants to meet with Putin at the White House in 2019 - after the Justice Department’s probe into Russia’s alleged interference in the 2016 U.S. election has been completed. Anyway, global fuel market does not see any real impact from top U.S.-Russian contacts at the moment.

    President Trump boasted about a breakthrough in trade relations with Europe. He said the two sides would have talks on zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods. Trump also suggested that Europe would buy up American LNG. The market welcomed the easing of relations. But already, both sides far apart on whether or not agriculture should even be considered as part of the negotiations.

    Weekly U.S. oil production dropped by about 100,000 bpd to 10.9 million bpd last week. The country has added nearly 1 million bpd in production since November, due to rapid increases in shale drilling. In another worrying sign, the U.S. rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by 3 to 861 last week. That was the first rig count rise in three weeks, pointing to signs of U.S. output possible growth already this week.

    Oil and fuel prices took a breather in the second half of July, but the price correction may have been a temporary reprieve rather than the start of another decline. We expect bunker prices may turn into a phase of irregular changes with no firm trend next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2024 March 28

18:05 Jan De Nul, ENGIE and Equans launch a pilot project centred around the use of Vanadium Redox Flow batteries
17:35 Latvian port equipment manufacturer Bleste introduces new bulk handling ‘bucket’
17:05 Investors upgrade Navios Maritime Partners
16:25 DEME reports 22% increase in the orderbook and a record-high turnover of 3.3 billion euros in 2023
16:14 MABUX: Bunker Outlook, Week 13, 2024
15:41 AD Ports Group announced the opening of Saadiyat Marina & Ferry Terminal and Rabdan Marina
15:11 Sydney invests $11.5 million in two new operational vessels designed by Incat Crowther
14:55 China’s Jinzhao wins Peru $405m port construction contract
14:13 APM Terminals Moín handled six million TEU
13:48 ClassNK grants Innovation Endorsements for Products & Solutions to two innovative initiatives by MOL
13:37 Konecranes launches its flagship Konecranes X-series industrial crane
12:53 United European Car Carriers UECC spearheads collaboration with industry leaders to advance CNSL as a sustainable marine fuel
12:26 Ocean Network Express announces Transpacific service
11:48 Yang Ming announces 2025 Trans-Pacific service network
11:24 Fincantieri signs contract for the supply of two PPAs to Indonesia
10:42 Maersk transported more than 660,000 TEU using clean fuel in 2023
10:23 Documentation delays push industry costs to $3bn
09:48 PONANT and FARWIND Energy partner to develop green hydrogen refueling solutions

2024 March 27

18:22 Bureau Veritas awards world’s first prototype certification for SolarDuck’s floating offshore solar solution
17:58 The recently converted Allseas's shallow water pipelay barge starts preparations for its first commercial project
17:38 The Port of Rotterdam calls on the European Commission and Parliament to focus on actively promoting green energy
15:23 SEFE to become sole shareholder of WIGA
14:53 Ocean Installer secures yet another SLM contract with Equinor
14:23 Cadeler signs offshore wind turbine installation contract for the vessel Wind Scylla
13:42 Carnival Cruise Line orders 5th Excel-class cruise ship
13:11 Maersk and MSC overcharging cargo owners for EU ETS, says T&E
12:52 The Port Authority of Valencia launches the ZAL project in the Port of Valencia
12:11 Clarkson Port Services and Peak Group collaborate to deliver Port Agency services across the North Sea
11:42 Wan Hai Lines holds ship naming ceremony for new vessels
11:24 Consolidated shipping lines EBIT loss was $1.44 billion in Q4 2023: Sea-Intelligence
10:49 Seaspan Shipyards receives long-term contracts for the pre-construction work of the the Canadian Coast Guard's first six multi-mission vessels
10:14 Woodside completes sale of 10% scarborough interest

2024 March 26

18:02 COSCO Shipping Lines introduces new Americas service
17:30 Davie awarded first contract for design of icebreaker fleet under Canada’s National Shipbuilding Strategy
17:04 Sanctions complicate Arctic LNG ship sales, Hanwha Ocean says - Bloomberg
16:57 Terntank places an order for 1+1 additional wind/ methanol-ready hybrid tanker
16:28 BW LNG completes acquisition of two TFDE vessels from Stena Bulk
15:50 Hanwha Ocean develops VR-based special vehicle simulator
15:20 TotalEnergies and SINOPEC join forces to produce sustainable jet fuel at a SINOPEC's refinery
14:52 Wärtsilä Lifecycle Agreement to guarantee operational reliability of new wind farm installation vessel
14:23 Hudong-Zhonghua launches two LNG carriers
13:51 Cargo ship hits Baltimore’s Key Bridge
13:12 Final sanctioned tanker with Russian Sokol oil to reach China port - Reuters
12:42 Adani Ports acquires 95% of Odisha's Gopalpur Port from SP Group for $162 million
12:21 IHI and Yara Clean Ammonia agree to jointly assess clean ammonia business collaboration
11:41 Yara Clean Ammonia and Azane granted safety permit to build world's first low emission ammonia bunkering terminal
11:16 Wartsila and Royal Caribbean Group celebrate 15 years of collaboration on digital transformation
10:46 A global carbon tax on shipping is coming, says ABS Chairman and CEO
10:21 Eni, Fincantieri and RINA establish partnership for maritime transport decarbonization

2024 March 25

18:07 The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore continues to investigate reports of oil spills off the port of Tuas
17:31 “K” Line, NIPPON HAKUYO and OPT Gate sign an agreement for a new fire detection system for car carriers
17:07 Greek merchant fleet recorded slight decline in January 2024
16:47 Hanwha Ocean Plans to develop green technology and naval ships
16:25 U-Ming Singapore and ITOCHU sign milestone MoU for the joint development of ammonia dual-fuel and de-carbonized vessels
15:34 Svitzer targets methanol-fuelled MAN 175DF-M engine for tug application
15:04 Wallenius Wilhelmsen signs contracts for four 9,300 CEU vessels with China Merchants Jinling Shipyard
14:40 Taiwan International Port to upgrade terminal facility at Kaohsiung
13:59 Сruise ship Carnival Freedom catches fire near Bahamas
12:59 Hanwha Ocean wins 2.4 tln-won order for 8 LNG ships
11:16 Inland Ports meet in Paris to talk about the innovation potential of inland ports
10:50 IMO agrees possible outline for maritime “net-zero framework”
10:24 Hapag-Lloyd to continue to avoid the Red Sea route
09:58 QatarEnergy enters time charter agreements with Nakilat for the operation of 25 LNG vessels

2024 March 24

16:18 Inchgreen Marine Park upgraded as part of £11m investment
15:14 A ribbon-cutting ceremony for Solent Rail Terminal Rail was held at the Port of Southampton
14:08 ESNA and Strategic Marine join forces to offer Surface Effect Ship (“SES”) Crew Transfer Vessels (“CTV”) to the market
13:07 First LNG powered vessel calls at HIP
12:49 Inter-array cable installation completed at Neart na Gaoithe offshore wind farm
11:32 Equinor ASA posts net income at USD 11.9 billion in 2023
09:25 Edda Wind announces the sale of Edda Passat