• 2018 June 21 15:50

    MABUX: All eyes are on what course of action OPEC will call for

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have had rather volatile week with irregular fluctuations. Plenty of factors are influencing fuel prices right now, and the OPEC+ decision expected on June 22 will be the single most important driver in the near-term. There are still fears that OPEC could ease production curbs to offset falling supplies in Venezuela and an expected drop in Iran oil exports as U.S. sanctions loom.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) demonstrated clearly defined downward trend in the period of June 14 – June 21:
        
    380 HSFO - down from 429.86 to 424,36 USD/MT (-5.50)
    180 HSFO - down from 471.79 to 462,29 USD/MT (-9.50)
    MGO         - down from 678.71 to 661.36 USD/MT (-17.35)


    On the forecast side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that robust U.S. shale growth will underpin 2.0 million barrels per day (bpd) of non-OPEC supply growth this year, plus 1.7 million of non-OPEC output gains in 2019. That should more than meet demand growth. The agency also warned that even if the Iran-Venezuela supply gap is plugged, the market will be finely balanced next year, and vulnerable to prices rising higher in the event of further disruption.

    Russia and Saudi Arabia said ahead of OPEC meeting, that even if the current OPEC/NOPEC oil production cut deal goes to pieces, both largest oil producers will be willing to go it alone, suggesting that some kind of market-managing efforts may remain in place, even if Iran and Iraq begin to disturb the collaboration. At the moment it is reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia will propose an increase in production beginning from July 1, with the range of the suggested in-crease at between 500,000 bpd and 1.5 million bpd. Both countries increased their May oil production to calm the oil market.

    Meantime, some OPEC members (including Iran, Venezuela, and Iraq) are opposing an increase in production and argue that the pact should stay intact through the end of 2018, as planned. Iran’s OPEC representative said the country will veto any proposal for a production increase with the support of Venezuela and Iraq. Venezuela is already struggling with an inexorable decline in its oil production, which to a significant extent drove the overcompliance of the OPEC+ bloc with the agreed production cuts. Iraq, for its part, is eager to expand its production capacity but it will take time to do so. So, right now these three OPEC members are at a clear disadvantage to those capable of quickly restoring pre-agreement production levels.

    There are a few possibilities from the upcoming OPEC meeting. First, Saudi Arabia and Russia may convince the group to agree to an increase in output, and while everyone nominally is al-lowed to increase output a bit, the two top producers make up the biggest share of the increase. Another possibility is a breakdown in negotiations and Saudi Arabia and Russia go their own way, increasing output. Or, talks could breakdown and there is no change in output, although with the upside risk to prices, this seems unlikely.

    Venezuela’s production plummeted again in May, by 42,500 bpd from April to below 1.4 mil-lion bpd—1.392 million bpd. The IEA forecasts that Venezuela’s oil production could drop to just 800,000 bpd or even lower next year. Venezuela’s rig count number is in the 20s, while it needs it into above-40 territory to sustain production flat.

    The major Libyan oil ports of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider were closed and evacuated after armed brigades opposed to the eastern commander Khalifa Haftar stormed them, causing a production loss of around 260,000 barrels per day (bpd). The two facilities account for 40 percent of Libya’s oil exports. Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said it had evacuated all staff from the two terminals as a precautionary measure. More than half the storage tanks at both terminals were badly damaged in previous fighting and have yet to be repaired, though there have been regular loadings from Es Sider.

    It was reported a dip in the number of active oil and gas rigs in the United States last week. Oil and gas rigs decreased by 3 rigs, with the number of oil rigs increasing by 1, and the number of gas rigs decreasing by 4. The oil and gas rig count now stands at 1,059—up 126 from this time last year.

    US oil production continues putting downward pressure on fuel prices, and for the week ending June 15, production reached 10.900 million bpd—close to 11 million bpd production that many had forecast for the year.

    The U.S. Federal Reserve announced another rate hike, which helped edge up the dollar to a new high for the year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is heading in the other direction in an effort to keep sovereign bond yields under control. The ECB said it would keep interest rates low through at least next summer. The diverging policy paths for the two central banks points to a further strengthening of the dollar relative to the euro.

    India and China have discussed creating an oil buyers’ club to be able to negotiate better prices with oil exporting countries and will be looking to import more U.S. crude oil in order to reduce OPEC’s influence, both over the global oil market and over prices. India has been saying for months that oil prices have risen too much to be sustainable for many oil-importing countries.

    More crude oil is being stored on ships at sea in European waters than at any time in the past 18 months. A quarter of global floating storage is now located in European waters, compared to just 10 percent in March and April. The sudden increase in oil stored at sea is the result of Asian buyers raising up cargoes from the U.S., rather than from Nigeria, Angola and the Middle East.

    Sentiment on fuel prices remained mostly negative, as markets continue to fear OPEC, as its meeting could ease production curbs to offset falling supplies in Venezuela and an expected drop in Iran oil exports as U.S. sanctions loom.  So, all eyes are on what course of action OPEC will call for.  We expect OPEC will increase the output and so bunker prices may continue downward evolution next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 November 19

16:32 BIMCO standard ship repair contracts overhauled
16:05 Port of Hamburg railborne container transport up 4.3 percent in the first nine months of 2018
15:44 FESCO and DB Cargo plan to launch joint transit shipments from China to Europe via Kaliningrad
15:10 Costamare announces the acquisition of the York Capital majority interest in five 14,000 TEU containerships
14:56 Half a billion tones of Kazakhstan oil lifted from CPC Marine Terminal
14:47 Saipem 7000 semi-submersible at Damen Verolme Rotterdam for DPS upgrade
14:33 OpenRisk launches guideline for risk management at sea to improve response to accidental spills
13:59 NCSP Group's consolidated cargo turnover for January-September totaled 105,253 thousand tons
13:11 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO down to RUB 19,660 in RF spot market
12:47 ABP invests over £1 million on a rooftop solar project at the Port of Goole
12:18 Damen supports 2nd Dredging and Hydraulic Engineering Structures Congress as its General Sponsor
12:00 The Fjords plans to add another all electric passenger vessel to its fleet
11:36 TOTE Services' Philip Greene Jr. retires next year
11:02 Damen Shipyards Group celebrates Multraship Carrousel RAVE Tug winning KNVTS Ship of the Year Award
10:44 Port of Oakland cargo volume up 3.9 percent in August - October 2018
10:43 Throughput of Port Vysotsky up 9.4% to 6.34 million tonnes in 10M’18
10:19 Brent Crude futures price up 0.69% to $67.22, Light Sweet Crude – up 1.02% to $57.26
09:57 Media Group PortNews issues special edition of its magazine for Transport Week 2018
09:35 Rosmorrechflot reduced operation period of locks in Volga-Don Basin
09:18 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,031 points

2018 November 18

16:21 Wellington ferry skipper fined $1,688 after grounding
15:04 SFL continues its fleet renewal programme, to sell its 2002-built VLCC
14:37 Austal delivers Expeditionary Fast Transport ship USNS Burlington to U.S. Navy
14:26 Lockheed Martin gets $282M contract mod for four MMSCs project
14:13 Ulstein Verft starts construction of largest hybrid ship for Color Line
13:41 Klaveness extends contract of affreightment with South32 Marketing Pte Ltd
12:06 PaxOcean wins three newbuilding contracts from Royal IHC

2018 November 17

18:29 Sanmar delivers Robert Allan-designed new tractor tug Svitzer Meridian
18:02 MSC launches train between Giengen and Trieste
17:51 BGC Partners acquires Poten & Partners
16:41 ABB wins significant asset management solution order in China
16:11 New Secretary-General appointed to the Paris MoU on PSC

2018 November 16

18:07 Ocean Network Express announces delivery of 14,000 - TEU containership “ONE COLUMBA”
18:02 Sovcomflot reported its results for Q3 and 9M ending 30 September 2018
18:01 Throughput of port Vyborg in 10M’18 up 23% Y-o-Y to 1.53 million tonnes
17:42 Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia approves amendments to railway transport tariffs
17:30 Keppel announces settlement agreement for termination of an integration project
17:17 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in 10M’18 grew by 5% Y-o-Y to 11.83 million tonnes
17:07 Van Oord and Ace Aquatec making FaunaGuard available for rest of the world
17:06 PaxOcean delivers largest FSRU to be built in China
16:55 NYK develops advance water-in-oil alarm to prevent engine trouble
16:55 Throughput of port Primorsk in 10M’18 fell by 10% Y-o-Y to 44.42 million tonnes
16:33 Throughput of port Vysotsk in 10M’18 climbed by 6% Y-o-Y to 15.34 million tonnes
16:28 Maersk Line receives Service Innovation Award for its Remote Container Management product
16:10 Bureau Veritas Chongqing Liansheng wins Global Project Excellence Award of IPMA 2018
15:48 Port of Ust-Luga handled 81.50 million tonnes in 10M’18, down 4% Y-o-Y
15:29 Port of St. Petersburg handled 49.14 million tonnes in 10M’18, up 12% Y-o-Y
15:10 ZIM announces Q3 2018 results
14:45 Jan De Nul supports the 6th Forum of Dredging Companies as its Sponsor
14:24 Decision on construction of 4th and 5th nuclear-powered icebreakers expected before year end
14:10 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v Thetis with Hudson
13:32 Entry fee for vessels to be changed at the Port of Ventspils in 2019
13:10 Global Ship Lease completes strategic combination with Poseidon Containers
12:55 Ship inspection to keep high standards
12:31 GoodBulk announces delivery of Supramax vessel to its new owners
12:04 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from ISC to North Europe and the Mediterranean
11:30 GTT receives an order from HHI to design the tanks of two new LNG carriers
11:25 Multipurpose Reloading Complex (Ust-Luga) boosts allocations for its development programme
11:04 ForSea completes conversion of the world’s largest battery ferries, powered by ABB
10:44 Wärtsilä, LUT University and Nebraska Public Power District to develop business case for alternative fuels