• 2018 February 8 17:14

    Bunker prices may continue downward evolution next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil prices fell back suddenly over the last few trading sessions. First, a rebound for the dollar led to a steep decline in indexes on Feb.01. Then, sudden turmoil in the broader financial system increased sharply the volatility in the stock market, causing the biggest single-day upheaval in years. One of the main industrial indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 600 points, only the ninth time in history that a fall of that magnitude has occurred. High OPEC compliance and falling Venezuelan production more or less offset surging output from U.S. shale and an uptick in inventories in the meantime.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) demonstrated a steep decline in the period of Feb.01 - Feb.08:
        
    380 HSFO - down from 375.36 to 359,57 USD/MT  (-15.79)
    180 HSFO - down from 413,36 to 396,93 USD/MT  (-16.46)
    MGO         - down from 643.07 to 614,29  USD/MT  (-28.78)


    Hedge funds have cut their bullish exposure to petroleum for the first time in six weeks as oil prices stalled and sentiment turned more cautious amid concerns about an increasingly crowded trade. At the moment, there is not enough data to determine whether the position reduction was merely a pause after an extraordinary bull market or the start of a more sustained pull back.

    Goldman Sachs in turn predicts that the oil market has likely balanced, and that Brent Crude will reach $82.50 a barrel within six months. Bank sees the price of Brent reaching $75 per barrel within three months, lifting its short-term oil price projection from the previous $62 forecast. As per Goldman, the rebalancing of the oil market has likely been achieved, six months sooner than it was expected. The Bank considers, that the decline in excess inventories was fast-forwarded in late 2017 by stellar demand growth, high OPEC compliance, heavy maintenance as well as collapsing Venezuela production.

    Production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose in January from an eight-month low as higher output from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia offset a further decline in Venezuela and strong compliance with a supply reduction pact. OPEC produced 32.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, up 100,000 bpd from December. Last month's total was revised down by 110,000 bpd to the lowest since April 2017. Even so, adherence by producers included in the deal to curb supply rose to 138 percent from 137 percent in December, suggesting commitment is not wavering even as oil prices hit their highest level since 2014.

    While the production cut pact has been a success, there has been growing speculation that the higher oil prices could unravel the deal, because OPEC and/or Russia could either start cheating or see rising U.S. supply as a threat to prices and market share.

    Compliance at OPEC was mostly boosted by the involuntary decline of production in Venezuela. Barclays estimates that Venezuela's production could fall by 700,000 bpd this year, averaging 1.43 million bpd. The crisis continues to erode the country's production base, a drop off that accelerated at the end of 2017. The reasons for the decline are an economic crisis that is only worsening, no cash for investment or even maintenance, a debt crisis, U.S. sanctions, the politicization of PDVSA and a brain drain from the company. Meanwhile, U.S. seemed to offer some measures of support for a military coup in the country. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said recently that there will be a change in Venezuela while Maduro could choose to just leave, that would be the easiest.

    As for Russia, Moscow is likely to keep its compliance rate close to 100 percent in 2018. However, it is not excluded, that Russian oil companies may become increasingly nervous about the deal preventing them from ramping up production. One of the scenarios could be that Russian oil firms may consider that the production pact is nearing its end and will ramp up drilling if oil prices continue to be well above $60 and the global stockpiles continue to drop.

    Besides, in November 2017, Russian national pipeline monopoly Transneft said that the sulfur content of Urals oil exports to Europe would reach a critical level in 2017 and continue to rise in 2018 as more low-sulfur crude oil is shipped to China. The company had no technological capacity to continue reducing the sulfur level of Urals crude for European buyers. European refiners are left with lower-quality imports from Russia and are now reviewing how much Russian crude they would buy and at what price: the factor which may change sentiments in global fuel market in a near-term outlook. As the first sign, Saudi Arabia over the weekend said it had cut the official selling prices for its crude to European customers.

    The number of oil drilling rigs in the U.S. climbed for a second week in a row. It rose by 6 to 765 last week, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead. Besides, the data showed that U.S. crude stockpiles rose 1.9 million barrels last week, which marked the second increase in 12 weeks. The report also showed that U.S. crude oil production, driven by shale extraction, hit 10.25 million barrels per day, the highest level since the early 1970s and close to the output of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia. Increasing drilling activity for new production means output is expected to grow further.

    China surpassed the U.S. in annual gross crude oil imports in 2017. It imported on average 8.4 million bpd in 2017, compared with 7.9 million bpd of imports for the United States. In total petroleum and other liquid fuels imports, China had become the top global net importer back in 2013. The continuous rise in Chinese oil imports is due to several factors: declining domestic production, growing oil and liquid fuels consumption, a build-up in strategic reserves, refinery sector reform which allows independent refiners to import quotas of crude oil, and increasing refinery capacity and utilization. Last year Russia was China's top oil supplier for a second year running, with Russian crude oil sales up 14 percent and beating OPEC's leader and largest exporter Saudi Arabia for a second consecutive year. Growing Chinese market is still one of the main supportive factors to global fuel indexes.

    There are still signs that the global fuel market is tightening and it is expected that the process will continue in the second half of this year. However, forecasted increase in U.S. crude inventories over the next few weeks and months may change sentiments drastically. Traders may interpret rising U.S. oil production and inventory builds as a sign that the market tightening has slowed with a possibility of downside risk.  We expect bunker prices may continue downward evolution next week while the volatility increases.



     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 May 21

15:59 Federal funding contributes to critical infrastructure projects to support trade through the Port of Vancouver
15:31 Vympel Shipyard launches 75th Mangust patrol boat for Russian FSB Border Service (photo)
15:00 Marine Recruiting Agency starts implementing a package of educational software for UCL Holding companies
14:29 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO up to RUB 6,326 in RF spot market
14:03 'Sulphur cap chaos in 2020' warn world’s shipowners - ICS
13:57 BMT supports installation of Kriegers Flak Foundations
13:53 Multipurpose Reloading Complex doubles its investments in development
13:27 Financial report of Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company receives positive review
12:58 Tallink wins prestigious tourism award at Asia’s biggest tourism fair ITB China
12:29 IMO supported Regional Workshop for Latin-American countries to implement treaties dealing with liability and compensation
11:56 Vladimir Serebrennikov elected as Director General of Arkhangelsk Sea Commercial Port
11:20 FESCO reduces delivery time from Republic of Korea to Russia from 23 to 15 days
10:31 Water Transport newspaper celebrates its centenary on 31 May 2018 at Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library
10:08 MOL starts selling of new "Viable Organism Analyzer" for ballast water
10:02 Brent Crude futures price up 0.7% to $79.06, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.69% to $71.86
09:38 NOVATEK creates Maritime Arctic Transport Company
09:17 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,273 points

2018 May 20

09:21 Hapag-Lloyd announces FAK rates from North Europe to Caribbean, Central America and South America West Coast
09:19 EU Ambassadors visit Peru’s largest multipurpose terminal
09:16 SEA\LNG bolsters its knowledge base with the addition of MAN Diesel & Turbo
09:13 Finnlines starts new direct service between Helsinki and Aarhus
09:11 Canadian Coast Guard selects ABS for fleetwide contract

2018 May 19

10:56 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to North Africa
10:01 CMA CGM announces PSS from Nigeria to India and Vietnam
07:50 Port of Kiel welcomes “Saga Sapphire” maiden visit
07:47 The “GRANDE HALIFAX” christened in Halifax

2018 May 18

18:00 Denis Manturov appointed as the Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation
17:44 Port of Hamburg posts Q1 2018 results
17:39 Yevgeny Ditrikh appointed as the Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation (photo)
17:38 Seaspan accepts delivery of third 10000 TEU SAVER containership in four ship series
17:35 Prosafe extends standstill agreement with Cosco
17:17 Okskaya Sudoverf delivered Belmax 1, first non-self-propelled tank barge of Project ROB20
16:51 Special event on ports at IMO Headquarters will focus on single window, ports and logistics
16:35 Port of Hamburg receives ‘Best Global Seaport’ award
16:05 IMO begins scoping exercise on autonomous vessels
15:42 Brand-new jetty at Rotterdam LBC Tank Terminals ready for vessels
15:40 HELCOM group meets in Riga to discuss nutrients from land-based sources
15:39 Multimillion pound investment continues in Grangemouth, Scotland's premier port
15:38 India benefits from IMO training on port emissions
15:11 Nevsky Shipyard starts sea trials of medium sea tanker of project 23130 (photo)
14:44 Star Marine takes delivery of RAstar 3400 quartet
13:53 Ladozhsky Bridge in the Leningrad Region drawn twice to let PORT FLEET’s tugboats through
13:47 Eniram signs MoU with Arista Shipping to participate in Project Forward for developing new generation of bulk carriers
13:29 Statoil ASA changes name to Equinor ASA
13:00 Cargo turnover at inland water ways of Azov-Don Basin down 12.7% to 606,000 tonnes
12:42 ABS to provide class and certification services for the entire Canadian Coast Guard fleet
11:57 Astrakhan branch of Zvyozdochka shipyard launches rescue towboat for RF Defence Ministry (photo)
11:35 Huntington Ingalls authenticates keel of submarine Montana (SSN 794)
11:18 Akademik Lomonosov FPU arrives in the Kola Bay (photo)
11:03 UAE signs MoU with ITF
10:32 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in 4M’18 up 10% Y-o-Y to 4.71 million tonnes
10:30 Scorpio Tankers announces sale and leaseback agreements for five product tankers
10:13 Brent Crude futures price up 0.30% to $79.54, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.21% to $71.64
09:56 ZNT Yard launched the lead hydrographic survey vessel and lays down two more HSVs (photo)
09:17 Baltic Dry Index fell to 1,305 points

2018 May 17

18:05 Technava and Propulsion Analytics join forces for providing management solutions to the shipping industry in Greece and Cyprus
17:54 Throughput of port Taganrog in Jan-Apr'18 up 39.8% to 1.46 million tonnes
17:35 EUROGATE chosen as “Best Green Container Terminal Operator 2018”
17:19 Throughput of port Vyborg in 4M’18 up 22% Y-o-Y to 417,000 tonnes
17:05 Costa Group and Marseille Fos Port announce partnership