• 2018 June 21 15:50

    MABUX: All eyes are on what course of action OPEC will call for

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have had rather volatile week with irregular fluctuations. Plenty of factors are influencing fuel prices right now, and the OPEC+ decision expected on June 22 will be the single most important driver in the near-term. There are still fears that OPEC could ease production curbs to offset falling supplies in Venezuela and an expected drop in Iran oil exports as U.S. sanctions loom.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) demonstrated clearly defined downward trend in the period of June 14 – June 21:
        
    380 HSFO - down from 429.86 to 424,36 USD/MT (-5.50)
    180 HSFO - down from 471.79 to 462,29 USD/MT (-9.50)
    MGO         - down from 678.71 to 661.36 USD/MT (-17.35)


    On the forecast side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that robust U.S. shale growth will underpin 2.0 million barrels per day (bpd) of non-OPEC supply growth this year, plus 1.7 million of non-OPEC output gains in 2019. That should more than meet demand growth. The agency also warned that even if the Iran-Venezuela supply gap is plugged, the market will be finely balanced next year, and vulnerable to prices rising higher in the event of further disruption.

    Russia and Saudi Arabia said ahead of OPEC meeting, that even if the current OPEC/NOPEC oil production cut deal goes to pieces, both largest oil producers will be willing to go it alone, suggesting that some kind of market-managing efforts may remain in place, even if Iran and Iraq begin to disturb the collaboration. At the moment it is reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia will propose an increase in production beginning from July 1, with the range of the suggested in-crease at between 500,000 bpd and 1.5 million bpd. Both countries increased their May oil production to calm the oil market.

    Meantime, some OPEC members (including Iran, Venezuela, and Iraq) are opposing an increase in production and argue that the pact should stay intact through the end of 2018, as planned. Iran’s OPEC representative said the country will veto any proposal for a production increase with the support of Venezuela and Iraq. Venezuela is already struggling with an inexorable decline in its oil production, which to a significant extent drove the overcompliance of the OPEC+ bloc with the agreed production cuts. Iraq, for its part, is eager to expand its production capacity but it will take time to do so. So, right now these three OPEC members are at a clear disadvantage to those capable of quickly restoring pre-agreement production levels.

    There are a few possibilities from the upcoming OPEC meeting. First, Saudi Arabia and Russia may convince the group to agree to an increase in output, and while everyone nominally is al-lowed to increase output a bit, the two top producers make up the biggest share of the increase. Another possibility is a breakdown in negotiations and Saudi Arabia and Russia go their own way, increasing output. Or, talks could breakdown and there is no change in output, although with the upside risk to prices, this seems unlikely.

    Venezuela’s production plummeted again in May, by 42,500 bpd from April to below 1.4 mil-lion bpd—1.392 million bpd. The IEA forecasts that Venezuela’s oil production could drop to just 800,000 bpd or even lower next year. Venezuela’s rig count number is in the 20s, while it needs it into above-40 territory to sustain production flat.

    The major Libyan oil ports of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider were closed and evacuated after armed brigades opposed to the eastern commander Khalifa Haftar stormed them, causing a production loss of around 260,000 barrels per day (bpd). The two facilities account for 40 percent of Libya’s oil exports. Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said it had evacuated all staff from the two terminals as a precautionary measure. More than half the storage tanks at both terminals were badly damaged in previous fighting and have yet to be repaired, though there have been regular loadings from Es Sider.

    It was reported a dip in the number of active oil and gas rigs in the United States last week. Oil and gas rigs decreased by 3 rigs, with the number of oil rigs increasing by 1, and the number of gas rigs decreasing by 4. The oil and gas rig count now stands at 1,059—up 126 from this time last year.

    US oil production continues putting downward pressure on fuel prices, and for the week ending June 15, production reached 10.900 million bpd—close to 11 million bpd production that many had forecast for the year.

    The U.S. Federal Reserve announced another rate hike, which helped edge up the dollar to a new high for the year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is heading in the other direction in an effort to keep sovereign bond yields under control. The ECB said it would keep interest rates low through at least next summer. The diverging policy paths for the two central banks points to a further strengthening of the dollar relative to the euro.

    India and China have discussed creating an oil buyers’ club to be able to negotiate better prices with oil exporting countries and will be looking to import more U.S. crude oil in order to reduce OPEC’s influence, both over the global oil market and over prices. India has been saying for months that oil prices have risen too much to be sustainable for many oil-importing countries.

    More crude oil is being stored on ships at sea in European waters than at any time in the past 18 months. A quarter of global floating storage is now located in European waters, compared to just 10 percent in March and April. The sudden increase in oil stored at sea is the result of Asian buyers raising up cargoes from the U.S., rather than from Nigeria, Angola and the Middle East.

    Sentiment on fuel prices remained mostly negative, as markets continue to fear OPEC, as its meeting could ease production curbs to offset falling supplies in Venezuela and an expected drop in Iran oil exports as U.S. sanctions loom.  So, all eyes are on what course of action OPEC will call for.  We expect OPEC will increase the output and so bunker prices may continue downward evolution next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2019 February 23

16:03 USCG terminates voyage for illegal fishing in Tortugas Ecological Reserve
15:51 Herbert-ABS launches HECSTAB Offshore Stability Evaluation Software
15:36 Fleet Xpress powers new Lindblad Expeditions-National Geographic ship
13:38 VT Halter Marine gets Navy's APL(S) design and construction contract modification
12:24 Brunvoll to deliver propulsion systems to autonomous ship
11:14 Austal begins construction of USS Canberra (LCS 30)

2019 February 22

18:08 Pacific Fleet AS-34 underwater vehicle practises maneuvering in Kola Bay
17:50 Krasnoye Sormovo launches first ship in new RSD59 series of four ships ordered by STLC
17:35 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to the Middle East Gulf
17:05 Bilfinger expands in international maritime scrubber market
16:35 Aker Solutions to develop digital twin for Wintershall’s Nova field
16:12 Chiquita's new container ship pays its first visit to Kloosterboer in North Sea Port
15:31 DOF awarded contracts for three ROV Support Vessels in Brazil
15:12 Biggest wellboat in the world’s hull arrives at Havyard yard in Leirvik
14:55 Zaliv shipyard (Kerch) launched search-and-rescue ship of Project А163
14:12 Tideway completes installation of longest AC offshore wind export cable at Hornsea One in the UK
13:48 32 vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on February 21-22
13:30 GTT creates a Digital Hub of Excellence in Singapore
13:04 The Spectrum of the Seas leaves the MEYER WERFT's dock
12:49 Sea Port of Saint-Petersburg upgrades its cane equipment
12:30 Port of Rotterdam bunker figures down to 9.5 million m3 in 2018
12:03 Algoma announces purchase of additional product tanker
11:30 Van Oord is one of the founding partners and main sponsor of PortXL
11:02 Fincantieri and Abu Dhabi Shipbuilding reach an agreement to cooperate in the UAE shipbuilding segment
10:30 Mitsubishi Shipbuilding holds christening ceremony for next-generation LNG carrier "MARVEL CRANE"
10:20 Port of Yeisk handled 159,000 tonnes of cargo year-to-date
10:00 CMA CGM implements Port Congestion Surcharge from Med and North Europe to Canada East Coast
09:58 The Netherlands ratifies ship recycling convention
09:35 Brent Crude futures price is down 0.24% to $66.91, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.16% to $56.87
09:17 Baltic Dry Index is up to 630 points

2019 February 21

18:33 AML’s MVP200 selected for new Swedish “RV Svea”
18:16 ​Shearwater GeoServices and TGS partner for major Brazil survey
18:03 NYK selected as a White 500 company for third consecutive year
17:55 Rosmorport to dredge 12.1 million cbm of material in 2019
17:34 Boskalis expands market position in marine survey through acquisition Horizon
17:29 GE to supply LM2500 gas turbine auxiliary equipment for Indian Navy’s P17A frigates
17:11 Hydrographic Company to get 15 new vessels by 2024
17:05 Rotterdam port innovation programme PortXL participants announced
17:03 H.H. Sheikh Theyab updated on ADNOC L&S strategy to become a global shipping champion
16:14 SCHOTTEL presents new shallow-water thruster SPJ 30 up to 150 kW
15:35 Forth Ports Group receives planning consent for new terminal at the Port of Tilbury
15:16 Algoma announces the Algoma Conveyor is headed for Canada
14:32 A.P. Moller - Maersk accelerates transformation and grows revenue in 2018
14:11 Teekay Tankers reports fourth quarter and annual 2018 results
13:46 Santos posts it 2018 net profit of $630 million
13:15 Gazprom Neft demonstrates solid growth across all key financial indicators in 2018
13:13 A.P. Moller - Maersk initiates demerger and separate listing of Maersk Drilling
12:49 ESPS Relampago’s crew carried out maritime training exercises with the Seychelles Coastguard
11:57 First meeting of Eastern Partnership LNG Network takes place in Warsaw
11:28 42 vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on February 20-21
11:03 The UK publishes draft UK MRV legislation following Brexit
10:39 Taganrog Sea Commercial Port spent USD 60,500 under its social programme in 2018
10:16 IMO treaties ratified by Guyana
09:54 Allocations of Taganrog Sea Commercial Port for its environmental programme in 2018 totaled USD 96,400
09:31 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.18% to $67.2, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.51% to $57.45
09:15 Baltic Dry Index is down to 622 points

2019 February 20

18:13 Klaipėdos nafta carried out the 10th operation of reloading LNG from a gas carrier to ground storage tanks
17:52 VNIIR-Progress St. Petersburg supplies electrical equipment for Atomflot icebreaker
17:28 Documents on concession model for Taman dry cargo area project to be submitted to RF Govt in March 2019
17:04 Cammell Laird stages ‘float-off’ for new £10m ferry for Red Funnel